经济学顶刊American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2023年第1期

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2023年第1期

Vol. 15 No. 1 January 2023

 

 

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1.Anchored Inflation Expectations

锚定通货膨胀预期

Carlos Carvalho

Stefano Eusepi

Emanuel Moench

Bruce Preston

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.

我们开发了一个通胀预期的低频波动理论，并使用它来解释美国和其他国家在战后时期的通胀和通胀预期的联合动态。在我们的理论中，长期通胀预期是内生性的。它们是由短期意外通胀驱动的，在某种程度上取决于最近的预测表现和货币政策。这将我们的理论与常见的暴胀低频特性的解释区分开来。该模型仅使用来自专业调查的通胀和短期预测进行估计，准确预测了对长期通胀预期的观察指标，并识别了无锚预期的事件。

 

 

 

2.Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth

企业进入、退出和总量增长

Jose Asturias

Sewon Hur

Timothy J. Kehoe

Kim J. Ruhl

Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. To analyze this relationship, we develop a model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992). When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption into a calibrated model, we find that the entry and exit terms in the FHK decomposition become more important as GDP grows rapidly, just as they do in the data from Chile and Korea.

将Foster、Haltiwanger和Krizan(2001)分解方法应用于智利和韩国的工厂级制造业数据，我们发现，在GDP快速增长期间，工厂的进入和退出在总生产率增长中所占的比例更大。为了分析这一关系，我们在Hopenhayn(1992)的基础上建立了一个企业进入和退出模型。当我们将降低进入成本或降低技术采用壁垒的改革引入校准模型时，我们发现，随着GDP的快速增长，FHK分解中的进入和退出条款变得更加重要，就像智利和韩国的数据一样。

 

 

 

3.Learning about Debt Crises

Radoslaw Paluszynski

The European debt crisis presents a challenge to our understanding of the relationship between government bond yields and economic fundamentals. I argue that information frictions are an important missing element and support that claim with evidence on the evolution of GDP forecast errors after 2008. I build a quantitative model of sovereign default where output features rare disasters and agents learn about their realizations. Debt crises coincide with economic depressions and develop gradually while markets update their expectations about future income. Calibrated to the Portuguese economy, the model replicates the comovement of bond spreads and output before and after 2008.

欧洲债务危机对我们理解政府债券收益率与经济基本面之间的关系提出了挑战。我认为，信息摩擦是一个重要的缺失因素，并通过2008年之后GDP预测误差的演变提供证据来支持这一说法。我建立了一个主权违约的定量模型，其中输出具有罕见灾难的特征，代理人了解它们的实现情况。债务危机与经济萧条同时发生，并在市场更新其对未来收入预期的同时逐渐发展。该模型根据葡萄牙经济进行校准，复制了2008年前后债券利差和产出的联动关系。

 

 

 

4.Uncovering the Effects of the Zero Lower Bound with an Endogenous Financial Wedge

Dan Cao

Wenlan Luo

Guangyu Nie

We study the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the severity of financial crises using an incomplete markets New Keynesian model with two occasionally binding constraints: a ZLB on the nominal interest rate and a borrowing constraint tied to an asset price. The model's financial wedge corresponds to an endogenous multiplier on the borrowing constraint. Binding ZLB exacerbates financial crises through its interaction with the asset fire sale vicious cycle, driving up the financial wedge. Our results offer a novel reinterpretation of the negligible effect of the ZLB in representative agent New Keynesian models with exogenous wedges.

