巴菲特投资哲学

stocks sell at silly prices from time to time it doesn't take a high IQ to figure

股票有时会以愚蠢的价格出售，不需要高智商就能

out that they're cheap but it does take a temperament that's willing to step up

看出它们很便宜，但确实需要一种愿意站出来

and actually act that day as I'm sure you are all aware is Mr Warren Buffett

并在那天实际行动的气质，我相信你们都知道 沃伦巴菲特先生

the 92 year old Oracle of Omaha he is the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway one of the

是 92 岁的奥马哈先知，他是

largest companies in the world and the reason most people know his name is

世界上最大的公司之一伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的首席执行官，大多数人知道他的名字的原因是

because he is the world's best investor every year he releases a letter to his

因为他是世界上最好的投资者，他每年都会向他的公司发表一封信

shareholders where he details the returns of Berkshire Hathaway stock

since he took the reins back in 1965 and get this from then to now he's averaged

自从他于 1965 年重新掌权以来，他详细介绍了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票的回报率，从那时到现在，他的

20.1 per year while the S P 500 or the market has only averaged ten and a half

平均年回报率为 20.1，而标准普尔 500 指数或市场的

percent berkshire's Total return over that time is 3.6 million percent versus

平均回报率仅为伯克希尔哈撒韦公司总回报率的 10.5%时间是 360 万百分比，而

thirty thousand percent of the s p 500. so in this video we're going to take the

标准普尔 500 指数是百分之三万。所以在这段视频中，我们将花

time to hear some of Warren Buffett's advice that specifically applies to the

时间听听沃伦巴菲特的一些建议，这些建议特别适用于

the investing scenario that we all face coming into 2023. so what is that

我们都喜欢的投资场景 ce进入 2023 年。

situation well firstly the market is falling it felt 20 in 2022 we also have

首先，市场正在下跌，感觉 2022 年 20 年，我们也有

very high inflation although thankfully that does seem to be trending down at

非常高的通货膨胀率，尽管值得庆幸的是，至少目前看来确实呈下降趋势

least currently and then finally we have Rising interest rates which are likely

，然后最终我们的利率可能会上升

going to continue in 2023 based on the FED reaffirming they want to get that

将在 2023 年继续，基于美联储重申他们希望将

inflation rate back down to two percent and they won't stop raising rates until

通货膨胀率回落至 2%，并且他们不会停止加息，直到

they get there so Chuck that all together with the possibility of a

他们到达那里，所以查克，以及全年出现

decent sized recession throughout the year and well for investors there's a

相当规模的经济衰退的可能性好吧，对于投资者来说，有

lot to think about so let's start at the start the first conundrum what do we do

很多事情要考虑，所以让我们从头开始第一个难题当股市稳步下跌时，

as rational long-term value investors when the stock market is pretty solidly

作为理性的长期价值投资者我们该怎么做

trending down let's talk a little bit about the fact that the Market's down

让我们谈谈市场的事实

almost 800 points this morning yeah concern for you well no that's good for

今天早上下跌了近 800 点是的，你很担心，不，这对我们有好处，

us actually I mean we're a net buyer of stocks over time and uh just like being

实际上我的意思是随着时间的推移我们是股票的净买家，呃就像

in that buyer of food I expect to buy food the rest of my life and I hope that

在那个 bu 你的食物我希望在我的余生中购买食物，我希望

food goes down at price tomorrow when stocks are down we're going to be buying

明天当股票下跌时食物价格下跌我们将

on balance and who wouldn't rather buy it you know a lower price at a higher

平衡购买并且谁不愿意购买它你知道更低的价格 更高的

price people are really strange on that I mean they uh because most people most

价格人们真的很奇怪我的意思是他们呃因为大多数人

most your listeners are Savers and that means they'll beat up buyers and they

大多数你的听众都是储蓄者这意味着他们会击败买家并且他们

should want the stock market to go down they should want to buy at a lower price

应该希望股市下跌他们应该希望以较低的价格购买

and they have that feeling that they just feel better when stocks are going

他们有一种感觉，当股票上涨时，他们会感觉更好

up Buffett's rational thinking really shines through in this clip if you're a

如果你是一个

long-term investor trying to build wealth and you're under the age of about

试图积累财富的长期投资者，而且你还不到 55 岁，

you know 55 you actually want the stock market to go down reason being is you

那么巴菲特的理性思维在这个片段中真正闪耀 实际上希望股市下跌的原因是你

should still be a net buyer of stocks you know if you're 70 or if you're 80

仍然应该是股票的净买家，你知道如果你是 70 岁或 80 岁

then you definitely want the stock market to stay really high because on

那么你肯定希望股市保持在高位，因为

the flip side chances are you're in the stage of your life where you're a net

