每天一篇经济学人 | Financial markets 金融市场（202...

A new bear market in American shares

美国股市新一轮熊市

Financial markets

金融市场

AMERICA’s BEAR season, when hikers are advised to stay on their trails and carry pepper spray, runs for two months from September. It has come early for investors. The S&P500 index of leading American stocks has fallen by 18% from its all-time high in January, ten percentage points of which was in the past month alone. The index is flirting with bear-market territory, a 20% decline. The NASDAQ, a tech-heavy benchmark, has plunged well past that level. Since November it has shed 29%.

美国的熊季从9月开始持续两个月，建议远足者留在他们的小径上并携带上胡椒喷雾。对投资者来说，这来得太早了。代表美国主要股票的标准普尔500指数从1月份的历史最高点下跌了18%，其中仅上个月就下跌了10个百分点。该指数目前已接近下跌20%的熊市区间。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数暴跌，其暴跌程度远远超过这一水平。自去年11月以来，该指数已下跌29%。

For 18 months or so, since inflation began to climb, investors have fretted over how much the Federal Reserve would tighten policy, and how painful that would be for asset prices. The latest rout, which followed a meeting of the Fed on May 4th at which America’s central bank raised rates by 0.5 percentage points, offers an answer: very painful.

自通货膨胀开始攀升的18个月左右的时间里，投资者一直在担心会美联储收紧政策到什么程度，以及这将给资产价格带来多大的痛苦。在美联储5月4日的会议上，美国中央银行将利率提高了0.5个百分点，最近的一次溃败紧随其后，这给了我们一个答复：非常痛苦。

The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by another 1.9 percentage points this year, even as it shrinks its balance-sheet fast. And the more entrenched inflation becomes, the more aggressive the Fed will have to be. Worryingly, American households expect inflation to be above 6% a year from now and almost 4% in three years, according to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 9th.

市场预计美联储今年将再加息1.9个百分点，即使它正在快速收缩其资产负债表。通货膨胀越根深蒂固，美联储就必须采取更激进的措施。令人担忧的是，根据纽约联邦储备银行5月9日的一项调查，美国家庭预计未来一年通胀率将超过6%，三年通胀预期接近4%。

Higher real interest rates erode the present value of future cashflows. The sell-off has been vicious for technology stocks whose valuations rest on expectations of much larger earnings far in the future (see Business section). For the same reason, prices of bonds with long maturities have fallen heavily. Many speculative assets without cashflows have done even worse. Bitcoin is trading at about $27,000, half its value in November.

更高的实际利率会减少未来现金流的现值。对科技股来说，这种抛售是恶性的，因为它们的估值依赖于对未来更大收益的预期。出于同样的原因，长期债券的价格大幅下跌。许多没有现金流的投机资产的表现甚至更糟。比特币的交易价格约为2.7万美元，是去年11月的一半。

One question is whether the market slump signals deeper trouble in the economy. America’s unemployment rate is just 3.6% and more than 11m jobs remain unfilled. But the more zealous the Fed has to be, the more likely it is to cause a recession. Meanwhile, war in Ukraine has stoked energy prices. And X’s zero-covid policy is damaging its economy and adding to supply-chain snarl-ups around the world.

【1】stoke 激起；煽起

【2】snarl-up 交通拥堵；混乱

一个问题是，市场暴跌是否预示着经济问题的加深。美国的失业率只有3.6%，超过1100万个工作岗位空缺。但美联储越是积极，就越有可能引发经济衰退。与此同时，乌克兰的战争推高了能源价格。X的“零新冠”政策正在损害其经济，加剧世界各地的供应链拥堵。

The other question is whether financial-market turmoil may eventually amplify economic problems, rather than merely reflect them. Over the past decade debt and equity markets have played a bigger role in finance, in part owing to tighter regulation that has inhibited risky lending and trading by banks. Most household mortgages now originate outside the banking system, and are issued as securities and held by investors. American companies get 57% of their debt funding from investors in bond markets, up from 45% in 2007. Banks play a smaller role as the middlemen in financial markets, their place taken by computers and specialist trading firms.

另一个问题是，金融市场的动荡最终是否会放大经济问题，而不是仅仅反映这些经济问题。过去10年，债券和股票市场在金融领域发挥了更大作用，部分原因是监管收紧抑制了银行的高风险放贷和交易。目前，大多数家庭抵押贷款源于银行体系之外，以证券形式发行，由投资者持有。美国公司57%的债务融资来自债券市场的投资者，这一比例高于2007年的45%。银行在金融市场中扮演的中间人角色越来越小，取而代之的是电脑和专业交易公司。

These structural changes in the way finance works may mean that markets are more prone to bouts of erratic trading and nervous breakdowns. Regulators, as well as plenty of investors, have worried that the new-look Treasury market could seize up in times of stress, causing strains in the real economy. Violent moves in asset markets may have more of an effect not only on people’s retirement accounts and firms’ share prices, but also on their ability to borrow.

【1】erratic 不稳定的；难以预测的

【2】seize up 停止运转

金融运作方式的这些结构性变化可能意味着，市场更容易出现难以预测的交易以及令人局促不安的崩溃。监管机构和大量投资者担心，新形势下的美国国债市场可能会在紧张时期失灵，从而给实体经济带来压力。资产市场的剧烈波动可能不仅会对人们的退休账户和公司股价产生更大的影响，还会对他们的借贷能力产生更大的影响。

As ten-year Treasury yields have climbed from 1.6% in January to 3% now, mortgage rates in America have shot up from 3.0% to 5.3%. Risky firms are beginning to find it hard to issue debt. The first quarter of 2022 was the slowest for high-yield issuance since 2016. When it tried to sell $3bn-worth of bonds in late April, Carvana, a second-hand-car retailer, struggled to attract investors even at double-digit yields. Unfortunately, the hikers are far from being out of the woods just yet. 

随着10年期国债收益率从1月份的1.6%攀升至现在的3%，美国的抵押贷款利率也从3.0%飙升至5.3%。有风险的公司开始很难发行债券。2022年第一季度是2016年以来高收益债券发行最慢的一个季度。4月底，二手车零售商Carvana试图发行价值30亿美元的债券时，即便收益率达到两位数，也难以吸引投资者。不幸的是，这些远足者还远远没有走出森林。