（文章翻译）拜占庭安纳托利亚的气候和环境：整合科学、历史和考古学（第三部分）
Author(s): John Haldon, Neil Roberts, Adam Izdebski, Dominik Fleitmann, Michael McCormick, Marica Cassis, Owen Doonan, Warren Eastwood, Hugh Elton, Sabine Ladstätter, Sturt Manning, James Newhard, Kathleen Nicoll, Ioannes Telelis and Elena Xoplaki
Published by: The MIT Press
翻译：神尾智代
接上
The case for Anatolia
安纳托利亚的案例
Byzantine Anatolia is a fitting locus for a multidisciplinary study because it is has three vital types of data in abundance - written, archaeological, and palaeoenvironmental (see Table i). Other candidates, like the ancient Maya lowlands, are weak in the written component or, like early modern and modern Europe, are already well documented in both historical and paleoclimatic records. Anatolia's historical data allows us to test such critical causal propositions as "drought causes societal collapse," which would be difficult to falsify in a setting without documentary evidence - say, the end of the Early Bronze Age in the Middle East. Nor does it hurt that Anatolia is currently a major focus of attention with regard to climate change.
拜占庭安纳托利亚是多学科研究的合适地点，因为它拥有丰富的三种重要数据类型——书面数据、考古数据和古环境数据（见表 1）。其他候选者，如古代玛雅低地，在书面成分方面较弱，或者像早期现代和现代欧洲一样，已经在历史和古气候记录中得到了很好的记录。安纳托利亚的历史数据使我们能够检验诸如“干旱导致社会崩溃”之类的关键因果命题，在没有文件证据的情况下很难证伪——例如，中东早期青铜时代结束。安纳托利亚目前是气候变化的主要关注焦点，这也无伤大雅。
Following a workshop at Princeton University in May 2013, a small group of climate and environmental scientists, historians, and archaeologists established a project to examine Anatolia and adjacent lands between the second/third century and the thirteenth/ fourteenth century C.E. - the period that saw the "decline and fall" of the Roman Empire in the west, the survival of the Byzantine Empire (something of a misnomer but a well-established one) in the east, the rise of the Arab-Islamic Empire in the eastern provinces of the late Roman state during the seventh century C.E., the appearance of Turkic peoples first in Iran and then the Middle East from the later tenth and eleventh centuries C.E. and their occupation of the Anatolian plateau, and the rise of Ottoman power (see appendix 2 for a selective list of historical events). This article deals primarily with the early part of the period.
继 2013 年 5 月在普林斯顿大学举办的研讨会之后，一小群气候和环境科学家、历史学家和考古学家建立了一个项目，以检查公元 2/3 世纪和 13/14 世纪之间的安纳托利亚和邻近土地——这一时期见证了 西方罗马帝国的“衰亡”，东方拜占庭帝国的存亡（用词不当，但已确立），阿拉伯伊斯兰帝国在东部省份的崛起 公元 7 世纪晚期的罗马国家，突厥人首先出现在伊朗，然后从公元 10 世纪和 11 世纪后期开始出现在中东，他们对安纳托利亚高原的占领，以及奥斯曼帝国的崛起（见附录 2） 历史事件的选择性列表）。本文主要讨论该时期的早期阶段。
Environmentally, Anatolia and the southern Balkans are subject to three large-scale circulation systems that affect the region at different times of the year - the North Atlantic system, the South Asian summer monsoonal system, and the continental winter climate system, anchored over northern Asia, western Russia, and Siberia. Anatolia also contains a wide range of geographies, from open lowlands and upland plains to mountains, forests, and steppes, as well as significant variations in climate. Some parts of the area have extremely cold winters with considerable snow, while others have mostly damp winters; summers vary from damp and hot to dry and extremely hot.