我们使用一个不完全市场新凯恩斯主义模型研究了零利率下限(ZLB)对金融危机严重性的影响，该模型有两个偶尔的约束:名义利率的ZLB和与资产价格挂钩的借款约束。模型中的金融楔子对应于借款约束的内生乘数。绑定ZLB通过与资产贱卖恶性循环的互动加剧了金融危机，推高了金融楔子。我们的结果提供了一个新的解释，在具有外生楔形的代表性代理人新凯恩斯模型中，ZLB的微不足道的影响。

 

 

 

5.Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information

不完全信息下DSGE模型的稳健预测

Ryan Chahrour

Robert Ulbricht

We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete information that are robust across information structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information economy with time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions that ensure the wedges are rationalizable by some information structure. Using our approach, we quantify the potential importance of information as a source of business cycle fluctuations in an otherwise frictionless model. Our approach uncovers a central role for firm-specific demand shocks in supporting aggregate confidence fluctuations. Only if firms face unobserved local demand shocks can confidence fluctuations account for a significant portion of the US business cycle.

我们为不完全信息的DSGE模型提供了跨信息结构的稳健预测。我们的方法将一个不完全信息模型映射到一个具有时变期望楔形的完全信息经济，并提供了条件，以确保楔形在某些信息结构下是合理的。使用我们的方法，我们在一个无摩擦的模型中量化信息作为商业周期波动来源的潜在重要性。我们的方法揭示了企业特定需求冲击在支持总体信心波动方面的核心作用。只有当企业面临不可观察的本地需求冲击时，信心波动才能占美国商业周期的很大一部分。

 

 

 

6.The Government Spending Multiplier in a Multisector Economy

政府多部门经济中的支出乘数

Hafedh Bouakez

Omar Rachedi

Emiliano Santoro

We study the effects of aggregate government spending shocks in a production network economy where sectors differ in their price rigidity, factor intensities, use of intermediate inputs, and contribution to final demand. The model implies an aggregate value-added multiplier that is 75 percent (and $0.32) larger than that obtained in the average one-sector economy. This amplification is mainly driven by input-output linkages and—to a lesser extent—sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity. Aggregate government spending shocks also lead to heterogeneous responses of sectoral value added, which are larger among upstream industries. We present novel empirical evidence supporting this prediction.

我们研究了在生产网络经济中，政府总支出冲击的影响，在这种经济中，各部门的价格刚性、要素强度、中间投入的使用以及对最终需求的贡献各不相同。该模型表明，总增值乘数比平均单一部门经济的乘数大75%(0.32美元)。这种放大主要是由投入产出联系以及价格刚性中的部门异质性(在较小程度上)驱动的。政府总支出冲击也导致行业增加值的异质性反应，上游行业增加值反应更大。我们提出了新的经验证据来支持这一预测。

 

 

 

7.Skilled Labor Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences

熟练劳动生产率与跨国收入差异

Lutz Hendricks and Todd Schoellman

This paper revisits the question of how allowing for imperfect substitution among workers with different skill levels affects the results of development accounting. We consider a range of models that nest the approaches in the literature and calibrate them to a common set of moments, including particularly evidence on the wage gains of migrants. We obtain two main results. First, human capital accounts for between one-half and three-fourths of cross-country income gaps. Second, human capital accounts for only modest variation in the relative productivity of skilled versus unskilled labor.

本文回顾了允许不同技能水平的工人之间的不完全替代如何影响发展会计结果的问题。我们考虑了一系列模型，这些模型嵌入了文献中的方法，并将它们校准到一组常见的时刻，特别是移民工资增长的证据。我们得到了两个主要结果。首先，人力资本在跨国收入差距中所占比例在1 / 2到3 / 4之间。第二，人力资本对高技能劳动力和非高技能劳动力的相对生产率的影响很小。

 

 

 

8.Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries

女性、财富效应和缓慢的复苏

Masao Fukui, Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson

Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slow-down comes entirely from female employment, as women's employment rates converged toward men's during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? We estimate the extent to which women "crowd out" men in the labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through the lens of a general equilibrium model with home production, we show this statistic implies that 60–75 percent of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female convergence.

