passage5

注解：标题为红色，翻译为蓝色，分析为绿色。

       Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing"or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen,a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.   

        Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

          It is also less than most forecasters had predicted.【第27题】 In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.【第29题】

             Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack.America's capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment——the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.【第28题】

           Why has inflation proved so mild? 【第30题】The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately,a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

一、文章结构分析

        这是一篇关于美国及其他发达国家经济形势的文章。这些国家都持续保持了较低的通货膨胀率，这一点出乎经济学家的预料。

        第一段：通过类比论证，说明货币政策对经济的影响难以预测。

         第二段至第四段：笔锋一转，指出尽管有诸多不利因素，各国的经济形势却令人满意，通货膨胀率低于经济学家的预测。该部分用了大量数据证明。

         第五段：分析该现象的原因，即经济增长和通货膨胀相联系的旧经济模式的结束。

27.From the passage we learn that.

[A]there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates

[B]economy will always follow certain models

[C]the economic situation is better than expected

[D]economists had foreseen the present economic situation

27.从文章中，我们可以得知。

［A］通货膨胀和利率之间有明确的联系

［B］经济总会遵循某种模式

［C］经济形势比预料的要好

［D］经济学家已经预见到了目前的经济状况

【

The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain 通货膨胀和利率之间具有不确定性。故A选项错误。

根据原文，经济学家根据经济学理论知识没有正确预测将来的经济形式。也就是经济不会总是遵循某种模式，并且最后一段，Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.现在的经济形式推翻了旧的经济模式的理论，也就意味着经济的模式是不断的演化，而不是总是遵循某种模式。故B选项错误。

第二段，central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late。中央行长对于经济形式觉得值得炫耀。故经济形势比预料的要好。C.选项正确。

经济学家预测经济情况会比较坏，但是实际是情况要比预测的好，故D.选项错误。

】

28. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?

[A]Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car.

[B]An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation.

[C]A high unemployment rate will result from inflation.

[D]Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy.

28.根据文章内容，下面哪项陈述正确？

［A］把制定货币政策比作开车。

［B］特别低的失业率会导致通货膨胀。

［C］通货膨胀会导致高失业率。

［D］利率直接而快速地影响经济。

【

对于A选项，把制定货币政策比作开车，而原文是the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen,a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel 货币政策的制定比作是驾驶一辆汽车，这辆车挡风玻璃被涂黑了、后视镜裂了，方向盘也失灵了。故A选项错误在了：没有对车作进一步的限定词。A选项错误。

对于B选项。its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment——the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.其失业率（8月份为5.6%）已低于大多数人对自然失业率的估计——过去失业率低于这个数字的时候，通货膨胀率早已开始上升。故特别低的失业率会导致通货膨胀。B选项正确。

对于C选项。原文说低失业率会导致通货膨胀，没有说通货膨胀会导致低失业率。C选项错误。

对于D选项。The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain 通货膨胀和利率之间具有不确定性。D选项错误。

】

29. The sentence "This is no flash in the pan"

(line 5, paragraph 3) means that.

[A] the low inflation rate will last for some time

[B] the inflation rate will soon rise

[C] the inflation will disappear quickly

[D] there is no inflation at present

29.“This is no flash in the pan”（3段5行）的意思是。

［A］低通货膨胀率会持续一段时间

［B］通货膨胀率很快会提高

［C］通货膨胀率很快会消失

［D］目前没有通货膨胀率

【

不是昙花一现。

This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

这不是昙花一现；在过去几年里，英国和美国的通货膨胀率始终低于预测水平。

也就是说低通货膨胀率会持续一段时间。故选A。A选项正确。

】

30.The passage shows that the author isthe present situation.