另一方面机会 你在你的阶段吗 生活中你是股票的净

seller of stocks and I like that Buffett touches on the fact that most people's

卖家，我喜欢巴菲特谈到这样一个事实，即大多数人

reaction to a falling Market is really emotional people just feel better buying

对下跌市场的反应是非常情绪化的，人们

stocks when the market is going up but in reality you should actually actually

在市场上涨时买入股票感觉更好，但实际上你应该真正

feel better buying at times like right now when the stock market is down so

感受到 最好在股票市场下跌如此

much and this goes back to a very famous investing quote which says the stock

之多的时候购买，这可以追溯到一个非常著名的投资名言，该名言说

market is the only place people run out of the store during a sale think about

股票市场是人们在销售期间跑出商店的唯一地方

that when it's Black Friday we're always buying but how come we get scared when

想想黑色星期五 我们一直在买入，但是当黑色星期五发生在长期投资者的股票市场时，我们怎么会感到害怕

Black Friday happens in the stock market for long-term investors we should

我们

actually get excited by the stock market falling have a listen to these two clips

实际上应该对股市下跌感到兴奋听听这两个片段，

some people should note on sites at all because they just get too upset with

有些人应该在网站上注意，因为

price fluctuations if you're going to do dumb things because your stock a stock

如果你打算做愚蠢的事情，他们就会对价格波动感到非常不安，因为你的股票股价

goes down you shouldn't own a stock at all what I've done things selling a

下跌你根本不应该拥有股票我所做的事情卖

stuff selling stock else it goes down I mean if you buy your house at twenty

东西卖如果你以两万美元的价格买下你的房子，

thousand dollars and somebody comes along next day and says I'll pay you 15

第二天有人来告诉你我付给你 15 美元，

you don't sell it because the course is 15. but some people are not actually

你就不要卖掉它，因为课程是15 美元。但有些人实际上并没有

emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks but I think there are more of

情绪化 或者在心理上适合拥有股票，但

them would be if you get educated now on what you're really buying which is part

我认为如果你现在接受教育了解你真正购买的是企业的一部分

of a business if you worry about corrections you shouldn't own stocks I

，那么如果你担心修正你不应该拥有股票我的

mean if you can't take your stock going now it's going to go down sometime if

意思是如果你可以 现在就拿走你的股票如果

you own a stock so why worry about it I mean the point is to buy something that

你持有一只股票，它会在某个时候下跌所以为什么要担心它我的意思是要以

you like at a price you like and then hold it for 20 years and you should not

你喜欢的价格购买你喜欢的东西然后持有它 20 年，你不应该

look at it day to day if you bought a farm or apartment hush you wouldn't get

如果你买了一个农场或公寓，每天看看它，你不会

a quote on it every day or every week or every month so it's a terrible mistake

每天、每周或每个月都得到报价，所以

to think of stocks as something that bob up and down into you should pay

把股票看作是你应该上下波动的东西是一个可怕的错误

attention to Wells Bobs up and down so in summary own great businesses and

上下关注Wells Bobs所以总结自己的gr 吃掉生意，

remember that market Corrections are a normal part of investing and they should

记住市场调整是投资的正常部分，它们

actually make you happy not scared so that's investing during a bear Market

实际上应该让你开心而不是害怕，所以这是在熊市期间投资，

but what about all this inflation we're seeing prices of materials are rising a

但我们看到的所有这些通货膨胀呢材料价格目前正在上涨

lot at the moment making everything more expensive for both us consumers and also

很多对我们消费者和企业来说，一切都变得更加昂贵，

for businesses so what do we need to consider during a period where prices

那么在物价全面上涨的时期，我们需要考虑什么？

across the board are inflating Keane said it many years ago that it's an

invisible tax that only one man and a million really understands the best

investment against inflation is to improve your own earning power the best

对抗通货膨胀的投资是为了提高你自己的盈利能力，

passive investment I think is is a good business if you own an interest in a

我认为最好的被动投资是一个好企业，如果你对一个好的企业有兴趣，

good business uh you're very likely to maintain purchasing power no matter what

呃，无论

happens to the currency but it's interesting in the United States the

货币发生什么变化，你都很可能保持购买力，但这很有趣 在美国，

value of the dollar since I was born is declined by 94 percent to six cents but

自从我出生以来，美元的价值下降了 94% 至 6 美分，但

things can work out pretty well even during inflationary times I mean if

一切都还算顺利在通货膨胀时期，我的意思是如果

somebody told me when I was born you know the dollar bill is going to go to

有人告诉我我出生时你知道美元钞票会涨到

six cents I might have said you know let me go back I'm not I'm not interested in