近几十年来，商业周期复苏放缓。这种放缓完全来自女性就业，因为在过去半个世纪里，女性就业率向男性靠拢。但是，女性就业率增长的放缓会转化为整体就业率的放缓吗?我们估计了美国各州劳动力市场上女性“挤出”男性的程度，发现这种程度很小。通过家庭生产的一般均衡模型，我们表明，这一统计数据表明，在最近的商业周期复苏中，60% - 75%的放缓可以由女性趋同来解释。

 

 

 

9.Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications

消费异质性:微观驱动因素与宏观影响

Edmund Crawley and Andreas Kuchler

We document heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across household characteristics relevant to understanding heterogeneous agent models and monetary policy transmission. We find a strong negative relationship between household liquid wealth and MPC. We show that household liquid wealth predicts MPC closely for every other household characteristic we look at. We use a new empirical method that overcomes sources of bias found in the existing literature, along with administrative data from Denmark that allow us to identify heterogeneous behavior. We use our results to analyze monetary policy transmission mechanisms in both Denmark and the United States.

我们记录了不同家庭特征的边际消费倾向(MPC)的异质性，这与理解异质性代理模型和货币政策传导有关。我们发现，家庭流动财富与货币政策偏好之间存在显著的负向关系。我们表明，对于我们所观察的其他每个家庭特征，家庭流动性财富都能很好地预测MPC。我们使用了一种新的经验方法，克服了现有文献中发现的偏见来源，并结合丹麦的行政数据，使我们能够识别异质行为。我们利用研究结果分析了丹麦和美国的货币政策传导机制。

 

 

 

10.Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce

评估电子商务的收益

Paul Dolfen, Liran Einav, Peter J. Klenow, Benjamin Klopack, Jonathan D. Levin, Larry Levin and Wayne Best

E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spending in the United States. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate e-commerce reached 8 percent of consumption by 2017, yielding the equivalent of a 1 percent boost to their consumption, or over $1,000 per household per year. While some of the gains arose from avoiding travel costs to local merchants, most of the gains stemmed from substituting to merchants available online but not locally. Higher income consumers gained more, as did consumers in more densely populated counties.

电子商务在美国消费者支出中的份额迅速增长。我们使用Visa, Inc.在2007年至2017年期间的信用卡和借记卡交易层面的数据来量化由此产生的消费者剩余。我们估计，到2017年，电子商务在消费中的占比达到8%，这相当于为他们的消费带来了1%的提振，即每个家庭每年超过1000美元。虽然其中一些收益来自避免当地商家的旅行成本，但大多数收益来自替代网上可获得的商家，而不是当地可获得的商家。收入较高的消费者获得更多，人口更密集的县的消费者也是如此。

 

 

 

11.Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices, and Net Exports in a Currency Union

货币联盟中的财政政策、相对价格和净出口

Luisa Lambertini and Christian Proebsting

The hoped-for silver lining of euro-area austerity programs was to raise external competitiveness and improve current accounts. Using product- and industry-level data for 12 countries over the period 1999–2018, we show that reductions in government spending reduce prices and wages but only for products with low import content and industries with low export shares. This leads to asymmetric expenditure switching, with net exports improving through lower imports rather than higher exports. The standard small-open-economy model fails to rationalize these findings, but home bias in government spending and frictions preventing factor prices from equalizing across sectors considerably improve the fit of the model.

欧元区紧缩计划的一线希望是提高外部竞争力和改善经常账户。利用12个国家1999—2018年的产品和行业层面数据，我们发现，政府支出的减少会降低价格和工资，但只适用于进口含量低的产品和出口份额低的行业。这导致了不对称的支出转换，净出口通过进口减少而不是出口增加而改善。标准的小型开放经济模型未能对这些发现进行合理化解释，但政府支出的本土偏见和阻碍要素价格跨部门均衡的摩擦大大改善了模型的拟合度。

 

 

 

12.House Prices and Consumption: A New Instrumental Variables Approach

房价与消费:一种新的工具变量方法

James Graham and Christos A. Makridis

We introduce a novel Bartik-like instrument for house prices consisting of the local composition of housing characteristics interacted with aggregate changes in the marginal prices of these characteristics. Using household-level panel data, we estimate elasticities of nondurable consumption expenditures with respect to house prices of around 0.1. These consumption effects are concentrated among the young and those most likely to be facing tight borrowing constraints. A decomposition shows that identifying variation in the instrument is associated with times and locations where house prices have varied the most: during the housing bust of the mid-2000s and in the western United States.

