Day68「外刊·精读·听力」生成式AI兴起，激发新一轮人工智能公司的投资押注
今天我们一起精读《The。Economist》2023.5.17刊
Finance & economics版块：
How to Invest in Artificial Intelligence
如何投资人工智能行业
【外刊导读】
生成式AI的兴起，激发了新一轮对于人工智能公司的投资押注。投资者们期望能够找到下一个超高市值的科技公司，但问题在于如何投资。一方面，许多革命性创新技术的价值往往被老牌科技巨头所占有。但另一方面，创业公司不会像科技巨头那样过度追求利润，因此更愿意在全新的市场和全新的技术上投入探索。但弄清创新是否具有颠覆性，对于找到下一个超高市值的科技公司至关重要。此外，看清革命性技术能否带来革命性的商业价值也同样重要。
这篇文章共8段，加油！
译文及学习笔记：
*序号按照原文段落顺序排列
*中文译文为笔者自译，仅供学习交流使用，如有任何错误或不同意见，诚请批评指正!
1
It has been a torrid 18 months for investors who bet on tech. SoftBank, a Japanese investment firm that epitomised the 2010s boom in venture capital for companies with rapid-growth ambitions, is still smarting from the shift to a world of higher interest rates and lower corporate valuations. But there is one area in which the firm, run by Son Masayoshi, its charismatic founder, wants to peek above the parapet: investments in artificial intelligence (AI).
软银是一家日本投资公司，是二十一世纪初期掀起的风险投资热潮的缩影，它们专为拥有快速增长野心的公司注入资金。这些押注了软银的投资者们煎熬了18个月，但仍然为高利率和低公司股价感到扎心。但仍有一个领域的公司不同，这家公司由富有魅力的创始人孙正义经营，他力排众议：投资人工智能。
Torrid
本意是干燥，torrid zone热带，想象一下热带沙漠撒哈拉，torrid用来描述非常炎热和干燥的事物，引申为过度和强烈，不仅是热的，而且令人无法抗拒和承受。
Epitomize
指概括人、物或概念的典型特征。epi-表示在…之上，-tom表示切入，如atom本意是不可再分的粒子。Epitomize其实是指在深入了解之后得出的总结和概括。
vt.成为…的典范(或典型)
The fighting qualities of the team are epitomized by the captain.
这个队的战斗精神从队长身上体现出来。
These movies seem to epitomize the 1950s.
这些影片似乎就是20世纪50年代的缩影。
Smart
在这里是熟词生义，smart除了表示聪明的以外，还可表示引起刺痛的。大概聪明的头脑容易说出令人刺痛的话吧。
Charismatic
形容一个人具有无法抵御的吸引力和感染力，能够赢得人们的信任和支持，并达成自己想要实现的目标或愿望。一些政治领袖往往会有Charisma。
Peek above the parapet
是指突出自己的意见或建议，在团队或集体中发表不同于常规的观点。这个习语来源于军事作战中设置在壕沟前面的矮墙，军人需趴在其后方探头窥视敌军情况，并使自己的身体暴露在敌军火力下。因此这种行为往往也会面临其他人的反对、批评和压力。"Parapet"是提供防护和额外支撑的构筑物，用于城堡、要塞等建筑物。
parapet
/ˈpærəpɪt/
n.防护矮墙
2
The advances of generative-AI platforms, such as ChatGPT, have left just about every investor discussing what to make of the incipient industry, and which firms it might upturn. Mr Son sees parallels with the early period of the internet. Generative AI could provide a new pipeline of initial public offerings—and the foundation for the next generation of mega-cap tech firms.
生成式AI平台的进步，如ChatGPT，几乎每位投资者都在讨论如何看待这个刚刚起步的行业，以及它可能会颠覆哪些公司。孙正义看出了早期互联网时期的相似性。生成式AI可以为首次公开募股提供一条新的通道——成为下一代大型科技公司的根基。
incipient
adj.初期的;早期的;初始的;刚开始的，指一个事物处于其初期的阶段，还没有完全成熟。例如"incipient technology"可以表示一项高新技术，将来可能有很大的发展前途。
3
Investors face two questions. The first is which frontier technologies will make market leaders a fortune. That is difficult enough. The second, establishing whether the value will accrue to upstarts backed by venture capital or existing technology giants, is at least as tricky. Nobody knows if it is better to have the best chatbot or plenty of customers—having a head start in a whizzy new tech is not the same as being able to make money from it. Indeed, lots of the value of revolutionary innovation is often captured by existing giants.
