The Review of Economic Studies2022年第6期
——更多期刊动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
1．The Dynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wage Assimilation
回返移民、人力资本积累和工资同化的动态
Jérôme Adda, Christian Dustmann, Joseph-Simon Görlach
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2841–2871, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac003
This article develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants’ careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel form of selective return migration where those who plan to stay longer invest more into skill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment of immigrants’ career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Our study also explains the willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages that seem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model provides important insight for the design of migration policies, showing that policies that initially restrict residence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants’ career profiles through their impact on human capital investment but also determine the selection of arrivals and leavers.
本文开发并估计了一个动态模型，其中个人的能力和地点偏好不同，以评估影响移民职业演变的机制以及他们的再移民计划。我们的分析强调了一种新颖的选择性回返移民形式，即那些计划停留更长时间的人更多地投资于技能获取，这对评估移民的职业道路和估计他们的收入状况具有重要意义。我们的研究还解释了移民愿意接受当地人似乎无法接受的工资工作的意愿。最后，我们的模型为移民政策的设计提供了重要的见解，表明最初限制居住或以成就为条件居住的政策不仅通过对人力资本投资的影响来塑造移民的职业概况，而且还决定了抵达和离开者的选择。
2．The Impact of Car Pollution on Infant and Child Health: Evidence from Emissions Cheating
汽车污染对婴幼儿健康的影响——来自排放作弊的证据
Diane Alexander, Hannes Schwandt
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2872–2910, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac007
In 2008, Volkswagen introduced a new generation of “Clean Diesel” cars and heavily marketed them to environmentally conscious US consumers. Unknown to the public, these cars were anything but clean, emitting pollutants up to 150 times the level of comparable gas-fuelled cars. We study the rollout of these emissions-cheating diesel cars across the United States from 2008 to 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the impact of moderate levels of car pollution on infant and child health in the general population. Using the universe of vehicle registrations, we find that an additional cheating diesel car per 1,000 cars increases PM2.5PM2.5, PM10PM10, and ozone by 2, 2.2, and 1.3%%, respectively, while the low birth weight rate and infant mortality rate increase by 1.9 and 1.7%%, respectively. Similar impacts are found for acute asthma attacks in children. These health impacts occur at all pollution levels and across the socioeconomic spectrum.
2008年，大众汽车推出了新一代“清洁柴油”汽车，并向具有环保意识的美国消费者进行了大量营销。公众不知道，这些汽车一点也不干净，排放的污染物是同类汽油燃料汽车的150倍。我们研究了2008年至2015年美国各地这些排放作弊柴油车的推出，作为一项自然实验，以研究中等水平的汽车污染对普通人群中婴幼儿健康的影响。使用车辆登记量，我们发现每1000辆汽车增加一辆作弊柴油车，PM2.5 PM2.5、PM10PM10和臭氧分别增加2%、2.2%和1.3%，而低出生体重率和婴儿死亡率增加1.9%和1.7%分别。对儿童急性哮喘发作也有类似的影响。这些健康影响发生在所有污染水平和整个社会经济范围内。
3．The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements
交通基础设施改善的福利效应
Treb Allen, Costas Arkolakis
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2911–2957, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac001
Each year in the US, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on transportation infrastructure and billions of hours are lost in traffic. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial framework featuring endogenous transportation costs and traffic congestion and apply it to evaluate the welfare impact of transportation infrastructure improvements. Our approach yields analytical expressions for transportation costs between any two locations, the traffic along each link of the transportation network, and the equilibrium distribution of economic activity across the economy, each as a function of the underlying quality of infrastructure and the strength of traffic congestion. We characterize the properties of such an equilibrium and show how the framework can be combined with traffic data to evaluate the impact of improving any segment of the infrastructure network. Applying our framework to both the US highway network and the Seattle road network, we find highly variable returns to investment across different links in the respective transportation networks, highlighting the importance of well-targeted infrastructure investment.