在环境方面，安纳托利亚和巴尔干南部受三个大规模环流系统的影响，这些系统在一年中的不同时间影响该地区——北大西洋系统、南亚夏季风系统和大陆冬季气候系统，锚定在亚洲北部 、俄罗斯西部和西伯利亚。 安纳托利亚还包含广泛的地理范围，从开阔的低地和高地平原到山脉、森林和草原，以及气候的显着变化。 该地区的某些地区冬季极其寒冷，降雪量很大，而其他地区的冬季大多潮湿； 夏季从潮湿炎热到干燥极端炎热不等。
As Figure 2a indicates, central and western Anatolia, along with Thrace, show a notable spatial coherence of temperature and precipitation during the recent period of instrumental measurements. Such coherence is also likely to have been the case during the last two millennia (although, interestingly, the southern Levant has shown an opposite pattern). The fact that this same area broadly coincides with the extent of Byzantine Anatolia between 660 C.E. and 1071 C.E. permits us to map the two directly onto each other (Figure 2b).
如图 2a 所示，在最近的仪器测量期间，安纳托利亚中部和西部以及色雷斯显示出显着的温度和降水空间一致性。 在过去的两千年里，这种连贯性也很可能出现（尽管有趣的是，黎凡特南部表现出相反的模式）。 这同一地区与公元 660 年至公元 1071 年之间拜占庭安纳托利亚的范围大体一致，这一事实使我们能够将两者直接映射到彼此上（图 2b）。
Anatolia supports a substantial microregional differentiation in climate, land use and demographic history; the relationship between historically attested extreme weather events, longer-term climate change, and socio-economic organization there presents singular opportunities and challenges. Since the Roman, early medieval European, and early and middle Byzantine era, unlike more recent historical periods, has no continuous written records, the uncertainties accompanying the integration of historical, archaeological, climatic data abound. Yet, thanks to the introduction of new approaches and new sources, the study of Anatolia promises to expand and deepen our understanding of how society functioned, particularly when environmental changes stressed that society. The whole is considerably greater in this respect than the sum of the parts in such a project: The interaction of climate scientists and palaeoenvironmentalists with historians and archaeologists promotes a much better understanding of the methodological problems that specialists encounter, as well as a more coherent and synthetically persuasive integrated interpretation of the various datasets that they deliver to each other.
安纳托利亚在气候、土地利用和人口历史方面支持显着的微观区域差异；历史证明的极端天气事件、长期气候变化与那里的社会经济组织之间的关系带来了独特的机遇和挑战。由于罗马、中世纪早期的欧洲和拜占庭时代的早期和中期，不像最近的历史时期，没有连续的书面记录，伴随着历史、考古、气候数据整合的不确定性比比皆是。然而，由于引入了新方法和新资源，对安纳托利亚的研究有望扩大和加深我们对社会如何运作的理解，特别是当环境变化对社会造成压力时。在这方面，整体比这样一个项目中各个部分的总和要大得多：气候科学家和古环境学家与历史学家和考古学家的互动促进了对专家遇到的方法问题的更好理解，以及更加连贯和对它们相互提供的各种数据集的综合有说服力的综合解释。
Human adaptation and climatic change
人类适应和气候变化
Anatolia is relatively rich in useful palaeoenvironmental data compared to other parts of the Eastern Mediterranean; we know a good deal about its vegetation and land-use history thanks to palynology. One phenomenon on which palynological data from Georgia and Iranian Azerbaijan across to the Balkans and the Levant shed light is the Beysehir Occupation Phase (BOP), a distinctive Late Holocene period of anthropogenic activity marked by the cultivation of olive and nut trees, cereal growing, and pastoralism - the dominant form of agrarian exploitation from the Late Bronze Age to the Hellenistic-Roman and Byzantine world in the Eastern Mediterranean (c. 300 B.C.E. to c. 700/800 C.E.). Although it began and ended in different places at different times, the bop roughly dates from the "Minoan Warm period" c. 1500 B.C.E. to the markedly cooler seventh/ eighth century C.E, identified chiefly through the evidence of pollen found in such natural deposits as lake beds. Although most clearly evident in the upland valleys of southwest Anatolia, it is also recorded in pollen diagrams from sites in central and northwestern Turkey and parts of Greece. Archaeologists associate this phase with a range of material-cultural phenotypes characteristic of the classical cultures of antiquity.