投资者面临两个问题。第一个是，哪些前沿技术将为领导者带来财富？这个问题十分困难。第二个是，确认由风险投资和现有的技术巨头支持的新贵是否能够实现资产增值？这个问题也同样棘手。没有人知道拥有最好的聊天机器人更好还是足够多的用户更好——创业公司在技术革新中拥有先发优势和能从中赚钱不是一回事。实际上，很多革命性创新的价值通常被现有的巨头公司所占据。
accrue
v.累积;(逐渐)增长，增加;(使钱款、债务)积累
Establish
vt.创立;设立;建立(尤指正式关系);确立;使立足;使稳固;获得接受;查实
He has just set up his own business but it will take him a while to get established .
他刚建立起自己的公司，但要站稳脚跟还得花上一段时间。
That link is an established medical fact.
那一关联是已经证实的医学事实。
Medical tests established that she was not their own child...
医学化验证实她不是他们的亲骨肉。
Whizzy
技术革新的；技术先进的，这个词最初在计算机技术和互联网领域中被广泛使用，用来形容某种程序或软件能够快速、有效地实现某个功能或者任务。
Wizzy, wizard, sorcerer, 巫师；witch女巫
4
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are three of the seven largest listed companies in America, worth a combined $3.4trn. They were founded between 1994 and 2004, emerging at a time when internet technology was new and people were spending an increasing amount of time online. Alibaba, a ..e-commerce giant, is another similar example (SoftBank’s early $20m stake in the company helped cement Mr Son’s reputation as an investor). Spotting tech trends, and developing the best platforms, generated a gargantuan amount of value for early and even not-so-early investors. Legacy firms struggled to jump on the bandwagon.
Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta是7大美国上市公司找中的三家，合计市值达3.4兆亿美元。它们在1994年至2004年之间成立，那个时代互联网科技还很新，而且人们上网的时间越来越长。..的电商巨头阿里巴巴是另一个相似的例子（软银早期对该公司投资的2000万美元稳固了孙正义投资者的地位）。发现科技趋势、开发最好的平台为早期甚至不那么早期的投资带来了巨大财富。当时的传统公司也在奋力赶上这一浪潮。
Cement
N.(干燥后硬化的)水泥;胶合剂;胶接剂;黏固剂;纽带，凝聚力
vt.(用水泥、胶等)粘结，胶合;加强，巩固(关系等)
gargantuan
/ɡɑːrˈɡæntʃuən/
adj.巨大的;庞大的
a gargantuan appetite/meal
食欲极佳；丰盛的大餐
...a marketing event of gargantuan proportions.
大规模的促销活动
bandwagon
/ˈbændwæɡən/
n.风靡的活动;时尚
The World Cup bandwagon is starting to roll.
世界杯足球赛热潮即将涌起。
So what is really happening as the information bandwagon starts to roll?
当信息大潮滚滚而来的时候究竟发生了些什么呢？
5
Will the story be the same this time around? The insights of Clayton Christensen, a management guru who pioneered a theory of innovation just as the internet giants were bursting onto the scene, can provide a useful guide. Christensen noted that smaller companies often gain traction in low-end markets and entirely new ones, which the largest incumbents eschew. The incumbents focus on deploying new technology for their existing customers and lines of business. They are not incompetent or ignorant of technological progress. Instead, they follow the seemingly correct path from a profit-maximising perspective—until it is too late and they are fatally undermined.
