每天一篇经济学人 | Elections in America 美国的选举...

In pennsylvania, a celebrity cardiologist who rages against the inflated price of crudités faces a tattooed lieutenant governor with heart trouble. In Georgia, the choice is between a pastor on one side and a former star of “Celebrity Apprentice” and “Celebrity Cook-Off” on the other. In November the results of these contests, and a few others like them, will determine control of the us Senate for the next two years. On this hinges the ability of the White House to staff its administration, to confirm judicial nominations and to pursue legislation.

在宾夕法尼亚州，一位对生菜沙拉价格过高而愤怒的著名心脏病专家对上的是一位有纹身且患有心脏病的副州长。在佐治亚州，一方选择是牧师，另一方是《名人学徒》和《名人厨艺大赛》的前明星。11月，这些选举的结果，以及其他一些类似的选举，将决定未来两年美国参议院的控制权。这取决于白宫是否有能力为其行政部门配备人员，是否有能力确认司法人员的提名，以及是否有能力推动立法。

Because so much is riding on this election, The Economist has built a statistical model to try to predict what will happen. Our past forecasts—of France’s presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, America’s midterms of 2018 and its presidential election of 2020—all favoured the eventual victor months in advance. Of course, a probabilistic forecast that correctly puts a 70% chance on something happening will look wrong 30% of the time.

因为这次选举事关重大，《经济学人》建立了一个统计模型，试图预测将会发生什么。我我们过去对法国2017年和2022年总统选举、美国2018年中期选举和2020年总统选举的预测都提前几个月倾向于预测出最终的胜利者。当然，一个有70%的可能性预测正确的概率预测问题，仍有30%的情况下是错误的。

Our 2022 midterm model has two main findings. First, though Republicans are favoured to win the House, it won’t be a blowout. We currently think the likeliest outcome is that they win 224 seats. Second, we think Democrats are favoured to hold on to the Senate. The likeliest outcome there is that they end up with 51 seats.

我们的2022年中期模型有两个主要发现。首先，尽管共和党有望赢得众议院，但这不会是一场大胜。我们目前认为最有可能的结果是他们赢得224个席位。其次，我们认为民主党人更倾向于保住参议院。最有可能的结果是他们最终获得51个席位。

These predictions are surprising because 2022 ought to be a bumper year for Republicans. The party that holds the White House normally gets thwacked in the midterms—a pattern that stretches back 80 years. The only recent exceptions are the midterms after Republicans started impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton and those following September 11th 2001. Furthermore, President Joe Biden is about as popular as an eggwhite omelette at a barbecue contest. His approval rating matches Donald Trump’s at this point in his presidency. Inflation is high, and near the top of Americans’ concerns. Voters perceive the Democratic Party to be just as extreme as the Republican Party (and some Democrats are determined to prove them right).

这些预测令人惊讶，因为2022年对共和党人来说应该是丰收年。执掌白宫的政党通常会在中期选举中受到打击，这种模式可以追溯到80年前。最近唯一的例外是共和党启动弹劾比尔·克林顿的中期选举，以及2001年9月11日之后的中期选举。此外，乔·拜登总统就像烧烤比赛上的蛋清煎蛋一样受欢迎。他的支持率与唐纳德·特朗普在总统任期的这个阶段相当。通货膨胀率很高，这几乎是美国人最关心的问题。选民们认为民主党和共和党一样极端(一些民主党人决心证明他们是对的)。

Against this backdrop, narrowly winning the House and remaining the minority in the Senate would be a rotten result for Republicans. Pinpointing the cause of this likely underperformance is not a science: inflation has fallen a little, petrol prices are coming down and Democrats, having given up fantasies of another New Deal, have passed some smaller but meaningful pieces of legislation. But two things stand out.

在这样的背景下，对共和党来说，以微弱优势赢得众议院并在参议院保持少数席位将是一个糟糕的结果。找出这种可能表现不佳的原因不是一门科学：通货膨胀有所下降，汽油价格也在下降，民主党人放弃了另一项新政的幻想，通过了一些规模较小但意义重大的立法。但有两件事很突出。

The first is that Republican states have pursued extreme positions on abortion that alarm many voters. A majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in the first trimester and restricted thereafter. Several Republican states have banned abortion entirely since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade this year. Previously, anti-abortion purists had little grip on public policy. Now, in some states, they control it. As a result, a ten-year-old rape victim had to travel out of Ohio for an abortion, and there has been a surge of women registering to vote. Back in June, before the Supreme Court’s bombshell, our model favoured Republicans to win a majority in the Senate. Their chances of doing so have since declined by 30 points.

首先，共和党支持的州在堕胎问题上采取了极端立场，这让许多选民感到不安。大多数美国人认为在妊娠头三个月堕胎应该是合法的，三个月之后则应该限制堕胎。自今年最高法院推翻罗伊诉韦德案以来，几个共和党州已经完全禁止堕胎。以前，反堕胎纯粹主义者对公共政策几乎没有控制力。现在，在一些州，他们控制着它。因此，一名10岁的强奸受害者不得不去俄亥俄州以外的地方堕胎，而且登记投票的女性人数激增。早在今年6月，在最高法院宣布惊人消息之前，我们的模型就倾向于共和党赢得参议院的多数席位。自那以后，他们赢得多数席位的可能性下降了30个百分点。

The second is Mr Trump’s enduring hold over the Republican Party. Trumpy candidates triumphed in the primaries. As a result, the former president has saddled the party with some odd people who hold even odder views in winnable Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr Trump, in addition to his other flaws, is a proven vote-loser—as the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential election demonstrated. The sooner the Republican Party recognises this the better, both for its own electoral prospects and for America’s democracy.

第二点是特朗普对共和党的持久控制。特朗普的候选人在初选中获胜。结果，这位前总统在亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州的参议院选举中，让一些古怪的人担负起党内重任，这些人的观点甚至更加古怪。特朗普，除了他的其他缺点之外，已经被证明是选票失败者，2018年中期选举和2020年总统选举就证明了这一点。共和党越早认识到这一点越好，这对他们自己的选举前景和美国的民主都是如此。