在美国，每年有数千亿美元用于交通基础设施，数十亿小时在交通中损失。我们开发了一个以内生交通成本和交通拥堵为特征的定量一般均衡空间框架，并将其应用于评估交通基础设施改善对福利的影响。我们的方法可以分析任何两个地点之间的运输成本、运输网络每个环节的交通量以及整个经济中经济活动的均衡分布，每个都取决于基础设施的基本质量和交通拥堵的强度。我们描述了这种均衡的特性，并展示了如何将框架与交通数据相结合，以评估改善基础设施网络任何部分的影响。将我们的框架应用于美国高速公路网络和西雅图公路网络，我们发现各自交通网络中不同环节的投资回报率差异很大，这凸显了有针对性的基础设施投资的重要性。
4．Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples
宏观经济的主观模型：来自专家的证据和代表性样本
Peter Andre, Carlo Pizzinelli, Christopher Roth, Johannes Wohlfart
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2958–2991, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac008
We study people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical information about the parameters of the shocks and previous realizations of macroeconomic variables. Within samples of 6,500 US households and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about the directional effects of shocks, and there are large differences in average beliefs between households and experts. Part of this disagreement seems to arise because respondents think of different propagation channels of the shocks, in particular demand- vs. supply-side mechanisms. We provide evidence on the role of associative memory in driving heterogeneity in thoughts and forecasts: contextual cues and prior experiences shape which propagation channels individuals retrieve and thereby which forecasts they make. Our findings offer a new perspective on the widely documented disagreement in macroeconomic expectations.
我们研究人们对宏观经济的主观模型，并阐明他们的注意力基础。为此，我们衡量了对宏观经济冲击对失业和通货膨胀影响的信念，为受访者提供了关于冲击参数和宏观经济变量先前实现的相同信息。在6，500个美国家庭和1，500名专家的样本中，信念广泛分散，甚至关于冲击的方向效应，家庭和专家之间的平均信念存在很大差异。这种分歧的部分原因似乎是因为受访者认为冲击的传播渠道不同，特别是需求与供应方机制。我们提供了关于联想记忆在驱动思想和预测异质性方面的作用的证据：上下文线索和先前的经验塑造了个人检索的传播渠道，从而形成了他们做出的预测。我们的研究结果为宏观经济预期中广泛记录的分歧提供了新的视角。
5．Product Life Cycle, Learning, and Nominal Shocks
产品生命周期、学习和名义冲击
David Argente, Chen Yeh
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2992–3054, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac004
This article documents a new set of stylized facts on how pricing moments depend on product age and emphasizes how this heterogeneity is crucial for the amplification of nominal shocks to the real economy. Exploiting information from a unique panel containing billions of transactions in the US consumer goods sector, we show that our empirical findings are consistent with a narrative in which firms face demand uncertainty and learn through prices. Such a mechanism of active learning from prices can strongly influence an economy’s aggregate price level and can thus be important for assessing the degree of monetary non-neutrality. To quantify this, we build a general equilibrium menu cost model with active learning and exogenous entry that features heterogeneity in pricing moments over the life cycle of products. Under this setup, firms engage in active learning to deal with uncertainty on their demand curves. Firms choose prices not only to maximize static profits but also to create signals to obtain valuable information on their demand. In the calibrated version of our model, the cumulative real effects of a nominal shock are approximately three times as large compared to a standard price-setting model. The main intuition behind this result is that active learning weakens the selection effect. Price changes are mainly determined by forces of active learning and, hence, become more orthogonal to aggregate shocks, which reduces the aggregate price flexibility of the economy.
