The new rules  --- A changed world

International commerce needs firmer underpinnings

WHAT IS THE biggest threat to world trade? Stressed supply-chain managers might say new logistical bottlenecks that have seen the cost of shipping rocket recently. Macroeconomists could offer demand change, notably the depressive effect of a possible renewed pandemic. But those taking a longer view might point to the new order of trade policy, which involves more intimidation, discrimination and ultimately, isolation. In short, the very foundations of the multilateral trading system are under assault, from several directions at once.

Intimidation /ɪnˌtɪmɪˈdeɪʃn/恫吓，威胁

Some of this reflects adaptation to changed political objectives, such as new concerns to respond to human-rights abuses or to climate change. A back-of-the-envelope calculation based on estimates by the OECD suggests that a carbon tariff based on a CO2 price of $75 a tonne may represent an average extra cost of only around 2%. That seems manageable. When the risk of shocks is rising, whether from natural disasters, pandemics or the willingness of foreigners to weaponise their economic clout, it makes sense to work up strategies for coping. That could mean diversification through trade deals, constructive co-ordination over standards, or sensible stockpiling.

back-of-the-envelope：粗略的，大概的，不精确的（计算）

clout /klaʊt/ 1.影响力；势力•political/financial clout 政治╱经济势力2.（用手或硬物的）击，打

stockpile  /ˈstɒkpaɪl/  囤聚的物资•the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons 全世界的核武器储备；动词：大量储备

But as well-intentioned governments try to co-ordinate new ways to add non-trade goals to commerce, the risk of mismanagement or the proliferation of special interests is high. Economic nationalism crafted behind trade barriers could coddle companies, impede technology transfer or limit the profits available for research and development. Subsidies could distort trade flows and generate tensions between allies as they fight over who should bear the cost of supply that is greater than demand. Over the long run, the extra anxiety around international supply chains could mean that national borders come to matter more in practice than they should do in theory.

Coddle v. /ˈkɒdl/娇惯；娇养；溺爱

Impede v. /ɪmˈpiːd/阻碍；阻止 Work on the building was impeded by severe weather. 楼房的施工因天气恶劣而停了下来。

Push all this to its limits, and there is a risk that the forces of globalisation could even go into reverse. That supply chains now so often criss-cross international borders actually raises the cost of trade barriers. If the EU had cut off vaccine exports to Britain in early 2021 amid a heated row over scarce supplies, it might have jeopardized crucial inputs for its own production. But that could be changing. Reshoring supply chains may, ironically, increase the likelihood of new trade barriers in future as it makes them less costly. And that could raise the incentive to start unraveling today's close economic relationships.

Reshoring supply chains ：指的是供应链迁回国内，供应链“回流”

unravel  v. /ʌnˈrævl/ 1.（把缠或织在一起的线）解开，拆散，松开 •I unravelled the string and wound it into a ball. 我把绳子解开并绕成一个球。2.( 系统、计划、关系等 ) 解体；崩溃；瓦解；3.阐释；说明；澄清；变得清楚易懂 • The discovery will help scientists unravel the mystery of the Ice Age. 这一发现将有助于科学家揭开冰川时代的奥秘。 

 译文

WHAT IS THE biggest threat to world trade? Stressed supply-chain managers might say new logistical bottlenecks that have seen the cost of shipping rocket recently. Macroeconomists could offer demand change, notably the depressive effect of a possible renewed pandemic. But those taking a longer view might point to the new order of trade policy, which involves more intimidation, discrimination and ultimately, isolation. In short, the very foundations of the multilateral trading system are under assault, from several directions at once.

对全球贸易而言，最大的威胁是什么？倍感压力的供应链经理会说是最近出现的物流瓶颈，它导致了全球航运成本飙升。宏观经济学家可能说是需求变化，尤其是可能再次爆发的疫情带来的抑制效应。但那些考虑长远的人可能会认为是贸易新秩序，它带来威胁、歧视以及最终的孤立。一言以蔽之，多边贸易系统的基层正在遭受多方位同时袭击。

Some of this reflects adaptation to changed political objectives, such as new concerns to respond to human-rights abuses or to climate change. A back-of-the-envelope calculation based on estimates by the OECD suggests that a carbon tariff based on a CO2 price of $75 a tonne may represent an average extra cost of only around 2%. That seems manageable. When the risk of shocks is rising, whether from natural disasters, pandemics or the willingness of foreigners to weaponise their economic clout, it makes sense to work up strategies for coping. That could mean diversification through trade deals, constructive co-ordination over standards, or sensible stockpiling.

有些反映了对已经改变的政治目标的适应。比如对人权滥用和气候变化的新关注。基于经合组织估算的粗略计算表明，以每吨75美元的二氧化碳价格为基础的碳关税可能只代表大约2%的平均额外成本，这看起来具有可控性。当冲击风险增加时，不论是自然灾害、疫情或者是外国人武装自己的经济势力，都让建立自己的对冲风险策略变得有意义。这些对冲风险策略可能意味着通过贸易协议实现多样化，在标准方面进行建设性的协调，或明智的储备。

But as well-intentioned governments try to co-ordinate new ways to add non-trade goals to commerce, the risk of mismanagement or the proliferation of special interests is high. Economic nationalism crafted behind trade barriers could coddle companies, impede technology transfer or limit the profits available for research and development. Subsidies could distort trade flows and generate tensions between allies as they fight over who should bear the cost of supply that is greater than demand. Over the long run, the extra anxiety around international supply chains could mean that national borders come to matter more in practice than they should do in theory.

但是，随着政府出于好意尝试协调新方式将非贸易目标添加到商业中(up:这个“好意的新方式”有可能是关于国际碳排放指标的购买），管理不善或特殊利益扩散的风险变得很高。贸易壁垒背后巧妙隐蔽的经济民族主义可能会纵容企业、阻碍技术转让或限制可用于研发的利润。补贴可能扭曲贸易流动，并在盟国之间引发紧张关系，因为它们会为谁应该承担高于需求的供应成本而争吵。从长远来看，围绕国际供应链的额外焦虑可能意味着国界在实践中比理论上更重要。

Push all this to its limits, and there is a risk that the forces of globalisation could even go into reverse. That supply chains now so often criss-cross international borders actually raises the cost of trade barriers. If the EU had cut off vaccine exports to Britain in early 2021 amid a heated row over scarce supplies, it might have jeopardized crucial inputs for its own production. But that could be changing. Reshoring supply chains may, ironically, increase the likelihood of new trade barriers in future as it makes them less costly. And that could raise the incentive to start unraveling today's close economic relationships.

把这一切推到极限，全球化的力量甚至有可能逆转。如今经常出现跨越国际边界的供应链危机实际上增加了贸易壁垒成本。如果欧盟在2021年初因疫苗供应不足而发生激烈争吵，切断对英国的疫苗出口，可能会危及欧盟自身生产的关键原料进口。但这种情况可能改变。具有讽刺意味的是，供应链回流可能会增加未来出现新贸易壁垒的可能性，因为它让新贸易壁垒出现的代价降低。这可能会促使人们开始瓦解目前密切的经济关系。