The future of Shopping—One-to-one commerce

Not since the Industrial revolution has Shopping been in such upheaval, writes Henry Tricks

To understand the historic importance of such a shift, start in 16th-century England. As Dorothy Davis, a former Economist writer, explained in her book from the 1960s,"A History of Shopping" the first retail revolution occurred in the Elizabethanera when craftsmen, who until then had traded one-to-one with customers, setup the first shops to peddle other people's wares, earning mark-ups on what they sold.

Centuries later came the Industrial revolution,which led to the second big retail transformation.This was a new system of factory-produced goods that a growing number of working-class shoppers could afford. Supported by a blitz of advertising, these goods were distributed by shops that grew in size to benefit from economies of scale. The set-up is familiar to many today: mass production supports mass consumption.

Elizabethan  adj. /ɪˌlɪzəˈbiːθn/  (1558–1603) 伊丽莎白女王一世时代的

Peddle  v. /ˈpedl/  1.挨户销售；巡回销售 •He worked as a door-to-door salesman peddling cloths and brushes. 他的工作是上门推销抹布和刷子。•to peddle illegal drugs 贩卖毒品；2.兜售，宣传，传播（思想、消息）•to peddle malicious gossip 散布恶意的流言飞语

mark-up  n. /ˈmɑːkʌp/ 1.（基于成本价与销售价之间差价的）加成 •an average markup of 10% 平均10%的加成 2.[ U ] (计)标记，标记符号（标示计算机文档结构和显示、打印形式）•a markup language 标记语言

blitz /blɪts/  名词1. 集中力量的行动；闪击式行动 •an advertising/ a media blitz (= a lot of information about sth on television, in newspapers, etc.) 集中火力的广告╱媒体宣传；2.~ (on sth) a sudden attack 突袭；闪电战 •a blitz on passengers who avoid paying fares 对逃票乘客的突袭检查3.the Blitz  1940年德国对英国的空袭。4.动词：用闪电战空袭（或毁坏）

The third retail revolution, today's digital age, turns that model on its head, creating, in retailers'jargon, a consumers"pull"system rather than a producers "push" one. As Mark Cohen, director of retail studies at Columbia University Graduate School of Business in New York, says: "At the turn of the 20th century, the commander-in-chief of commerce was the retailer, with the manufacturer as equal partner. Today it's the customer who's in charge."

Jargon  n. /ˈdʒɑːɡən/ 行话；黑话；行业术语；切口 • medical/legal/computer, etc. jargon 医学、法律、计算机等术语

Pull and Push：这里是供应链中常用的策略模式

图片来源：https://articles.e-works.net.cn/scm/Article131494.htm

In the West, this upheaval causes trepidation.That is because the retail infrastructure was not built forthe digital age. America has 24 square feet of retail Space per person, according to Bernstein, three times as much as Britain and six times as much as China. In America more than 8,700 stores closed last year, says Coresight Research, a data firm. In Britain 16,000 stores shut and 183,000 retail jobs were lost, estimates the Centre for Retail Research. Pace Nike,one of the worst-hit sectors has been clothing and footwear. Those opening stores are mostly discounters.

Trepidation  n. /ˌtrepɪˈdeɪʃn/惊恐；恐惧；惊惶；不安

In parts of Asia, however, this is a time of exuberance. China's embrace of e-commerce reflects the ubiquity of smartphones, the shortage of attractive Shopping centres beyond the big cities, and high urban density, which cuts the cost of delivery.Yet China also stands out for a level of innovation, such as live-streaming by celebrity lipstick-sellers, that few saw coming. Like Nike, some Chinese tech firms are taking advantage of people's digital trail to change the way goods are produced—and even to produce high-tech ways to improve fruit and vegetable yields on farms.

Exuberance /ɪɡˈzjuːbərəns/ n.丰富，茂盛；健康；感情洋溢(或慷慨激昂)的言行；(感情等的)过度(或极度)表现

ubiquity/juːˈbɪkwəti/n. 普遍存在；到处存在      live-streaming：直播

Yet even in China, the ultimate goal is not to leapfrog the store. Alibaba, China's biggest e-commerce firm, has brought the latest digital razzmatazz, such as cashier-free shops and video promotions, to its supermarkets in the biggest cities. Along with JD.com and Pinduoduo, its closest rivals, it is working with grocery shops in the farthest-flung villages to make distribution of goods cheaper and more efficient. Daniel Zipser of McKinsey, a consultancy, says 374 large malls were opened in China last year.Prices for retail property in city centres have shown no meaningful fall.

leapfrog /ˈliːpfrɒɡ/ 跳背游戏（游戏者轮流从其他弯背人身上跳过）

far-ˈflung  adj. /ˌfɑː ˈflʌŋ/ 1.遥远的•expeditions to the far-flung corners of the world 去世界偏远地方的探险；2.分布广的；广泛的 •a newsletter that helps to keep all our far-flung graduates in touch 使我们分布在各地的毕业生保持联系的通讯

razzmatazz  n. /ˌræzməˈtæz/ ( /ˌræzəməˈtæz/ ) ( also ˌrazzle-ˈdazzle ) [ U ]令人眼花缭乱的活动 • The documentary focuses on the razzmatazz of an American political campaign. 这部纪录影片着重展现出一场美国政治运动令人眼花缭乱的一面。

译文

revolutionary days（变革时代）

To understand the historic importance of such a shift, start in 16th-century England. As Dorothy Davis, a former Economist writer, explained in her book from the 1960s,"A History of Shopping" the first retail revolution occurred in the Elizabethan era when craftsmen, who until then had traded one-to-one with customers, setup the first shops to peddle other people's wares, earning mark-ups on what they sold.

