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【龙腾网】五代机会让四代机过时吗?

2020-03-02 17:33 作者:龙腾洞观  | 我要投稿

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原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:cnbsmt 转载请注明出处



With the F-35 coming into service in many countries, will the US and its allies around the world begin to retire planes like the F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, and F-15? How would this affect a country''s ability to project power and engage in military operations overseas? How would it affect the US economy in terms of the arms industry? Would it weaken Europe''s defense capability if the F-35 replaces the Eurofighter Typhoon and increases America''s influence among allies in Europe? Is there any point of a military maintaining 4th gen fighter jets (F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, or F-15)?

随着F-35在许多国家服役,美国和其盟友会开始让其他飞机退役吗,比如F-16、F-18、台风战斗机和F-15等?这对一个国家在海外投射力量、开展军事行动的能力有何影响?在军工业方面,对美国经济有何影响?如果F-35取代 台风战斗机,让美国在欧洲的影响力增加,会削弱欧洲的防御能力吗?军队继续维持四代机还有意义吗?

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原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:cnbsmt 转载请注明出处

Maitai_Haier
Will 5th gen fighter jets make 4th gen fighter jets obsolete?
Eventually yes, but probably not in the near future. Even today 3rd gen fighters are still in use in air forces around the world.
With the F-35 coming into service in many countries, will the US and its allies around the world begin to retire planes like the F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, and F-15? How would this affect a country''s ability to project power and engage in military operations overseas?
Initially, 5th gen fighters will serve alongside 4th gen fighters, likely for some decades. 4th gen fighters will be completely deployable overseas against second-tier opponents, and this is where the bulk of military deployments happen. In a peer-to-peer war 4th gen fighters would still be usable in secondary fronts or as a supplement to 5th gen fighters, albeit they will likely take higher losses.
How would it affect the US economy in terms of the arms industry? Would it weaken Europe''s defense capability if the F-35 replaces the Eurofighter Typhoon and increases America''s influence among allies in Europe?
The US economy is not tied to the arms industry. Total US arms sales in 2018 amounted to $246 B. That amounts to slightly over 1% of total US GDP. The F-35 is only part of total US sales. An increase in market share wouldn''t hurt, but it isn''t going to have a noticeable positive effect. The F-16 resale market will grow, and demand for parts and maintenance will continue.
It will increase Europe''s defense capability to have a 5th gen fighter while Russia doesn''t and China is struggling to get theirs into serial production. The F-35C is going to be very useful for the European STOBAR carriers. Eurofighter will still get orders for domestic political and economic reasons, and will not be replaced by the F-35.
Is there any point of a military maintaining 4th gen fighter jets (F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, or F-15)?
Yes. A 4th gen fighter is better than no fighter at all.

“五代机会让四代机过时吗?”
四代机总会过时的,但近期还不会。即使在如今,三代机都还在世界各国的空军中用着呢。
“随着F-35在许多国家服役……”
一开始,五代机会和四代机并存,这段时间可能会有几十年。四代机会全部部署在海外,用来对付次级对手,如今大多数的部署就是这样的。在同等级的战争中,四代机在二线还是有用的,或者作为五代机的补充,虽然四代机的损失会比较高。

“对……有何影响?”
美国经济与军工业关系不大。2018年美国军售总额是2460亿美元,只是比美国总GDP的1%略高。这其中,F-35只是总军售的一部分而已。F-35增加不会伤害美国经济的,但也不会有明显的积极影响。F-16的二手销售会增加,对零部件和维修的需求也会继续增长。

有了五代机,欧洲的防御能力会提高,因为俄罗斯还没有五代机,而中国正艰难的想要量产五代机。F-35C对欧洲的航母非常有用。出于国内政治和经济原因,台风战斗机还是会获得订单的,不会被F-35取代。
“军队继续维持四代机还有意义吗?”
有意义。因为有四代机总好过根本没有战斗机。



Maitai_Haier
I don’t like to talk about military capability on the internet because I feel the discussion verges on pointless: those that know don’t talk, those that talk don’t know. But based on published reports, yes, the F-35 is quite impressive.
The F-35B has turned out to have been quite strategically valuable as well despite coming under fire throughout the program by allowing mid-power navys to field light carriers with 5th gen fighters. The JSF concept has paid off strategically in the sense of relatively low unit costs, widespread use, and empowering US allies and partners. They will holistically make these allies entire militaries more effective, from 4th gen airplanes to navies to land forces able to operate with air supremacy.
Based on the lifecycle of older planes, there will be a blossoming of cheap 4th gen fighter parts, but the manpower needed to maintain the older fighters will increase. They’ll especially have increased value in countries with low labor cost especially, until eventually they grow too old and costly to maintain likely around mid-century.

我不喜欢在网上谈军事能力,因为我觉得这种讨论没什么意义:懂的不说,说的不懂。但根据公开信息来看,F-35相当令人印象深刻。
F-35B在战略上是很有价值的,虽然整个项目一直受到批评,因为它能让中等国家的海军航母有能力携带五代机。JSF的概念在战略上取得了回报,因为它的单位成本相对较低、用的国家多、能增强美国盟友和合作伙伴的实力。五代机能让盟友的军队更有效,从四代机到海军再到陆军,都能在空中优势下作战。

关于旧飞机的寿命,大量廉价的四代机部件将会出现,但是维护旧战斗机所需的人力也会增加。不过在劳动力成本较低的国家,它们的价值会更高,直到它们变得太老,维护成本高到维持不下去,这可能要到本世纪中期了。

sanderudam
I''m nowhere near being an expert in this topic, but to me it seems that 5th generation fighters aren''t as much a counter for 4th generation fighters, but rather a counter against advancing AA-systems (though fighters are still a part of AA-systems in a wider sense).
Anyhow, I don''t see 4th generation fighters becoming obsolete or obsolescent anytime soon. It''s not clear yet whether 5th generation fighters offer a comparable "bang for buck". There are different roles a fighter can fill, and an older, but more numerous fighter can still do most of them.

