The Economic journal 2023年第5期

The Economic journal 2023年第5期

Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023

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Political Risk, Populism and the Economy

政治风险、民粹主义和经济

Pierluigi Balduzziand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1677–1704, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead017

We study the financial and real effects of political risk shocks for Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece between 2008 and 2019. We build an instrument for these shocks using the changes of the sovereign yield spread around political and policy dates, and estimate their effects in the context of local projection. We show that adverse political risk shocks have negative effects on domestic financial markets and in some countries generate spillovers on the spreads of other eurozone economies. Moreover, in Italy populism-related political risk shocks have a larger effect on financial markets and they harm the real economy.

Mineral Resources and the Salience of Ethnic Identities

矿产资源与民族认同的凸显

Nicolas Bermanand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1705–1737, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead018

This paper shows how ethnic identities may become more salient due to natural resources extraction. We combine individual data on the strength of ethnic—relative to national—identities with geo-localised information on the contours of ethnic homelands, and on the timing and location of mineral resources exploitation in 25 African countries, from 2005 to 2015. Our strategy takes advantage of several dimensions of exposure to resources exploitation: time, spatial proximity and ethnic proximity. We find that the strength of an ethnic group identity increases when mineral resource exploitation in that group’s historical homeland intensifies. We argue that this result is at least partly rooted in feelings of relative deprivation associated with the exploitation of the resources. We show that such exploitation has limited positive economic spillovers, especially for members of the indigenous ethnic group; and that the link between mineral resources and the salience of ethnic identities is reinforced among members of powerless ethnic groups and groups with strong baseline identity feelings or living in poorer areas, or areas with a history of conflict. Put together, these findings suggest a new dimension of the natural resource curse: the fragmentation of identities, between ethnic groups and nations.

The Effects of Fiscal Decentralisation on Publicly Provided Services and Labour Markets

财政分权对公共提供的服务和劳动力市场的影响

Nicola Bianchiand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1738–1772, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead022

Abstract

This paper studies how fiscal decentralisation affects labour supply. It explores a reform that increased the fiscal autonomy of Italian municipalities by replacing government transfers with revenues from a local property tax. Our identification leverages cross-municipal variation in the degree of decentralisation that stems from differences in the average age of buildings caused by World War II bombings. Decentralisation expanded municipal services, such as nursery schools, especially in areas with greater political competition. The paper then investigates how the reform affected labour markets. Decentralisation increased female labour supply—probably through expanded availability of nursery schools—thereby reducing the gender gap in employment.

How Effective are Female Role Models in Steering Girls Towards STEM? Evidence from French High Schools

女性榜样在引导女孩走向STEM方面的效果如何?来自法国高中的证据

Thomas Bredaand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1773–1809, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead019

Abstract

We show in a large-scale field experiment that a brief exposure to female role models working in scientific fields affects high school students’ perceptions and choices of undergraduate major. The classroom interventions reduced the prevalence of stereotypical views on jobs in science and gender differences in abilities. They also made high-achieving girls in grade12 more likely to enrol in selective and male-dominated science, technology, engineering and mathematics programs in college. Comparing treatment effects across the 56 role model participants, we find that the most effective interventions are those that improved students’ perceptions of science, technology, engineering and mathematics careers without overemphasising women’s under-representation in science.

Income-Based Affirmative Action in College Admissions

大学招生中基于收入的平权行动

Luiz Brotherhoodand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1810–1845, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead016

Abstract

We study whether college admissions should implement quotas for lower-income applicants. We develop an overlapping-generation model and calibrate it to data from Brazil, where such a policy is widely implemented. In our model, parents choose how much to invest in their child’s education, thereby increasing both human capital and likelihood of college admission. We find that, in the long run, the optimal income-based affirmative action increases welfare and aggregate output. It improves the pool of admitted students, but distorts pre-college educational investments. The welfare-maximising policy benefits lower- to middle-income applicants with income-based quotas, while higher-income applicants face fiercer competition in college admissions. The optimal policy reduces intergenerational persistence of earnings by 5.7% and makes nearly 80% of households better off.