[A]critical of

[B]puzzled by

[C] disappointed at

[D] amazed at

30.文章表明作者对目前现状的态度是

［A］批评的

［B］迷惑不解的

［C］失望的

［D］惊奇的

【

作者对经济学家对经济情况的预测是坏的结果，而实际的经济形式是好的结果。作者对目前现状的态度应该是惊奇的。

特别是在第四段Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures，经济学家们表示的surprised，其实也是表明作者的惊奇。

故D选项正确。

】

二、核心词汇与超纲词汇

（1）analogy（n.）比拟，类比

（2）faulty（a.）有过失的，有缺点的，不完美的；fault：（n.）过失，过错；缺点

（3）forecast（v./n.）预测，预报

（4）inflation（n.）通货膨胀

（5）poll（n.）民意测验

（6）slack（a.）懈怠的，懒散的，松弛的，不紧的；萧条的；（n.）淡季，萧条；（pl.）便裤，运动裤

（7）steer（v.）驾驶，掌舵

（8）thrilling（a.）令人震惊的；thrill（n.）令人激动的事；（v.）使激动，使兴奋；使毛骨悚然

（9）up-end（v.）颠倒，倒放；推翻，打倒

（10）utilization/utilisation（n.）利用

三、阅读答案：C B A D

四、全文翻译：

       很多用来描述货币政策的词，如“引导经济软着陆”，“触动经济刹车”，使货币政策听起来像是一门精确的科学。事实远非如此。利率和通货膨胀之间的关系难以确定。在政策改变对经济产生影响之前，会有一段较长时间且变化不定的后滞期。因此，才会有人将货币政策的制定比作是驾驶一辆汽车，这辆车挡风玻璃被涂黑了、后视镜裂了，方向盘也失灵了。

       尽管有这么多不利因素，中央银行家们似乎对近来之形势有了不少值得夸耀的东西。西方七大工业国去年的平均通货膨胀降至仅2.3%，接近三十年来的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5%。这远远低于许多国家在70年代和80年代早期经历的两位数的膨胀率。

       这也低于许多预测者预测的数字。1994年底，每月接受《经济学家》意见调查的一组经济学家指出，美国在1995年的平均通货膨胀率将达到3.5%。实际上，8月份就降到了2.6%，而且有望全年仅为3%。去年年底，英国和日本的通货膨胀率实际上比预测的要低半个百分点。这不是昙花一现；在过去几年里，英国和美国的通货膨胀率始终低于预测水平。

        经济学家对英美两国有利的通胀率特别感到诧异，因为传统的计量方法表明两国经济，特别是美国经济几乎没有出现生产萧条。比如，美国的生产力利用率在今年早些时候达到了历史最高水平，失业率（八月份为5.6%）已降到低于很多人对自然失业率的估测——过去，当比率低于自然失业率时，通货膨胀率早已迅速上升。

        为何通货膨胀如此和缓？可惜的是，即使是最令人兴奋的解释也会有小的缺陷。一些经济学家认为，世界经济结构强有力的变化已经推翻了以往那种以经济增长和通货膨胀率的历史关联为基础的旧有的经济模式。

五、地毯式总结

monetary policy 货币政策

steering the economy to a soft landing 引导经济实现软着陆

a touch on the brakes 触动经济刹车

make it sound like a precise science 让它听起来像一门精确的科学

Nothing could be further from the truth 没有什么比这更离谱的了

variable lag 可变滞后

policy change 政策变动

Hence 因此

the analogy 类比

liken 把…比作

driving a car with a blackened windscreen,a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel 驾驶挡风玻璃变黑、后视镜破裂、方向盘有故障的汽车

Given all these disadvantages 考虑到所有这些缺点

central banker 央行行长

seem to have had much to boast about of late 最近似乎有很多值得夸耀的地方

Average inflation 平均通货膨胀率

rising slightly to 2.5% 略有上升至2.5%

It is also less than most forecasters had predicted 这也低于大多数预测者的预测

the panel of economist 经济学家小组

The Economist polls 《经济学人》民意调查

This is no flash in the pan 这不是昙花一现

over the past couple of years 在过去的几年里

favourable inflation figures 有利的通货膨胀数字

conventional measure 常规措施

productive slack 生产萧条,生产不景气

capacity utilisation 产能利用率

its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment——the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.

其失业率（8月份为5.6%）已低于大多数人对自然失业率的估计——过去失业率低于这个数字的时候，通货膨胀率早已开始上升。

thrilling explanation 激动人心的解释

a little defective 有点缺陷

structural change 结构变化

up-end 颠倒,推翻

economic models 经济模型

historical link between growth and inflation 经济增长与通货膨胀之间的历史联系