与东地中海其他地区相比，安纳托利亚拥有相对丰富的有用古环境数据；由于孢粉学，我们对它的植被和土地利用历史有了很多了解。从格鲁吉亚和伊朗阿塞拜疆到巴尔干和黎凡特的孢粉学数据揭示的一个现象是 Beysehir 占领阶段 (BOP)，这是一个独特的全新世晚期人类活动，以橄榄树和坚果树的种植、谷物种植、和畜牧业 - 从青铜时代晚期到东地中海的希腊罗马和拜占庭世界（公元前 300 年至公元 700/800 年）的主要农业剥削形式。虽然它在不同的时间开始和结束的地方不同，但波普大致可以追溯到“米诺斯暖期”。公元前 1500 年到明显凉爽的公元七/八世纪，主要是通过在湖床等天然沉积物中发现的花粉证据来确定的。尽管在安纳托利亚西南部的高地山谷中最为明显，但在土耳其中部和西北部以及希腊部分地区的花粉图中也有记录。考古学家将这一阶段与一系列具有古代古典文化特征的物质文化表型联系起来。
The debate about the end date for the bop is explicable only partially by the imprecision of the chronologies derived from the various data sets. In certain sites with well-defined timescales, the end is dated to the middle or later seventh century C.E., whereas in others, its termination is earlier, sometimes considerably so. The pollen at the sites of Lakes Beysehir and Hoyran suggest a date in the middle years of the sixth century (see Figure 3 and Table 2). Those at Lake Bafa on the Aegean Coast and the one at Köycegiz on the southern coast indicate that BOP-type agriculture ceased during the later third or fourth century.
关于BOP结束日期的争论只能部分地通过从各种数据集得出的年表的不精确性来解释。 在某些具有明确时间尺度的地点，结束时间可以追溯到公元 7 世纪中后期，而在其他地点，它的结束时间更早，有时甚至相当可观。 Beysehir 湖和 Hoyran 湖遗址的花粉表明年代为 6 世纪中叶（见图 3 和表 2）。 爱琴海沿岸的 Bafa 湖和南部海岸的 Köycegiz 的那些表明 BOP 型农业在 3 或 4 世纪后期停止了。
What caused this discrepancy? Did the change occur synchronously or diachronously across different regions? Furthermore, to what extent did its end coincide with observable changes in the social, economic, and political histories of the regions in which it had been dominant? It should be borne in mind that the relatively few 碳14 dates offered by older pollen studies derived from bulk organic matter rather than AMS dating, which can be applied to much smaller samples (for example, single charred cereal grains) and achieve smaller statistical age uncertainty. Hence, dating of the bop's end in most of these older records has a precision of no better than ±200 years. What is clear is that almost all of the records show a sharp decline in anthropogenic indicators and a rise in pine pollen at some point during the middle of the first millennium C.E., indicating a decline in rural agriculture and a re-wilding of many landscapes.
是什么导致了这种差异？ 变化是同步发生还是历时发生在不同地区？ 此外，它的结束在多大程度上与它曾经统治过的地区的社会、经济和政治历史的可观察变化相吻合？ 应该记住，较旧的花粉研究提供的碳 14 日期相对较少，来自散装有机物质而不是 AMS 测年，它可以应用于小得多的样本（例如，单一烧焦的谷物）并实现更小的统计年龄 不确定。 因此，在大多数这些较旧的记录中，对波峰末端的测年精度不超过±200 年。 清楚的是，几乎所有的记录都显示，在公元第一个千年中期的某个时间点，人为指标急剧下降，松花粉增加，表明农村农业下降，许多景观重新野化。
Although anthropogenic factors probably played a major role in the appearance of the BOP, a beneficial climate régime must have had something to do with it; thus, the relationship between human and climatic factors still needs to be addressed. Although the appearance of the BOP coincides with the rise of the first major state formations in several areas, the climatic "tipping points" for substantive change clearly varied. The economic and social-political developments that accompanied the end of the BOP comprise only part of the many complex changes that Byzantium - in particular, its Anatolian territories - underwent from 400 C to 1400 C.E.
