The World in 2021

Ten trends to watch in the coming year

A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World in 2021”

DO YOU FEEL lucky? The number 21 is connected with luck, risk, taking chances and rolling the dice. It’s the number of spots on a standard die, and the number of shillings in a guinea, the currency of wagers and horse-racing. It’s the minimum age at which you can enter a casino in America, and the name of a family of card games, including blackjack, that are popular with gamblers.

roll the dice：掷骰子；           standard die：标准模

wager /ˈweɪdʒə(r)/  1.~ (sth) (on sth)~ sth/sb that... to bet money 打赌；押（赌注）•to wager ￡50 on a horse 在一匹马上押50英镑的赌注。 2.[ V (that) ] 打赌；打包票 •I'll wager that she knows more about it than she's saying. 我敢打赌，她知道的比她说的要多。3.名词，打赌

All of which seems strangely appropriate for a year of unusual uncertainty. The great prize on offer is the chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. But in the meantime risks abound, to health, economic vitality and social stability. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead.

abound  v. /əˈbaʊnd/ 大量存在；有许多 • Stories about his travels abound. 有关他游历的故事多得很。

AˈBOUND WITH/IN STH：有大量；富于 •The lakes abound with fish. 这些湖泊盛产鱼。

vitality  n. /vaɪˈtæləti/生命力；活力；热情 • She is bursting with vitality and new ideas. 她朝气蓬勃，满脑子新主意。

1. Fights over vaccines.

As the first vaccines become available in quantity, the focus will shift from the heroic effort of developing them to the equally daunting task of distributing them. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany fights within and between countries over who should get them and when. A wild card: how many people will refuse a vaccine when offered?

daunting /ˈdɔːntɪŋ/ adj. 使人畏缩的；使人气馁的；令人怯步的

wild card1.(纸牌游戏) （由持牌人自由决定牌值的）百搭派，变牌；2.(体) “百搭”式参赛，“百搭”式参赛选手，“外卡”参赛，“外卡”选手（指没有正常参赛资格而参赛）；3.(计)  通配符；4.难以预测的人（或事物）；未知因素；未知数

2. A mixed economic recovery.

As economies bounce back from the pandemic the recovery will be patchy, as local outbreaks and clampdowns come and go and governments pivot from keeping companies on life-support to helping workers who have lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen.

Patchy /ˈpætʃi/ adj. 零散的；分布不匀的；不完整的；参差不齐的；局部地区的；不很可靠的，不很令人满意的

Clampdown  n./ˈklæmpdaʊn/ 严禁，制止，取缔（非法活动）• a clampdown on drinking and driving 严禁酒后驾车

pivot /ˈpɪvət/  1.支点；枢轴；中心点。2.最重要的人（或事物）；中心；核心 •West Africa was the pivot of the cocoa trade. 西非是可可豆贸易的中心。3.（使）在枢轴上旋转（或转动）•She pivoted around and walked out. 她一转身走了出去。4.pivot on/around sth (论点、理论等) 围绕（主旨）；以…为核心 

3. Patching up the new world disorder.

How much will Joe Biden, newly installed in the White House, be able to patch up a crumbling rules-based international order? The Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal are obvious places to start. But the crumbling predates Donald Trump, and will outlast his presidency.

Crumbling  v. 破碎；崩溃（crumble的ing形式）；adj. 破碎的；n. 破碎；皱纹；岩块剥落

4. More US-China tensions.

Don’t expect Mr Biden to call off the trade war with China. Instead, he will want to mend relationships with allies to wage it more effectively. Many countries from Africa to South-East Asia are doing their best to avoiding picking sides as the tension rises.

Wage：作动词，~ sth (against/on sb/sth) 开始，发动，进行，继续（战争、战斗等）

5. Companies on the front line. 

Another front for the US-China conflict is companies, and not just the obvious examples of Huawei and TikTok, as business becomes even more of a geopolitical battlefield. As well as pressure from above, bosses also face pressure from below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice, where politicians have done too little.

译文

DO YOU FEEL lucky? The number 21 is connected with luck, risk, taking chances and rolling the dice. It’s the number of spots on a standard die, and the number of shillings in a guinea, the currency of wagers and horse-racing. It’s the minimum age at which you can enter a casino in America, and the name of a family of card games, including blackjack, that are popular with gamblers.

感到幸运吗？数字21与幸运、风险、机遇和掷骰子联系在一起。一个标准骰子共有21点，下注和赛马采用的货币guinea等同21先令。21也是美国赌场最低准入年龄和在赌客中流行的家庭卡牌游戏的名字，它里面有“黑杰克”。

All of which seems strangely appropriate for a year of unusual uncertainty. The great prize on offer is the chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. But in the meantime risks abound, to health, economic vitality and social stability. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead.

所有这些都与充满不寻常不确定性的2021年完美契合。2021年最大的奖赏是将新冠疫情控制住。但与此同时，威胁健康、经济活力和社会稳定的风险大量存在。随着2021的临近，这里有10条新一年趋势值得观望。

1. Fights over vaccines.

As the first vaccines become available in quantity, the focus will shift from the heroic effort of developing them to the equally daunting task of distributing them. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany fights within and between countries over who should get them and when. A wild card: how many people will refuse a vaccine when offered?

趋势一：疫苗争夺战。

随着第一批疫苗数量上得到保障，关注的焦点将从开发疫苗时的英勇奉献转到艰巨的分配任务。疫苗外交将伴随着围绕国内外疫苗谁先使用及什么时间使用问题带来内部和国际争端。一个未知数：有多少人将在供应疫苗的时候拒绝使用？

2. A mixed economic recovery.

As economies bounce back from the pandemic the recovery will be patchy, as local outbreaks and clampdowns come and go and governments pivot from keeping companies on life-support to helping workers who have lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen.

趋势二： 混杂的经济复苏。

随着经济从疫情中恢复，其复苏也是参差不齐，因为疫情的局部爆发和控制此起彼伏。政府的工作重点从救助企业转至疫情中失业的工人阶级。大公司与小企业之间的差距进一步扩大。

3. Patching up the new world disorder.

How much will Joe Biden, newly installed in the White House, be able to patch up a crumbling rules-based international order? The Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal are obvious places to start. But the crumbling predates Donald Trump, and will outlast his presidency.

趋势三：平息世界混乱。

新入住白宫的拜登将何种程度修补已经破碎的国际秩序？巴黎气候协定和伊朗核问题很明显是拜登政府准备启动的。但这种秩序崩溃早在川普上位之前就已经存在，还将在拜登时期存续。

4 More US-China tensions.

Don’t expect Mr Biden to call off the trade war with China. Instead, he will want to mend relationships with allies to wage it more effectively. Many countries from Africa to South-East Asia are doing their best to avoiding picking sides as the tension rises.

趋势四： 更多中美冲突。

不要期望拜登会叫停中美之间的贸易战。取而代之，他会更加想要修补与盟友之间的关系让贸易战打得更有效。非洲、东南亚很多国家都在尽最大可能在中美冲突中保持中立。

5 Companies on the front line. Another front for the US-China conflict is companies, and not just the obvious examples of Huawei and TikTok, as business becomes even more of a geopolitical battlefield. As well as pressure from above, bosses also face pressure from below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice, where politicians have done too little.

趋势五：公司成为中美冲突的排头兵。

中美冲突的另一个前线是企业，由于商业越来越像地缘政治的战场，不会只有华为和抖音国际这样明显的例子。企业老板不仅面临来自上层的压力，还有下层的压力。在气候变化和社会正义这些政治人物不怎么关心的领域，企业雇员和客户选择为其站台。

经济学人2020年12月刊