我不是这方面的专家,但在我看来,五代机不是用来对付四代机的,而是用来对付先进的防空系统(尽管从广义来看,战斗机也是防空系统的一部分)。
我不认为四代机很快就会过时。目前还不知道五代机能否达到四代机的性价比。战斗机有不同的用途,而较老的、数量众多的战斗机还是可以满足很多用途的。

yx_orvar
They are probably the most efficient counter there is today, most recent exercises show that it''s a turkeyshoot for f-35s and f-22s as long as the 5th gen isn''t artificially limited, mostly due to the superiour sensor-suites.

五代机可能是四代机最可怕的杀手,最近的演习表明,只要不被人为的限制,由于强大的探测器套件,F-35和F-22对四代机的战果就是一边倒。



RaufRumi
Good point, but what about the maintenance and repairs for the next 30 years? Aircrafts need frequent maintenance and the cost adds up. Its more than the unit cost, its also maintenance and flight time costs. It is logistically easier to buy f16s and use them than f35s.

说得不错,但未来30年的维护和修理费如何呢?飞机需要经常维修,再加上成本。它不仅是单价,还包括维护和飞行时间成本。想就知道了,购买和使用F-16比F-35更便宜。

Dragon029
Maintenance cost is notably higher than an F-16 today (an F-35A''s CPFH is similar to that of an F-15C/E at the moment), but they are working on bringing it down, with the goal of it eventually being about on par with the F-16 today. That may seem unrealistic with it being a stealth aircraft, but you also have to remember that many other aspects of the jet are more reliable and easier to maintain than the F-16''s equivalents. The F-35 control surfaces use self-contained hydraulic actuators that are electrically powered and are designed to be sealed for the life of the jet for example, whereas an F-16 relies on tens (if not hundreds) of metres of hydraulic tubing, valves and connectors to power its control surface actuators.

如今的维护成本明显高于F-16(F-35A的每小时飞行成本与的F-15C/E差不多),他们正在努力降低成本,最终目标是达到现在F-16差不多的程度。这对于隐形飞机来说似乎不太现实,但你要知道,F-35在许多方面比F-16更可靠、更容易维护。例如,F-35的控制器用的是独立的液压执行机构,是电力驱动的,而且是密封的。而F-16依靠几十米(可能有几百米)长的液压管、阀门和连接器来驱动控制器机构。

dravik
The US doesn''t just like the A10 because it''s cheaper. It has significant advantages for CAS missions.

在美国不会的,他们就喜欢A10,因为它更便宜,在空中支援中非常有优势。

r3dl3g
It''s also been responsible for more friendly-fire incidents than any other aircraft involved in the actions in Kuwait, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

在科威特、伊拉克和阿富汗的战斗中,相比其他飞机,A-10也对友军造成了更多的误伤。

Tidorith
Does it appear to have more comparitively, after factoring in how often used it is for CAS where I would assume you have the highest risk of friendly fire incidents?

它对友军造成更多的误伤,是因为它在空中支援中使用的频率非常高,这样想是否更有可比性了呢?



randocadet
6th gen will almost definitely be a mix between manned and unmanned. Think F-35 with five or six drones integrated with it carrying more armament and adding clutter for other fighters/SAMs using the electronic systems on the 35. The F35 will almost definitely be an early platform for that transition.
Furthermore, if you want to stay competitive in the military game throughout time you can’t skip generations. Or you expose your nation to years without a determined end point of defense inferiority.

六代机肯定会是有人和无人的混合。想想看,当F-35指挥五到六架无人机,携带更多的武器,再加上其他用了F-35电子系统的战斗机。F-35肯定会成为这种转变的早期平台。
另外,如果你想在军事游戏中始终保持竞争力,你就不能跳代。否则你的国家有几年就会处于防御劣势中。

SteveDaPirate
Manned/Unmanned teaming is where things are actually headed. Think an F-35 with drone wingmen.
It allows you to leverage the strengths of both types of platforms while minimising their weaknesses. Autonomous platforms can be built to be smaller, and more agile without a human pilot, and they can be expendable in a pinch. While having a human on scene directing the action can prevent jamming and latency issues via line of sight communications, as well as provide a superior understanding of what''s occurring.
Computers are great at collecting information, calculating and processing it, but even if they''ve been programmed with rules of behavior, they don''t understand the context of a strategic situation or how that situation can evolve in real time. You need a man in the loop to determine what information is actually useful and how to utilize it to full effect.

有人+无人集群才是真正的发展方向。想想F-35配上无人僚机。
这能发挥两种平台的优势,又能将各自的弱点最小化。无人平台能造得更小更灵活,而且在紧要关头还可以牺牲掉。当有人在现场指挥行动时,可以防止干扰和延迟问题,而且人的理解能力更强。

计算机在收集、计算和处理信息方面很强大,但即使有行为规则编程,它们也不了解战略局势的背景,也不知道局势会如何发展。需要专业人员来决定哪些信息是真正有用的,以及如何充分利用它。


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