The World in 2021

The coming covid-19 credit crunch

A credit crunch is coming, says the World Bank’s chief economist

THE COVID-19 crisis did not start as a financial crisis, but it is morphing into one—and a global one at that. The headlines of 2020 have been dominated by news of the pandemic’s spread, record-shattering falls in output, and surges in poverty and the newly unemployed. Behind these disturbing trends a quieter financial balance-sheet crisis is gathering momentum across a broad swathe of countries. The financial fallout from the pandemic does not respect differences by region or income status. Financial institutions are facing (and will face for some time) a marked rise in non-performing loans (NPLS).

credit crunch：信贷紧缩；信贷危机

morph  v. /mɔːf/ 1.（使）变形（利用电脑动画制作使图像平稳变换）；2.（使）变化；（使）改变 

surge /sɜːdʒ/  

动词：

1.[ + adv./prep. ]涌；汹涌；涌动 •The gates opened and the crowd surged forward. 大门打开了，人群向前涌去。

2.[ + adv./prep. ] 使强烈地感到 •Relief surged through her. 她顿觉宽慰。

3.(物价、利润等) 急剧上升；飞涨；激增 •Share prices surged. 股价猛涨。

4.(电流) 浪涌

名词

1.~ (of sth) （强烈感情的）突发 •She felt a sudden surge of anger. 她突然感觉怒火中烧。

2.~ (in/of sth) （数量的）急剧上升，激增；大量；一大批 •a surge in consumer spending 消费开支的激增

3.~ (of sth) 奔涌向前；突然的向上运动 •a tidal surge 涨潮

4.（电流）浪涌 •An electrical surge damaged the computer's disk drive. 电流浪涌损坏了计算机的磁盘驱动器。

momentum  /məˈmentəm/ n. 势头；[物] 动量；动力；冲力

Swathe /sweɪð/ n. （割了庄稼的）一长条田地；一长条；绷带，包装物；v. 包，裹；紧绑

Fallout  n./ˈfɔːlaʊt/1.（核爆炸后的）放射性坠尘；2.后果；余波

non-performing loans (NPLS)：不良贷款

Historically, banking crises emerge after a lengthy expansion in economic activity. Growth is often fuelled by a credit boom and rising leverage. Under the motto of “this time is different”, asset-price bubbles emerge during the biblical “seven fat years” (whether in property, commodities, equity or bonds). As the economic expansion slows and turns into recession, loans made during the good times turn sour. Sometimes balance-sheet problems undermine confidence, and runs on banks and financial institutions turn the crisis into a fully fledged panic. Households and firms attempt to deleverage after the crisis, even as banks adopt tighter lending standards. If banks resist writing down bad loans in favour of “evergreening”, as was the case in Japan’s crisis in the early 1990s and in Europe after 2007-09, the resulting credit crunch may be longer and more severe, even surpassing the biblical “seven lean years”.

lengthy  adj. /ˈleŋθi/ 很长的；漫长的；冗长的 • lengthy delays 多次长时间拖延

seven fat years：圣经中的“七个丰年”，圣经中法老通过异梦得知埃及七个丰年之后就是七个灾年，需要未雨绸缪，预防灾荒。

Undermine  v. /ˌʌndəˈmaɪn/  1.逐渐削弱（信心、权威等）；使逐步减少效力 •This crisis has undermined his position. 这场危机已损害了他的地位。 2. 从根基处破坏；挖…的墙脚

fully fledged /ˌfʊli ˈfledʒd/ 成熟的；完全合格的 • the emergence of a fully fledged market economy 成熟市场经济的出现

runs on banks and financial institutions ：挤兑银行和金融机构

deleverage /diːˈlɛvərɪdʒ, -vrɪdʒ/ V (机构)减债

Evergreening：为延期产品专利而采取一系列法律和商业策略，其目的是在专利过期之后，能够延长对专利的控制。

But this time truly is different. The run-up to the credit crunch in 2021 does not fit the historical boom-bust pattern in many countries. It is not predicated on having experienced an economic expansion or an asset-price bubble. The common threads to the evolving balance-sheet crisis and the credit crunch that will follow are the historic magnitudes and likely persistence of the slump in economic activity. It is also a regressive crisis, disproportionally hitting low-income households and smaller firms that have fewer assets to avert insolvency.

run-up to：跑到、累计到、达到

Bust  v. 打破；炸破；猛烈打击；突击搜捕；n. 胸围；半身像；经济萧条；逮捕； 没价值的事物；adj. 坏的；破产的

Thread  /θred/ n. 线；螺纹；思路；衣服；线状物；玻璃纤维；路线；vt. 穿过；穿线于；使交织；vi. 通过；穿透过

disproportionally /,dɪsprə'pɔrʃənli/ adv. 不均衡地；不相称地

Insolvency  /ɪnˈsɒlvənsi/ n. 破产，无力偿还；倒闭

High leverage on the eve of the pandemic will amplify the balance-sheet problems of the financial sector. Companies in the world’s largest economies, America and China, are highly indebted and skewed towards high-risk borrowers. The IMF has repeatedly flagged concerns about the pre-pandemic rise in corporate leverage in many emerging markets, where much debt is denominated in dollars. Six months into the covid-19 crisis, S&P had downgraded or cut the outlook on almost 60% of the Latin American companies it rates. For the rest of the world the share is about 35-40%. Exposure to commercial property, as malls remain half-empty, is another source of concern in many parts of the world.