尽管人为因素可能在 BOP 的出现中发挥了重要作用，但有利的气候制度肯定与它有关； 因此，人类因素与气候因素之间的关系仍需处理。 尽管国际收支的出现恰逢几个地区的第一批主要国家形态的兴起，但实质性变化的气候“临界点”显然各不相同。 伴随国际收支结束的经济和社会政治发展只是拜占庭——特别是其安纳托利亚领土——从公元 400 年到公元 1400 年所经历的许多复杂变化的一部分。
How we understand the Byzantine response to the crisis of the later seventh and early eighth centuries depends on the palaeoclimatic work discussed above. It reveals that much, but not all, of Anatolia experienced a wetter climate from the sixth to the later seventh century, possibly stretching into the early eighth century in some areas, although the end of this humid phase varies by site: at Nar Gölü in central Cappadocia (known by the tenth century as "lesser Cappadocia)" and at Çôl Gölü near Çankin (Gaggra) to the east of Ankara - typical of the central sections of the plateau 750 C; at Tecer Gölü in northwestern Cappadocia the later eighth century; and at Gravgaz marsh in southwestern Anatolia the middle of the seventh century.
我们如何理解拜占庭对 7 世纪后期和 8 世纪早期危机的反应取决于上面讨论的古气候工作。 它表明，从六世纪到七世纪后期，安纳托利亚的大部分（但不是全部）经历了更潮湿的气候，在某些地区可能会延续到八世纪初期，尽管这一潮湿阶段的结束因地点而异：在纳尔格吕 卡帕多西亚中部（10 世纪称为“小卡帕多西亚”）和安卡拉以东 Çankin (Gaggra) 附近的 Çôl Gölü - 典型的高原中央部分 750 C； 八世纪后期在卡帕多西亚西北部的 Tecer Gölü； 七世纪中叶在安纳托利亚西南部的格拉夫加兹沼泽。
Temperature is also important in Anatolia and the Byzantine world. Given its raised central plateau, and marked variations in elevation, the cooling associated with reduced solar activity (major solar minimum in the seventh century C.E.) would have had varying effects. These effects would have been most pronounced in the most elevated areas with longer snow-covered winters, reduced growing seasons, and generally less favorable circumstances for certain crops and types of farming. But, notwithstanding the limited nature of the data, this general climatic pattern seems to have been replicated, with minor variations, across Anatolia. Indeed, the available textual evidence from the wider eastern Mediterranean and Levantine context hints at the instability that these climatic conditions promoted - a comparatively greater number of severe winters and apparently unusually severe frosts and snows across the later sixth and into the eighth century in the Levant and Asia Minor, as well as occasional droughts and aridity-related events. A recent analysis of Arabic written sources from Baghdad (Iraq) for the period 830 C.E. to the early eleventh century, for example, found a preponderance of cold-winter anomalies for the first part of the tenth century.
温度在安纳托利亚和拜占庭世界也很重要。鉴于其中央高原隆起和海拔的显着变化，与太阳活动减少（公元 7 世纪的主要太阳活动极小期）相关的冷却会产生不同的影响。这些影响在海拔最高的地区最为明显，这些地区的冬季积雪更长，生长季节缩短，某些作物和耕作类型的环境通常不太有利。但是，尽管数据的性质有限，但这种普遍的气候模式似乎已在整个安纳托利亚复制，只是略有不同。事实上，来自更广泛的东地中海和黎凡特背景的现有文本证据暗示了这些气候条件促进的不稳定性——在黎凡特的六世纪后期和八世纪，严冬的数量相对较多，并且明显异常严重的霜冻和降雪和小亚细亚，以及偶尔的干旱和干旱相关事件。例如，最近对公元 830 年至 11 世纪早期巴格达（伊拉克）阿拉伯文字资料的分析发现，10 世纪上半叶出现了大量的冬季异常现象。
未完待续