六美分我可能会说你知道让我回去我不是我对

emerging into that kind of a world but actually it's worked out pretty well so

出现那种情况不感兴趣 一个世界，但实际上它运作得很好所以

I have no complaints so that advice is really interesting there are a few

我没有抱怨所以建议真的很有趣有一些

Concepts to unpack there firstly the best thing you can do during High

概念首先要打开包装在高通货膨胀期间你可以做的最好

inflation is to actually improve your own earning power okay make yourself

的事情就是提高你自己的收入能力好吧让自己

more valuable to your employer or potential future employers so that your

对你的雇主或潜在的未来雇主更有价值，这样你的

income can actually rise alongside the inflation that you'll feel but beyond

收入实际上可以随着你感受到的通货膨胀而上升，但除此之外

that Buffett says the best passive strategy you can Implement to nullify

，巴菲特说，你可以实施的消除

inflation is to find a really high quality business and stay invested in it

通货膨胀的最佳被动策略是找到一个真正高质量的企业并保持投资 在其中

and Buffett wrote down exactly what he meant by this back in his 1981

，巴菲特在 1981 年的股东信中准确地写下了他的意思，

shareholder letter he said that the best businesses to own to combat inflation

他说，最好的企业拥有抗击通货膨胀

have firstly an ability to increase prices rather easily even when product

的能力，首先有能力即使在产品

demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilized without fear of significant