on the eve of ：在···的前夜

Amplify  v./ˈæmplɪfaɪ/  

1.放大，增强（声音等） •to amplify a guitar/an electric current/a signal 放大吉他声音╱电流╱信号

2.阐发，充实（故事、事情、陈述等） •She refused to amplify further. 她拒绝提供详情。

Skewed  adj./skjuːd/  

1. (信息)歪曲的；有偏颇的；不准确的 •skewed statistics 不准确的统计

2.~ (towards sb/sth) 偏向（或偏重）…的 •The book is heavily skewed towards American readers. 这本书严重倾向于美国读者。

3.偏的；斜的；歪的 •The car had ended up skewed across the road. 汽车最终斜着停在公路上。

译文   

THE COVID-19 crisis did not start as a financial crisis, but it is morphing into one—and a global one at that. The headlines of 2020 have been dominated by news of the pandemic’s spread, record-shattering falls in output, and surges in poverty and the newly unemployed. Behind these disturbing trends a quieter financial balance-sheet crisis is gathering momentum across a broad swathe of countries. The financial fallout from the pandemic does not respect differences by region or income status. Financial institutions are facing (and will face for some time) a marked rise in non-performing loans (NPLS).

新冠危机虽不是以金融危机开启但正在形成一个金融危机——而且是全球性的。2020年的头版头条都被新冠疫情新闻牢牢掌控：疫情扩散、产出破纪录的下降、穷困和失业人口激增。在这令人不安的状况背后一场安静的金融资产负债表危机正在聚集，波及一长串的国家。这场疫情导致的金融危机一视同仁，不论地区不同与国家财富多少。金融机构正在面临或者将面临显著增长的不良信贷。

Historically, banking crises emerge after a lengthy expansion in economic activity. Growth is often fuelled by a credit boom and rising leverage. Under the motto of “this time is different”, asset-price bubbles emerge during the biblical “seven fat years” (whether in property, commodities, equity or bonds). As the economic expansion slows and turns into recession, loans made during the good times turn sour. Sometimes balance-sheet problems undermine confidence, and runs on banks and financial institutions turn the crisis into a fully fledged panic. Households and firms attempt to deleverage after the crisis, even as banks adopt tighter lending standards. If banks resist writing down bad loans in favour of “evergreening”, as was the case in Japan’s crisis in the early 1990s and in Europe after 2007-09, the resulting credit crunch may be longer and more severe, even surpassing the biblical “seven lean years”.

从历史上来说，经济活动的漫长扩张之后出现了银行危机。信贷繁荣和杠杆提高刺激着增长。在“这次不一样”的口号下，资产价格泡沫出现在如圣经中的“七个丰年”的繁荣时期（不管是房地产、商品还是股票和债券）。当经济扩张变缓，转向衰退期，繁荣时期的贷款变质，成为不良贷款。有的时候资产负债表上的问题会破坏信任，银行和金融机构的挤兑会将危机演变成一个全方位的恐慌。家庭和公司试图在危机之后减持债务，甚至银行也采取紧缩借贷政策。如果银行拒绝减记不良贷款，而是不断“延期”，如同90年代初的日本经济危机和2007-09年的欧洲，则造成的信贷危机有可能持续更长时间和更加严重，甚至可能超过圣经中的“七个灾年”。

But this time truly is different. The run-up to the credit crunch in 2021 does not fit the historical boom-bust pattern in many countries. It is not predicated on having experienced an economic expansion or an asset-price bubble. The common threads to the evolving balance-sheet crisis and the credit crunch that will follow are the historic magnitudes and likely persistence of the slump in economic activity. It is also a regressive crisis, disproportionally hitting low-income households and smaller firms that have fewer assets to avert insolvency.

但这次不一样，逐渐积聚到2021年的信贷危机并不符合多数国家历史常规的繁荣-衰退模式。世界并没有正在经历经济扩张或者资产价格泡沫。将要到来的不断演变的资产负债表危机和通货紧缩危机的共同线索是他们造成的经济活动低迷是历史级别的，而且持续长久。它还是一场经济退化危机，强力冲击着资产稀少，难以抵御破产的低收入家庭和小微企业。

High leverage on the eve of the pandemic will amplify the balance-sheet problems of the financial sector. Companies in the world’s largest economies, America and China, are highly indebted and skewed towards high-risk borrowers. The IMF has repeatedly flagged concerns about the pre-pandemic rise in corporate leverage in many emerging markets, where much debt is denominated in dollars. Six months into the covid-19 crisis, S&P had downgraded or cut the outlook on almost 60% of the Latin American companies it rates. For the rest of the world the share is about 35-40%. Exposure to commercial property, as malls remain half-empty, is another source of concern in many parts of the world.

疫情前夜的高杠杆会增加金融方面的资产负债问题。在中美两个世界最大经济体中的企业都债务高举，滑向高风险借款人。国际货币基金组织在疫情前就反复强调对许多新兴市场中企业的高杠杆担忧，并且这些地方的债务基本是美元主导。新冠疫情爆发6个月，标普对拉丁美洲国家60%的企业进行信用降级或者降低对其未来的前景预期。其他地区约35%-40%。在世界许多地方，由于商场基本是半空状态，商业地产风险敞开是另一个令人担忧的问题。

经济学人2020年末