Creativity and Corporate Culture

创意与企业文化

Gary Charnessand Daniela Grieco

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1846–1870, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead012

Abstract

We investigate which form of corporate culture is most effective in enhancing individual performance in creative tasks conducted in group settings. We combine a series of experiments with a questionnaire on corporate values to test whether performance ranking and incentives succeed in instantiating a creative corporate culture. Being ranked against competitors and setting incentives at the group level serves as a social cue that appears to induce in members a significantly stronger pro-social attitude. When this attitude is shared by group members, a social norm of high effort emerges, and creative performance is significantly higher.

我们调查了哪种形式的企业文化最有效地提高个人表现在创造性任务中进行的团体设置。本文将一系列实验与企业价值观问卷相结合，以检验绩效排名和激励措施是否能够成功地实例化创造性企业文化。与竞争对手进行排名和在群体层面设置激励措施，作为一种社会线索，似乎会诱导成员产生更强烈的亲社会态度。当这种态度被群体成员共享时，一种高努力的社会规范就会出现，创造性绩效显著更高。

Production Networks And International Fiscal Spillovers

生产网络和国际财政溢出效应

Michael B Devereuxand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1871–1900, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead014

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of fiscal spending shocks in a dynamic, multi-country model with international production networks. The response of real gross domestic product to a fiscal spending shock can be decomposed into a direct effect, income effect and price effect. The direct effect depends only on input-output linkages, while the price effect is zero in the aggregate. We apply this decomposition to the Eurozone, and find that fiscal spillovers from Germany and the core Eurozone countries can be large, and within the range of empirical estimates. Without international production networks, spillovers would be significantly smaller. In an empirical application, using the decomposition, we find results strongly consistent with the model.

本文在一个具有国际生产网络的动态多国模型中，分析了财政支出冲击的影响。实际国内生产总值(gdp)对财政支出冲击的反应可以分解为直接效应、收入效应和价格效应。直接效应仅依赖于投入产出联系，而价格效应在总体上为零。我们将这种分解应用于欧元区，发现德国和欧元区核心国家的财政溢出可能很大，而且在经验估计的范围内。如果没有国际生产网络，溢出效应会小得多。在一个经验应用中，使用分解，我们发现结果与模型强烈一致。

Neighbourhood Gangs, Crime Spillovers and Teenage Motherhood

邻里帮派，犯罪溢出和青少年母亲

Christian Dustmannand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1901–1936, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead009

Abstract

Using an identification strategy based on random assignment of refugees to different municipalities in Denmark between 1986 and 1998, we find strong evidence that gang crime rates in the neighbourhood at assignment increase the probability of boys to commit crimes before the age of 19, and that gang crime (but not other crime) increases the likelihood of teenage motherhood for girls. Higher levels of gang crime also have detrimental and long-lasting effects, with men experiencing significantly higher levels of inactivity and women experiencing lower earnings and higher levels of welfare benefit claims at ages 19 to 28.

Generic and Branded Pharmaceutical Pricing: Competition Under Switching Costs

仿制药和品牌药定价:转换成本下的竞争

Aljoscha Janssen

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1937–1967, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead021

Abstract

This article examines pricing in pharmaceutical markets where branded products face competition from generics. After providing evidence for brand premia and switching costs using prescription-level and matched socioeconomic data for the entire Swedish population, I estimate a dynamic oligopoly model and evaluate counterfactual policies that reduce the impact of frictions on pricing. Lengthening the procurement period reduces the impact of switching costs on prices. The policy increases prices on average, but more so for individuals with infrequent consumption, high education and income. In a counterfactual where brand choice decisions are moved from patients to medical experts, prices fall substantially.

Designing Effective Teacher Performance Pay Programs: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania

设计有效的教师绩效薪酬方案:来自坦桑尼亚的实验证据

Isaac Mbitiand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1968–2000, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead010

Abstract

We use a nationally representative field experiment in Tanzania to compare two teacher performance pay systems in public primary schools: a ‘pay-for-percentile’ system (a rank-order tournament) and a ‘levels’ system that features multiple proficiency thresholds. Pay for percentile can potentially induce socially optimal effort among teachers, while levels systems can encourage teachers to focus on students near passing thresholds. Despite the theoretical advantage of the tournament system, we find that both systems improved student test scores across the distribution of initial learning levels after two years. However, the levels system is easier to implement and is more cost effective.