Centuries later came the Industrial revolution,which led to the second big retail transformation.This was a new system of factory-produced goods that a growing number of working-class shoppers could afford.Supported by a blitz of advertising, these goods were distributed by shops that grew in size to benefit from economies of scale. The set-up is familiar to many today: mass production supports mass consumption.

要理解这种转变的历史重要性，可以从16世纪的英国开始。前经济学作家多萝西·戴维斯，在她60年代出版书籍《购物的历史》中解释：第一次零售革命发生在伊丽莎白时代，那时候的手艺人曾是与客户一对一的交易模式，后来开办第一家商店兜售别人的商品从而赚取差价。

几个世纪后，工业革命爆发，导致了零售业的第二次大变革。这是一种工厂生产商品的新体系，越来越多的工薪阶层购物者能够负担得起。在大量广告的冲击下，这些商品由规模扩大的商店分销，从而从规模经济中获益。这种模式对今天的许多人来说都很熟悉:大规模生产支持大规模消费。

The third retail revolution, today's digital age, turns that model on its head, creating, in retailers'jargon, a consumers"pull"system rather than a producers "push" one. As Mark Cohen, director of retail studies at Columbia University Graduate School of Business in New York, says: "At the turn of the 20th century, the commander-in-chief of commerce was the retailer, with the manufacturer as equal partner. Today it's the customer who's in charge."

第三次零售革命，即今天的数字时代，颠覆了这种模式，用零售商的行话来说，创造了一个消费者“拉动”的系统，而不是生产者“推”的系统。正如纽约哥伦比亚大学商学院(Columbia University Graduate School of Business)零售研究主管马克•科恩(Mark Cohen)所言:“在20世纪之交，商业的总司令是零售商，制造商是平等的合作伙伴。现在是顾客说了算。”

In the West, this upheaval causes trepidation.That is because the retail infrastructure was not built forthe digital age. America has 24 square feet of retail Space per person, according to Bernstein, three times as much as Britain and six times as much as China. In America more than 8,700 stores closed last year, says Coresight Research, a data firm. In Britain 16,000 stores shut and 183,000 retail jobs were lost, estimates the Centre for Retail Research. Pace Nike,one of the worst-hit sectors has been clothing and footwear. Those opening stores are mostly discounters.

在西方，这一剧变引起了恐慌。这是因为零售基础设施不是为数字时代而建的。根据伯恩斯坦的数据，美国的人均零售面积为24平方英尺，是英国的三倍，中国的六倍。数据公司Coresight Research称，去年美国有8700多家门店关闭。据英国零售研究中心估计，英国有1.6万家商店关门，18.3万个零售岗位失业。服装和鞋类是受冲击最严重的行业之一。那些新开的商店大多是折扣店。

In parts of Asia, however, this is a time of exuberance. China's embrace of e-commerce reflects the ubiquity of smartphones, the shortage of attractive Shopping centres beyond the big cities, and high urban density, which cuts the cost of delivery.Yet China also stands out for a level of innovation, such as live-streaming by celebrity lipstick-sellers, that few saw coming. Like Nike, some Chinese tech firms are taking advantage of people's digital trail to change the way goods are produced—and even to produce high-tech ways to improve fruit and vegetable yields on farms.

然而，亚洲部分地区正处于繁荣时期。中国对电子商务的热衷，反映了智能手机无处不在、大城市以外缺乏有吸引力的购物中心、以及降低了送货成本的城市高密度。然而，中国也在一定程度上的创新上脱颖而出，比如很少有人预见到的明星口红销售商的直播。像耐克一样，一些中国科技公司正在利用人们的数字足迹来改变商品的生产方式，甚至利用高科技方法来提高农场水果和蔬菜的产量。

Yet even in China, the ultimate goal is not to leapfrog the store. Alibaba, China's biggest e-commerce firm, has brought the latest digital razzmatazz, such as cashier-free shops and video promotions, to its supermarkets in the biggest cities. Along with JD.com and Pinduoduo, its closest rivals, it is working with grocery shops in the farthest-flung villages to make distribution of goods cheaper and more efficient. Daniel Zipser of McKinsey, a consultancy, says 374 large malls were opened in China last year.Prices for retail property in city centres have shown no meaningful fall.

然而，即使在中国，最终目标也不是超越商店。中国最大的电子商务公司阿里巴巴为其大城市的超市带来了最新的数字噱头，如无人售货商店和视频促销。与最接近的竞争对手京东(JD.com)和拼多多一样，京东正在与偏远村庄的杂货店合作，以使商品配送更便宜、更高效。咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)的丹尼尔•齐普瑟(Daniel Zipser)表示，去年中国新开了374家大型购物中心。市中心零售地产的价格没有出现有意义的下跌。