本文记录了一组关于定价时刻如何取决于产品年龄的典型事实，并强调了这种异质性对于放大对实体经济的名义冲击至关重要。利用来自包含美国消费品行业数十亿笔交易的独特面板的信息，我们表明我们的实证发现与公司面临需求不确定性并通过价格学习的叙述一致。这种主动学习价格的机制可以强烈影响经济体的总价格水平，因此对于评估货币非中性程度非常重要。为了量化这一点，我们建立了一个具有主动学习和外生进入的一般均衡菜单成本模型，该模型具有产品生命周期中定价时刻的异质性。在这种设置下，公司进行主动学习以应对需求曲线的不确定性。企业选择价格不仅是为了最大化静态利润，也是为了创造信号来获得有价值的需求信息。在我们模型的校准版本中，名义冲击的累积实际效应大约是标准定价模型的三倍。这个结果背后的主要直觉是主动学习削弱了选择效应。价格变化主要由主动学习的力量决定，因此与总体冲击更加正交，从而降低了经济的总体价格灵活性。
6．Coordinated Capacity Reductions and Public Communication in the Airline Industry
航空业的协调运力削减和公共沟通
Gaurab Aryal, Federico Ciliberto, Benjamin T Leyden
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3055–3084, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab100
We investigate the allegation that legacy US airlines communicated via earnings calls to coordinate with other legacy airlines in offering fewer seats on competitive routes. To this end, we first use text analytics to build a novel dataset on communication among airlines about their capacity choices. Estimates from our preferred specification show that the number of offered seats is 2%% lower when all legacy airlines in a market discuss the concept of “capacity discipline.” We verify that this reduction materializes only when legacy airlines communicate concurrently, and that it cannot be explained by other possibilities, including that airlines are simply announcing to investors their unilateral plans to reduce capacity, and then following through on those announcements.
我们调查了美国传统航空公司通过财报电话会议与其他传统航空公司协调在竞争航线上提供较少座位的指控。为此，我们首先使用文本分析来构建航空公司之间关于其运力选择的通信的新数据集。根据我们首选规格的估计，当市场上所有传统航空公司讨论“运力纪律”的概念时，提供的座位数量会降低 2%。我们证实，只有当传统航空公司同时沟通时，这种减少才会实现，并且不能用其他可能性来解释，包括航空公司只是向投资者宣布他们单方面削减运力的计划，然后继续执行这些公告。
7．Yogurts Choose Consumers? Estimation of Random-Utility Models via Two-Sided Matching
酸奶选择消费者？基于双侧匹配的随机效用模型估计
Odran Bonnet, Alfred Galichon, Yu-Wei Hsieh, Keith O’Hara, Matt Shum
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3085–3114, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac006
The problem of demand inversion—a crucial step in the estimation of random utility discrete-choice models—is equivalent to the determination of stable outcomes in two-sided matching models. This equivalence applies to random utility models that are not necessarily additive, smooth, nor even invertible. Based on this equivalence, algorithms for the determination of stable matchings provide effective computational methods for estimating these models. For non-invertible models, the identified set of utility vectors is a lattice, and the matching algorithms recover sharp upper and lower bounds on the utilities. Our matching approach facilitates estimation of models that were previously difficult to estimate, such as the pure characteristics model. An empirical application to voting data from the 1999 European Parliament elections illustrates the good performance of our matching-based demand inversion algorithms in practice.
需求倒置问题——随机效用离散选择模型估计的关键步骤——等效于在双侧匹配模型中确定稳定结果。这种等同性适用于不一定是可加的、光滑的，甚至不可逆的随机实用新型。基于这种等价性，用于确定稳定匹配的算法为估计这些模型提供了有效的计算方法。对于不可逆模型，识别的效用向量集是一个格，匹配算法恢复效用的尖锐上限和下限。我们的匹配方法有助于估计以前难以估计的模型，例如纯特征模型。对1999年欧洲议会选举投票数据的实证应用说明了我们基于匹配的需求反演算法在实践中的良好表现。
8．China’s Model of Managing the Financial System
中国的金融体系管理模式
Markus K Brunnermeier, Michael Sockin, Wei Xiong
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3115–3153, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab098
China’s economic model involves regular and intensive government interventions in financial markets, while Western policymakers often refrain from substantial interventions outside crisis periods. We develop a theoretical framework to rationalize the approaches of both China and the West to managing the financial system as being optimal given the differences in their respective economies. In this framework, a government leans against trading of noise traders but at the expense of introducing policy noise to the market. Our welfare analysis shows that under certain underlying economic conditions, the optimal government policy induces a government-centric equilibrium, in which government intervention is so intensive that all investors choose to acquire private information about policy noise rather than fundamentals. This policy regime characterizes China’s approach with financial stability prioritized over other policy objectives.