Tax Revenues in Low-Income Countries

低收入国家的税收

Adrian Peralta-Alvaand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2001–2024, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead023

Abstract

We quantitatively investigate the welfare costs of increasing tax revenues in low-income countries. We consider three tax instruments: consumption, labour income and capital income taxes. The analysis is based on a general equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous agents, incomplete financial markets, and rural and urban areas. We calibrate the model to Ethiopia and decompose the welfare costs into their aggregate and distributional components. We find that changing taxes alter the composition of demand. This, together with limited labour mobility, causes the incidence of higher taxes to fall disproportionately on the rural population, regardless of the instrument. Consumption taxes are the instrument with the largest welfare loss.

我们定量研究了低收入国家增加税收收入的福利成本。我们考虑三种税收工具:消费、劳动收入和资本所得税。这一分析基于一个以异质性代理人、不完全金融市场和城乡地区为特征的一般均衡模型。我们将该模型校准到埃塞俄比亚，并将福利成本分解为其总量和分配部分。我们发现，税收的变化会改变需求的构成。这一点，再加上劳动力流动性有限，导致无论采取何种手段，更高的税收都不成比例地落在农村人口身上。消费税是福利损失最大的工具。

Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies

休学:休学政策对教育生产的影响

Nolan G Popeand George W Zuo

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2025–2054, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead011

Abstract

Managing student behaviour is integral to the education production process. We study the trade-offs of school suspension policies by modelling and estimating how changes in school suspension policies causally impact student performance and teacher turnover. Our results indicate that the reduction in suspension rates in the Los Angeles Unified School District decreased math and English test scores, decreased grade point averages and increased absences. Teacher turnover also increased, particularly for inexperienced teachers. We also document an efficiency-equity trade-off: while achievement decreased for most students in the district, the highest-risk students experienced moderate gains in achievement.

Location, Location, Location: Manufacturing and House Price Growth

区位、区位、区位:制造业与房价增长

Xiangyu Fengand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2055–2067, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead008

Abstract

Exploiting data on tens of millions of housing transactions, we show that (1) house prices grew by less in manufacturing-heavy US regions, (2) this pattern is especially present for the lowest-value homes and that (3) price declines coincided with worse labour market outcomes, consistent with an income channel. Counterfactual accounting exercises reveal that regional differences in the growth of these lowest-value homes are an important driver of the changes in overall house price inequality. Hence, the economic decline in manufacturing-heavy areas extends far beyond income and employment flows to house prices.

利用数以千万计的房屋交易数据，我们发现(1)在制造业为主的美国地区，房价增长较少;(2)这种模式在价值最低的房屋中尤其存在;(3)价格下跌与劳动力市场结果更糟有关，这与收入渠道一致。反事实会计实践揭示，这些最低价值住房增长的地区差异是整体房价不平等变化的一个重要驱动因素。因此，以制造业为主的地区的经济下滑远远超出了收入和就业流，还影响到了房价。

Political Activists as Free Riders: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment

政治活动家是搭便车者:来自自然野外实验的证据

Anselm Hagerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2068–2084, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead020

How does a citizen’s decision to participate in political activism depend on the participation of others? We conduct a nationwide natural field experiment in collaboration with a major European party during a recent national election. In a party survey, we randomly provide canvassers with true information about the canvassing intentions of their peers. When learning that more peers participate in canvassing than previously believed, canvassers significantly reduce both their canvassing intentions and behaviour. An additional survey among party supporters underscores the importance of free-riding motives and reveals that there is strong heterogeneity in motives underlying supporters’ behavioural responses.

公民参与政治活动的决定如何取决于其他人的参与?在最近的一次全国选举中，我们与一个主要的欧洲政党合作，进行了一次全国性的自然田野实验。在政党调查中，我们随机向拉票人提供他们的同龄人的拉票意图的真实信息。当了解到参与拉票的同龄人比之前认为的更多时，拉票者会显著降低他们的拉票意图和行为。另一项对政党支持者的调查强调了搭便车动机的重要性，并揭示了支持者行为反应背后的动机存在强烈的异质性。