这次的故事还会一样吗？在互联网巨头们崭露头角之际，管理学泰斗克莱顿·克里斯坦森开创了创新理论，为它们提供了有利的指导。克里斯坦森指出，小公司往往容易在低端市场和全新市场中受欢迎，而现存的大型公司都会尽力避开。这些公司专注于为现有用户和业务线使用新技术。他们并不是对技术进步一无所知或漠不关心，相反，从利润最大化的角度来看，他们似乎走的是正确道路——但直到为时已晚，损失惨重。
Clayton M. Christensen
克莱顿·克里斯坦森（Clayton M. Christensen)世界创新大师、哈佛商学院教授,曾两次获得“麦肯锡奖”,荣获2011年《哈佛商业评论》“当代50名最具影响力的商业思想家”，曾在 1990 年代中期提出了颠覆性创新理论。
guru
[ˈɡʊruː]
n. 古鲁(印度教或锡克教的宗教导师或领袖); 专家; 权威; 大师
Gain traction
越来越受欢迎;获得引力
The coronavirus pandemic has helped the idea of a four-day workweek gain traction as the health crisis causes people to spend more time at home.
疫情危机导致人们有更多的时间待在家里，因此每周四天工作制的想法也越来越受欢迎。
a market I was finding hard to gain traction in as a woman.
作为一个女人，我发现很难在这市场得到吸引力。
Incumbent
/ɪnˈkʌmbənt/
n.在职者;现任者
6
Investors like Mr Son, excited about the future of startups that focus on AI, are implicitly presuming that a period of disruptive innovation is under way. But most of the recent excitement about generative-AI platforms has focused on their potential as a new technology to be deployed, not as companies which could open up brand new markets. In the case of other recent technological innovations, incumbents have won the day. Elad Gil, a venture capitalist, has noted that the value of previous advances in machine learning, the broader category of which generative AI is a part, have accrued almost entirely to incumbents. The early internet startups have benefited, as have Microsoft and chip firms like Nvidia and Micron. The earlier stages of machine learning produced no listed firms that might be considered the Amazon or Google of their niche.
像孙正义这样的投资者，对专注于AI的初创公司的未来感到兴奋，他们都暗自认为破坏性创新时代正在来临。但是最近大部分关于生成式AI平台的兴头都集中在其作为一种有待使用的新技术的潜力，而非可以开辟全新市场的企业。就其他技术创新而言，这些现存企业赢得了胜利。风险投资者埃拉德·吉尔(Elad Gil)指出，此前在机器学习方面取得的进步（生成式AI平台只是一部分）的价值几乎全部归功于现有大型科技公司。早期的互联网初创公司收益颇丰，微软和英伟达、美光等芯片公司也从中获益。机器学习发展的早期阶段没有产生能有亚马逊或谷歌这种市场地位的上市公司。
Implicitly
含蓄地;无保留地;暗中地;不明显地;无疑问地
注：这是文章观点的核心支持证据：the value of previous advances in machine learning, the broader category of which generative AI is a part, have accrued almost entirely to incumbents。（机器学习领域革新几乎全部来自现有大型科技公司，而生成式人工智能也属于机器学习技术的一部分。
7
Christensen’s insights make clear that revolutionary innovation does not always end up being revolutionary in business terms. Yet existing tech firms are now spending enormous sums on AI, suggesting they should be well-placed if the tech does turn out to revolutionise business. It is possible an investment in a broad index fund tracking existing listed tech firms will end up outperforming the equivalent investment in private, strictly AI-focused startups.
克里斯坦森的观点说明革命性的创新并不总会导致商业方面的变革。然而，现存的科技公司正在为AI豪掷千金，这表明，如果这项技术真的能够变革商业，他们应该会处于有利地位。在同样的投资规模下，投资跟踪广义指数基金的现有上市科技公司，最后可能会跑赢投资私营的、严格专注于AI的新创公司。
Outperform
胜过、超过
In recent years the Austrian economy has outperformed most other industrial economies...
近几年，奥地利的经济发展超过了其他多数工业国。
8
Theories about why innovation is sometimes disruptive and sometimes not are more often discussed by students of business and management than stockpickers. But the difference between the two possibilities is crucial in assessing whether the next generation of listed tech companies, with market capitalisations in the hundreds of billions of dollars, is to be found among private AI firms. As things stand, it looks more likely that the market value of the technology will end up as a new string to the bow of already giant tech firms.
关于为什么创新有时具有破坏性，而有时没有的原理，商业与管理专业的学生往往比股民探讨得更多。但在评估私人AI公司中是否会出现市值高达数千亿美元的下一代上市科技公司时，这两种可能性之间的差异就变得至关重要。就目前情况而言，这项技术的市场价值最终有可能成为现有大型科技公司新的机会和方向。
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