中国的经济模式涉及政府对金融市场的定期和密集干预，而西方决策者往往避免在危机时期之外进行实质性干预。我们开发了一个理论框架，使中国和西方在各自经济差异的情况下将金融体系的管理方法合理化为最优。在这个框架下，政府倾向于反对噪音交易者的交易，但代价是将政策噪音引入市场。我们的福利分析表明，在某些潜在的经济条件下，最优的政府政策会导致以政府为中心的均衡，其中政府干预如此密集，以至于所有投资者都选择获取有关政策噪音而不是基本面的私人信息。这种政策制度的特点是中国将金融稳定置于其他政策目标之上的方法。
9．The Design of Teacher Assignment: Theory and Evidence
教师分配设计：理论与证据
Julien Combe, Olivier Tercieux, Camille Terrier
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3154–3222,
To assign teachers to schools, a modified version of the well-known deferred acceptance mechanism has been proposed in the literature and is used in practice. We show that this mechanism fails to be fair and efficient for both teachers and schools. We identify a class of strategy-proof mechanisms that cannot be improved upon in terms of both efficiency and fairness. Using a rich dataset on teachers’ applications in France, we estimate teachers preferences and perform a counterfactual analysis. The results show that these mechanisms perform much better than the modified version of deferred acceptance. For instance, the number of teachers moving from their positions more than triples under our mechanism.
为了将教师分配到学校，文献中提出了众所周知的延期接受机制的修改版本，并在实践中使用。我们表明，这种机制对教师和学校都不公平和有效。我们确定了一类在效率和公平性方面都无法改进的战略证明机制。使用关于法国教师申请的丰富数据集，我们估计了教师的偏好并进行反事实分析。结果表明，这些机制的性能远优于延迟接受的修改版本。例如，在我们的机制下，从其职位上调离的教师人数增加了两倍多。
10．A Theory of Participation in OTC and Centralized Markets
参与场外交易和中心化市场的理论
Jérôme Dugast, Semih Üslü, Pierre-Olivier Weill
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3223–3266, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac010
Should regulators encourage the migration of trade from over-the-counter (OTC) to centralized markets? To address this question, we study a model in which banks make costly decisions to participate in an OTC market, a centralized market, or both markets at the same time. Banks differ in their ability to take large positions, what we call their trading capacity. In equilibrium, intermediate-capacity banks find it optimal to participate in the centralized market. In contrast, low- and high-capacity banks find it optimal to participate in the OTC market, due to an endogenous complementarity. Namely, low-capacity banks receive worse terms of trade than in the centralized market but better risk sharing, thanks to the intermediation services offered by high-capacity banks. High-capacity banks receive worse risk sharing than in the centralized market, but profit from the provision of intermediation services to low-capacity banks. While the social optimum has qualitatively similar participation patterns, it prescribes that more customers migrate to the centralized market, and that more dealers enter the OTC market.
监管机构是否应该鼓励交易从场外交易（OTC）向中心化市场转移？为了解决这个问题，我们研究了一种模型，在该模型中，银行做出昂贵的决策来参与场外交易市场、集中市场或同时参与两个市场。银行持有大量头寸的能力不同，我们称之为交易能力。在均衡中，中等能力银行发现参与中心化市场是最佳选择。相比之下，由于内生互补性，低容量和高容量银行发现参与场外交易市场是最佳选择。也就是说，由于高能力银行提供的中介服务，低能力银行获得的贸易条件比集中市场差，但风险分担更好。高容量银行的风险分担比集中市场更差，但从向低容量银行提供中介服务中获利。虽然社交最优的参与模式在性质上相似，但它规定更多的客户迁移到中心化市场，更多的经销商进入场外交易市场。
11．Welfare and Redistribution in Residential Electricity Markets with Solar Power
太阳能住宅电力市场的福利和再分配
Fabian Feger, Nicola Pavanini, Doina Radulescu
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3267–3302, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac005
An increasing number of households installing solar panels and consuming the energy thus produced raises two challenges for regulators: network financing and vertical equity. We propose alternative tariff and subsidy designs for policymakers to incentivize solar panel adoptions and guarantee that network costs are recovered, while trading off efficiency, equity, and welfare motives. We estimate a structural model of energy demand and solar panel adoption, using a unique matched dataset on energy consumption, prices, income, wealth, solar panel installations, and building characteristics for 165,000 households in Switzerland from 2008 to 2014. Our counterfactuals recommend the optimal solar panel installation cost subsidies and two-part energy tariffs to achieve a solar energy target. We show that, relative to installation cost subsidies, relying on marginal prices to incentivize solar panel adoptions is more cost efficient and progressive across the income distribution, but generates a larger aggregate welfare loss.