需求持平且产能未得到充分利用的情况下

loss of either market share or unit volume and then two he said they need to

，也很容易压低价格，而不用担心市场份额或单位数量的重大损失，然后他说他们需要

have an ability to accommodate large dollar volume increases in business

有能力适应业务的大量美元数量增长，

often produced more by inflation than by real growth with only minor additional

通常生产更多 通货膨胀而不是实际增长，只需要少量额外

investment of capital so to explain the second Point first Buffett is simply

的资本投资所以解释第二点第一点巴菲特只是

saying that businesses will fare better during inflation if they are scalable

说，如果企业具有可扩展性，他们在通货膨胀期间会表现得更好，也就是

AKA they can accommodate a much higher dollar volume of business without

他们可以容纳更高的美元业务量而

needing to sink a lot of money into the company to increase that capacity think

无需下沉 大量资金投入公司以增加产能

for example a social media company versus a car company you know it costs

，例如，一家社交媒体公司与一家汽车公司相比，你

Facebook next to nothing really to show you three ads instead of two but for

知道 Facebook 向你展示三个广告而不是两个广告的成本几乎为零，但

Ford or for Tesla to increase their output by 50 percent well that would

福特或特斯拉将其产量提高了 50% 的油井会

cost a lot in capex and it will take a lot of time to spin up so that's the

在资本支出上花费很多，而且需要很多时间才能启动，所以这是

second point but it's Buffett's first point that is really critical when it

第二点 但巴菲特的第一点

comes to investing during inflation and that is that the business needs to have

在通货膨胀期间投资时真正关键，那就是企业需要

an ability to increase prices with without losing market share or unit

有能力在不损失市场份额或单位

volume and this simply means that the company has a competitive advantage or a

销量的情况下提高价格，这仅仅意味着公司具有竞争优势或

moat that gives them pricing power when you go into a drugstore 7-Eleven or

当你走进一家 7-11 便利店之类的药店时，一条护城河赋予他们定价权

something and you say I would like a Snickers bar and the owner says oh I've

，你说我想要一个士力架酒吧，店主说哦，我

got something the mosque bar at at 10 cents off the Snickers bar you say give

有一些清真寺酒吧的东西，比你说的士力架酒吧便宜 10 美分 给

me the stickers and if he doesn't give you the Snickers you go across the

我贴纸，如果他不给你士力架，你就去

street and buy the stickers it's probably easier to develop a new car

街对面买贴纸，开发一辆

this compete with stickers but some products have terrific models in them

与贴纸竞争的新车可能更容易，但有些产品有很棒的模型，

probably Elmer's Glue does you know WD-40 people that have an iPhone they

可能是 Elmer's Glue 你知道WD  -40 位拥有 iPhone 的人，他们

want to continue with the product that they've got they want they want the new

希望继续使用他们所拥有的产品，他们想要新

version it's just easier for them they've learned how to do everything and

版本，这对他们来说更容易，他们已经学会了如何做所有事情，

their life's built around it and all of that and mulch are very useful Costco

并且 他们的生活围绕着它而建，所有这些和覆盖物都非常有用 Costco

has a mold in people's mind I mean Amazon can raise the price of prime you

在人们的脑海中有一个模型，我的意思是亚马逊可以提高 prime 的价格，你

know 20 and you can't do that unless you've built something within that image

知道 20，除非你在那个图像中构建了一些东西，否则你不能这样做

of the Amazon on Prime that's based on reality that you're going to get a lot

Amazon on Prime 是基于这样的现实：你会

for your money and you're going to want to use it and then you can raise prices

物有所值，你会想要使用它，然后你可以将价格提高

twenty dollars but if you're selling you know if you're selling some commodity

20 美元，但如果你要卖，你就知道你是否 销售一些商品

problem a product you can't do that you need a mode so there are many different

问题 一种你不能做的产品，你需要一种模式，所以有许多不同

types of modes out there for example a patent could give a company a moat

类型的模式，例如，专利可以在

anytime you have to pay a toll that toll collecting company has a moat as Buffett

