The new rules  --- A changed world

International commerce needs firmer underpinnings

Questions that need answering

If global leaders are to prove the trade pessimists wrong, they need to offer clearer answers to three big questions. First, where are the limits to what trade tools can achieve? Sometimes there is a tendency "to overload the boat a bit", comments Mr Dombrovskis, the EU's trade commissioner, warning of the need for a balance between the idea of setting new tests for trade deals and the feasibility of passing them. Some humility when it comes to unilateralism may be in order. If countries trying to export their standards or to exert their power are only a slice of suppliers' markets, they may do little to produce change in rich countries while disrupting business in poor ones.

 若全球领导人要证实贸易悲观主义者的观点错误，则他们需要对三个大问题进行清晰的回答。首先，贸易工具的作用上限在哪里？欧盟贸易专员 Dombrovskis先生表示有时候人们有“让船超载一些”的趋势。他警告道需要在贸易协定制定新的测试和测试通过的可行性之间平衡。谦虚对于单边主义来说恰如其分。如果国家想要对一小部分供应商市场输出自己的标准或者施加影响，他可能对富裕国家没有什么影响，但会扰乱穷国的贸易。

humility  n. /hjuˈmɪləti/谦逊；谦虚 • Her first defeat was an early lesson in humility. 她的第一次失败使她很早便懂得了谦逊。

unilateralism  n. /ˌjunɪˈlætrəlɪzəm/ 单边主义（信仰和支持单方面行动，尤指单方面销毁核武器的政策）

Second, what happens when the increasingly complex stew of non-trade objectives has internal contradictions? Those eager for greater resilience or most worried about human-rights abuses may argue for trade barriers against solar-panel imports, to shift sourcing from China. But that could conflict with short-run efforts to fight climate change with cheap renewable energy. Bernard Hoekman, an academic at the European University Institute, who is leading a project on the effects of EU trade policy on non-trade policy goals, warns of misdirected resources, away from aid that goes directly towards improved economic governance or telecoms and logistics links.

其次，当日益复杂的非贸易目标混在一起产生内部矛盾时，会发生什么? 那些渴望更强韧性或最担心侵犯人权的人可能会主张对太阳能电池板进口设置贸易壁垒，以转移来自中国的进口源。但这可能与利用廉价可再生能源应对气候变化的短期努力相冲突。欧洲大学研究所(European University Institute)学者伯纳德•霍克曼(Bernard Hoekman)警告称，资源可能被误导，从而偏离直接用于改善经济治理或电信和物流连接。霍克曼正在主导一个研究欧盟贸易政策对非贸易政策目标的影响的项目。

  stew /stjuː/  名词：炖的菜，煨的菜（有肉和蔬菜）•beef stew and dumplings 牛肉炖丸子；get (yourself)/be in a ˈstew (about/over sth)（为某事）坐立不安，心烦意乱

动词：1. 炖；煨•stewed apples 炖苹果；2. [ Vusually + adv./prep. ]思考；担忧•I've been stewing over the problem for a while. 这个问题我已经考虑了一会儿。3. let sb stew in their own ˈjuice 让某人自作自受

Third, how should the consequences of new trade barriers be managed and contained? That job was for some years done by the WTO, which allowed limited retaliation if governments were in breach of their obligations. In its absence, governments should know that protection has consequences, if only in the form of possible retaliation. Since 2o16, there is evidence of a rise in the share of global trade that is subject to trade restrictions, even excluding those related to the US-China trade war.

第三，如何管理及控制新贸易壁垒带来的后果？这个工作多年以来由世贸组织负责。对于违反义务的政府，它允许有限的报复。在世贸组织缺席期间，政府应该知道贸易保护带来的后果，即使只是可能的报复。自2016年以来，有证据表明全球贸易中受贸易限制的占比提高，这甚至未包括中美贸易战相关贸易。

retaliation n. /rɪˌtæliˈeɪʃn/  ~ (against sb/sth) (for sth)  报复 • retaliation against UN workers 对联合国工作人员的报复

If and when answers to these three questions emerge, the trading system that they suggest may be quite like the one that is now slowly being dismantled. It ought to include mutually agreed rules overseen by independent arbiters, to deliver legitimacy and stability. It must allow clearly defined exceptions, to prevent abuse and allow adaptation. It needs to respect the use of trade tools to help deliver geopolitical, security, environmental and human-rights goals. But it should also recognize the risks of asking trade to do too much. And it would, logically, point to revitalizing and reinforcing the WTO, rather than undermining it further, as several members are continuing to do.

如果这三个问题有了答案，那么他们提出的贸易体系可能与目前正在慢慢瓦解的体系非常相似。它应该包括共同同意的、由独立仲裁机构监督的规则，以提供合法性和稳定性。它必须有明确定义的免责条款，以防止规则滥用和准许适应性变化。它需要尊重贸易工具的使用，以帮助实现地缘政治、安全、环境和人权目标。但它也应该意识到要求贸易做得太多的风险。而且，从逻辑上讲，它将指向世贸组织的振兴和加强，而不是像几个成员国正在继续做的那样进一步削弱它。

dismantle v. /dɪsˈmæntl/  

1.拆开，拆卸（机器或结构）•I had to dismantle the engine in order to repair it. 我得把发动机拆开来修理。

2.（逐渐）废除，取消 •The government was in the process of dismantling the state-owned industries. 政府正在着手逐步废除国有企业。  

arbiter  n. /ˈɑːbɪtə(r)/~ (of sth)  仲裁人；公断人；裁决人；决定者；权威人士 • The law is the final arbiter of what is considered obscene. 何谓猥亵最终由法律裁决。• an arbiter of taste/style/fashion 鉴赏╱款式╱时装权威

英文原文《经济学人10月刊》

译文：青石空明，仅供参考交流，如有错误，请指出。