越来越多的家庭安装太阳能电池板并消耗由此产生的能源，这给监管机构带来了两个挑战：网络融资和垂直公平。我们为政策制定者提出了替代关税和补贴设计，以激励太阳能电池板的采用并保证网络成本得到回收，同时权衡效率、公平和福利动机。我们使用2008年至2014年瑞士165，000户家庭的能源消耗，价格，收入，财富，太阳能电池板安装和建筑特征的独特匹配数据集，估算了能源需求和太阳能电池板采用的结构模型。我们的反事实建议最佳的太阳能电池板安装成本补贴和两部分能源关税，以实现太阳能目标。我们表明，相对于安装成本补贴，依靠边际价格来激励太阳能电池板的采用在整个收入分配中更具成本效益和进步性，但会产生更大的总福利损失。
12．Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation
海堤和高跷：气候适应的定量宏观研究
Stephie Fried
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3303–3344, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab099
Can we reduce the damage from climate change by investing in seawalls, stilts, or other forms of adaptation? Focusing on the case of severe storms in the US, I develop a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the interactions between adaptation, federal disaster policy, and climate change. The model departs from the standard climate damage function and incorporates the damage from storms as the realization of idiosyncratic shocks. Using the calibrated model, I infer that adaptation capital comprises approximately 1|$\%$| of the US capital stock. I find that while the moral hazard effects from disaster aid reduce adaptation in the US economy, federal subsidies for investment in adaptation more than correct for the moral hazard. I introduce climate change into the model as a permanent increase in either or both the severity or probability of storms. Adaptation reduces the damage from this climate change by approximately one-third. Finally, I show that modelling the idiosyncratic risk component of climate damage has quantitatively important implications for adaptation and for the welfare cost of climate change.
我们能否通过投资海堤、高跷或其他形式的适应措施来减少气候变化造成的损害？专注于美国严重风暴的情况，我开发了一个宏观异构代理模型来量化适应、联邦灾害政策和气候变化之间的相互作用。该模型偏离了标准的气候损伤函数，并将风暴造成的损害纳入了特质冲击的实现。使用校准模型，我推断适应资本约为1|$\%$| 美国股本。我发现，虽然救灾援助的道德风险效应降低了美国经济的适应能力，但联邦对适应投资的补贴足以弥补道德风险。我将气候变化引入模型，作为风暴严重程度或概率的永久增加。适应将这种气候变化造成的损害减少了约三分之一。最后，我表明，对气候损害的特殊风险成分进行建模对适应和气候变化的福利成本具有定量上的重要意义。
13．Measuring Unfair Inequality: Reconciling Equality of Opportunity and Freedom from Poverty
衡量不公平的不平等：调和机会平等与免于贫困的自由
Paul Hufe, Ravi Kanbur, Andreas Peichl
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3345–3380, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab101
Empirical evidence on distributional preferences shows that people do not judge inequality as problematic per se but that they take into account the fairness or unfairness of the outcome. This article conceptualizes a view of unfair inequality and introduces a new measure of inequality based on two widely held fairness principles: equality of opportunity and freedom from poverty. It develops a method for decomposing inequality and its trends into an unfair and a fair component. We provide two empirical applications of our measure. First, we analyse the development of inequality in the US from 1969 to 2014 from a fairness perspective. Second, we conduct a corresponding international comparison between the US and 31 European countries in 2010. Our results document that unfair inequality matches the well-documented inequality growth in the US since 1980. This trend is driven by decreases in social mobility, i.e., increasing importance of parental education and occupation for the income of their children. Among the 32 countries of our international comparison, the land of opportunity ranks among the most unfair societies in 2010.