我们引入了一种新的类似bartik的房价工具变量，该工具变量由住房特征的局部构成与这些特征的边际价格的总变化相互作用组成。利用家庭层面的面板数据，我们估计非耐用消费支出相对于房价的弹性约为0.1。这些消费效应主要集中在年轻人和那些最有可能面临严格借贷限制的人身上。一项分解表明，该工具变量的识别变化与房价变化最大的时间和地点有关:在2000年代中期的房地产泡沫破裂期间和美国西部。

 

 

 

13.A Risky Venture: Income Dynamics among Pass-Through Business Owners

风险投资:传递型企业主的收入动态

Jason DeBacker, Vasia Panousi and Shanthi Ramnath

We employ a large panel of US income tax returns for the period 1987–2018 to extensively characterize and quantify business income risk. Our findings show business income to be much riskier than labor income. Business income is less persistent and is characterized by higher tail risk. Furthermore, when compared to labor income, heterogeneity across households is less important in explaining the cross-sectional variation in business income, and within-household income variation is more important. Our results underscore the income risks business owners face and provide stylized facts and parameter estimates useful for quantitative macroeconomic models and policy analysis.

 

 

 

14.Childcare Subsidies and Child Skill Accumulation in One- and Two-Parent Families

单亲、双亲家庭托儿补贴与儿童技能积累

Emily G. Moschini

I examine the role of family structure and childcare subsidies in child skill accumulation. I establish empirically that skill accumulation is more responsive to childcare price for one-parent families than for two-parent families. I analyze the effects of childcare subsidies in a model featuring endogenous family formation, parental altruism, and a baseline subsidy resembling that of the United States. I find that eliminating this subsidy generates welfare losses of 1.63 percent of lifetime consumption, that equilibrium adjustments act to mitigate these losses, and that increasing uptake among one-parent families yields the highest welfare gains per additional recipient.

本文考察了家庭结构和儿童保育补贴在儿童技能积累中的作用。本文通过实证研究发现，与双亲家庭相比，单亲家庭的技能积累对儿童保育价格的影响更大。本文在一个以内生家庭形成、父母利他主义和类似于美国的基线补贴为特征的模型中分析了儿童保育补贴的效果。我发现，取消这种补贴会导致福利损失占终身消费的1.63%，而平衡调整法案可以缓解这些损失，增加单亲家庭的福利吸收，每增加一个受助者，福利收益最高。

 

 

 

15.Firm Wages in a Frictional Labor Market

摩擦性劳动力市场中的企业工资

Leena Rudanko

This paper studies wage setting in a directed search model of multiworker firms facing within-firm equity constraints on wages. The constraints reduce wages, as firms exploit their monopsony power over their existing workers, rendering wages less responsive to productivity in doing so. They also give rise to a time inconsistency in the dynamic firm problem, as firms face a less elastic labor supply in the short run than in the long run, making commitment to future wages valuable. Constrained firms find it profitable to fix wages, and doing so is good for worker welfare and resource allocation in equilibrium.

本文研究了一个多工人企业的定向搜索模型下的工资设定问题。这些限制降低了工资，因为企业利用其对现有工人的垄断权力，使工资对生产率的反应更弱。它们还导致了动态企业问题的时间不一致性，因为企业面临的短期劳动力供应弹性低于长期，这使得对未来工资的承诺变得有价值。受限制的企业发现，固定工资是有利可图的，这样做有利于工人福利和均衡的资源分配。