你必须支付通行费时给公司提供护城河，而收费公司有护城河 正如巴菲特

said powerful Brands like Coca-Cola or apple or Louis Vuitton they all have

所说，强大的品牌，如可口可乐、苹果或路易威登，他们都有

moats Costco's built a motor around always having the best prices there are

护城河 Costco 建立了一个始终拥有最优惠价格的汽车

a lot of different ways companies can form a competitive advantage and if it

公司有很多不同的方式可以形成竞争优势，如果它

gives them the ability to dictate prices AKA pricing power then they're the best

赋予他们发号施令的能力 价格又名 定价权那么他们是

bets to come out on top during an inflationary period as inflation raises

在通货膨胀时期脱颖而出的最佳选择，因为通货膨胀会增加

their costs and lowers their profits they can simply raise the prices of

他们的成本并降低他们的利润他们可以简单地提高

their end products and their moats should protect them from suffering a

最终产品的价格，他们的护城河应该保护他们免受

drop in sales in fact last year as Coca-Cola raised their prices their

销售下降 事实上，去年可口可乐提高了价格，他们的

sales actually went up so there's some good proof for you so that's how to

销售额实际上上升了，所以有一些很好的证据给你，这就是如何

handle the inflation side of investing in 2023 but finally we also need to talk

应对 2023 年投资的通货膨胀方面，但最后我们还需要

about the third Big Challenge of investing this year interest rates what

谈谈今年投资的第三大挑战利率

can we do when interest rates just keep Rising interest rates

当利率持续上升时我们能做什么利率上升

you know basically are to uh the value of assets what gravity is to matter you

你知道基本上是资产的价值你知道引力的重要性

know essentially and if if I could reduce gravity it's pulled by about 80

，如果我能降低引力，它会被拉动大约 80

percent I mean I'd be in the Tokyo Olympics jumping that's really the way

% 我的意思是我会 参加东京奥运会，这真的是

to view interest rates like gravity to the stock market when interest rates are

看待利率的方式，就像在利率非常低的时候股市对股市的引力一样，

very low it makes money cheap and easy to access for both consumers and

它让钱变得便宜而且容易获得 r 消费者和

businesses and this means more spending more profits and more growth and that's

企业，这意味着更多的支出，更多的利润和更多的增长，这

what we've had basically over the past 10 years or so but now on the flip side

基本上是我们在过去10 年左右的时间里所拥有的，但现在另一方面，

we're starting to see Rising interest rates this means of course borrowed

我们开始看到利率上升，这当然意味着借来的

money is more expensive to access so business debts become harder to pay off

获得资金的成本更高，因此企业债务变得更难偿还，

and consumers generally have a lot less to spend so this is a tough environment

而消费者的支出通常要少得多，因此这

for businesses to operate and thrive in and often shows in their financial

对企业经营和繁荣来说是一个艰难的环境，而且往往会反映在他们的财务

results which then affect their stock prices have a look at this graphic of

业绩中，进而影响他们的股价 看看这张

the past five years as you can see interest rates went up in 28 18 and the

过去五年的图表，你可以看到利率在 28 18 年上升，而

stock market didn't do much at all in 2019 rates started coming down and the

股市在 2019 年根本没有做太多，利率开始下降，

market went up and then when covert struck the FED lowered the interest rate

市场上升，然后当美联储秘密行动时 将利率

to zero and the market basically boomed for two years however in 2022 interest

降至零，市场基本上繁荣了两年，但在 2022 年，

rates went up a lot and the market dropped by 20 so when rates go up stocks

利率大幅上涨，市场下跌了 20，所以当利率上升时，股票

generally suffer and this is half caused by businesses performing poorly and

普遍受到影响，这是 一半是由企业表现不佳

their stock value falling but the other factor to consider with interest rates

和股票价值下跌引起的，但另一个要考虑

is of course government bonds so U.S treasury bills or treasury bonds are

利率的因素当然是政府债券，所以美国国库券或国债

generally considered the risk-free returns so you give the US Treasury a

通常被认为是无风险回报，所以你给美国财政部

loan and then they'll pay you back at some point in the future plus interest

贷款，然后 他们会在未来的某个时候还给你加上利息，

so when interest rates are low the government honestly they give you bugger

所以当利率很低时，政府老实说他们会给你

all interest but when interest rates rise if you buy the new bonds that

所有的利息，但是当利率上升时，如果你购买他们发行的新债券，这些债券

they're issuing well those ones will give you a higher interest payment now

会给你 你现在支付更高的利息，

this is all very boring to us but it is very interesting to the 80 of the market

这对我们来说都很无聊，但对于市场上的 80 个人来说，这很有趣，

who are just Institution money managers trying to get a good return for their

他们只是机构资金经理，试图以尽可能低的风险为客户获得良好的回报，

clients with as little risk as possible so what you find is that when rates rise

所以你发现的是 当利率上升时

a lot of professional money flows out of the risky stock market and back into the

，大量专业资金从高风险的股票市场流出，回到

safety of treasury bills and that's selling out of the stock market by the

安全的国库券中，这就是 bi 抛售股票市场

big players causes stock prices to fall this is Buffett talking about exactly

g 玩家导致股价下跌这是巴菲特

this idea in 1982 or three when the long government got to 15 a company that was

在 1982 年或三年时谈论的正是这个想法，当时长期政府达到 15 一家公司的

earning 15 on Equity was no more than Book value under those circumstances

股票收益为 15在这种情况下不超过账面价值，

because you could buy a 30-year strip of bonds and guarantee yourself for 15 a

因为你可以购买 30- 一年的债券，并为自己提供 15

year and a business that earned 12 percent was a subpar business then but a

年的担保，当时一家盈利 12% 的企业是一家低于标准的

business that earns 12 percent when the Government Bond is three percent is one

企业，但当政府债券为 3% 时，一家盈利 12%

hell of a business now and that's why they solve a very fancy prices so if a

的企业现在是一家地狱般的企业，这就是为什么他们解决了一个 非常花哨的价格，所以如果一家

business is giving you 10 Returns per year that's pretty good but the closer

企业每年给你 10 的回报，那是相当不错的，但

that risk-free rate gets to 10 the more professional money will sell the

无风险利率越接近 10，就越有专业的资金会出售该

business and just buy the Government Bond causing the businesses stock price

企业并购买政府债券，导致企业

price to fall so what do we take away from all this well it's again that we

股价下跌 那么，我们从这一切中得到了什么？再次是，我们

need to be laser focused on our selected businesses performance and we need to

需要高度关注我们选定的业务绩效，我们需要

stay focused on the long term because history tells us stocks are generally a

保持长期关注，因为历史告诉我们

better place to be than bonds over a very long period of time that's just the

在很长一段时间内，美国股票通常比债券更好，这只是

reality but for short periods of time well occasionally they're not so we as

现实，但在短时间内，偶尔情况并非如此，所以我们作为

stock market investors need to stay focused on the long term so that we can

股市投资者需要专注于长期，所以 我们可以

use the depressed stock prices on high quality businesses as opportunities for

利用高质量企业的低迷股价作为获得

long-term returns we need to acknowledge that we can't do anything about the

长期回报的

Federal Reserve they'll do whatever so instead let's just play the long game

and pick up great businesses at great prices while interest rates are really

机会 伟大的企业以优惠的价格，而利率确实

high that's how we tackle a high interest rate environment and overall

很高，这就是我们应对高利率环境的方式，

guys that is Warren Buffett's wisdom around tackling the three big investing

这是沃伦巴菲特解决

issues that we are all going to face in 2023 stock market correction High

我们在 2023 年股市调整中都将面临的三大投资问题的智慧高

inflation and Rising interest rates but really hope you got something useful out

通胀和 利率上升，但真的希望你能从这个视频中得到一些有用的东西

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