关于分配偏好的经验证据表明，人们并不认为不平等本身有问题，而是考虑到结果的公平或不公平。本文概念化了不公平不平等的观点，并介绍了基于两个广泛持有的公平原则的新不平等衡量标准：机会平等和免于贫困的自由。它开发了一种将不平等及其趋势分解为不公平和公平组成部分的方法。我们提供了两种测量的实证应用。首先，我们从公平的角度分析了1969年至2014年美国不平等的发展。其次，我们对2010年美国与31个欧洲国家进行了相应的国际比较。我们的研究结果证明，不公平的不平等与美国自1980年以来有据可查的不平等增长相匹配。这一趋势是由社会流动性的下降推动的，即父母的教育和职业对其子女收入的重要性日益增加。在我们国际比较的32个国家中，机会之地是2010年最不公平的社会之一。
14．Globalization, Gender, and the Family
全球化、性别和家庭
Wolfgang Keller, Hale Utar
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3381–3409, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac012
Facing the same labour demand shock through imports from China, we show that men and women make different labour market and family adjustments that result in significant long-run gender inequality. The gender gap is driven by the female biological clock. Using population registers and matched employer-employee data from Denmark, we document that especially women in their late 30s, towards the end of their biological clock, decide to have a baby as the shock causes displacement. High-earning women in leadership positions and women who need to acquire new human capital are central because their new employment would require particularly high investments that are incompatible with having a newborn in the short time remaining on the biological clock. While children penalize women in the labour market, we show that due to the biological clock an otherwise gender-neutral shock leads to a gender gap in the labour market.
面对来自中国的进口带来的同样的劳动力需求冲击，我们表明，男性和女性进行了不同的劳动力市场和家庭调整，导致严重的长期性别不平等。性别差距是由女性生物钟驱动的。使用来自丹麦的人口登记和匹配的雇主 - 雇员数据，我们记录了特别是30多岁的女性，在生物钟结束时，决定生孩子，因为休克导致流离失所。担任领导职务的高收入妇女和需要获得新人力资本的妇女是核心，因为她们的新工作需要特别高的投资，这与在生物钟剩余的短时间内生一个新生儿是不相容的。虽然儿童在劳动力市场上惩罚妇女，但我们表明，由于生物钟，原本性别中立的冲击会导致劳动力市场的性别差距。
15．The Unavoidability of Low Inflation–Low Output Traps
Narayana R Kocherlakota
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3410–3435, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac009
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the monies of the developed world have been unbacked by any formal promise of convertibility. Yet, inflation has typically undershot, not overshot, central bank targets over the past couple decades. The low, while generally positive, inflation rate has (more arguably) been associated with low output and low growth. In this article, I consider these observations through the lens of a class of representative agent rational expectations models with nominal (price-setting) frictions and the possibility of firm entry/exit. I show that for any level of nominal frictions (no matter how small) and for any monetary policy rule that satisfies a set of weak restrictions, there is a large set of equilibria that exhibit permanently low inflation, low output, and low nominal interest rates. These equilibria can only exhibit positive long-run inflation if growth is low and the specification of nominal frictions (i.e. the Phillips curve) takes an unconventional but nonetheless empirically plausible form.
自布雷顿森林货币体系崩溃以来，发达国家的货币一直没有任何正式的可兑换承诺的支持。然而，在过去几十年中，通胀通常低于而不是超过央行的目标。低通胀率（虽然总体上是正的）与低产出和低增长有关。在本文中，我通过一类具有名义（价格设定）摩擦和公司进入/退出可能性的代表性代理理性预期模型来考虑这些观察结果。我表明，对于任何水平的名义摩擦（无论多小）和满足一系列弱限制的任何货币政策规则，都有大量的均衡表现出永久的低通胀、低产出和低名义利率。这些均衡只有在增长较低且名义摩擦的规格（即菲利普斯曲线）采取非常规但经验上合理的形式时才能表现出积极的长期通货膨胀。
