每天一篇经济学人 | The next election 下一届选举（2022年

You could tell something was afoot on the swampy, sweltering evening of November 15th in Palm Beach. The bridge to Mar-a-Lago, the opulent resort where Donald Trump resides, was thronged with fans who draped themselves, despite the humidity, in “Make America Great Again” flags—ambling, praying, tailgating. Inside the former president’s palace something extraordinary was indeed happening, in front of a swankier crowd—an assemblage of suits with red baseball caps and evening dresses with pearls. Mr Trump was there to announce formally a decision that he had already hinted at over the past year: that he would be embarking on a revenge bid to take back the presidency in 2024.

11月15日，在棕榈滩这个潮湿闷热的夜晚，你可以感觉到有什么正在进行。通往唐纳德·特朗普居住的豪华度假胜地海湖庄园的桥上挤满了粉丝，尽管天气潮湿，他们还是披着“让美国再次伟大”的旗帜漫步、祈祷、跟车。在前总统的豪宅里，在一群更时髦的人面前（他们身着西装，戴着红色棒球帽，她们穿着缀有珍珠的晚礼服）确实发生了一些不寻常的事情。特朗普在那里正式宣布了一个他在过去一年里已经暗示过的决定:他将发起报复行动，争取在2024年夺回总统宝座。

Ever since he left the White House, shortly after the attempted insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, Mr Trump has been plotting a comeback. He managed to keep a tight leash on the party throughout the midterm elections, meddling in primaries to pick candidates who most fervently endorsed the lie that Democrats had stolen the presidential election. Having restored himself to the helm of the party, the former president was preparing to crow after November 8th when Republicans expected to sweep back to power.

自1月6日国会大厦暴动未遂后不久离开白宫以来，特朗普就一直在策划卷土重来。他设法在整个中期选举期间牢牢控制共和党，干预初选，以挑选那些最热衷于支持“民主党窃取总统选举结果”的谎言的候选人。这位前总统重新执掌共和党后，正准备在11月8日共和党有望重掌大权后自鸣得意。

That didn’t happen, however. The Senate remained in Democratic control, while Republicans scraped together the barest majority in the House of Representatives. The sycophants who ran in key races in the swing states of Arizona and Pennsylvania came up with naught. The performance was so sub-par that his advisers reportedly tried counselling him to delay the announcement. But contrition and humility are not Mr Trump’s thing. He simply took credit for the House flipping and blamed the bad results on other Republicans.

然而，这并没有发生。参议院仍由民主党控制，而共和党在众议院勉强获得了多数席位。在摇摆州亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州的关键竞选中，马屁精们一无所获。表现非常糟糕，据报道，他的顾问试图建议他推迟宣布这一消息。但忏悔和谦卑不是特朗普的风格。他只是把众议院的翻盘归功于自己，并把糟糕的结果归咎于其他共和党人。

There was little new in the speech, which was largely a rehashing of the hour-long stemwinders he has been delivering at political rallies for the better part of the year. He took his usual delight in claiming that “now we are a nation in decline” and “a failing nation”, recapitulating the theme of “American carnage” from his inaugural address by describing “blood-soaked streets” in cities that are “cesspools of violent crimes” and the invasion of fentanyl-toting illegal immigrants. His policy recommendations remained the same, with some updates for new culture-war battles over critical race theory and transgender children, though in addition to old proposals he now wants to execute drug-dealers. Once again, only he alone could fix it.

他的演讲几乎没有什么新意，基本上是在重复他今年大部分时间在政治集会上发表的长达一小时的长篇大论。他一如既往地津津乐道地宣称“现在我们的国家正在衰落”和“我们的国家正在失败”，通过描述城市“充满血腥的街道”是“暴力犯罪的污水池”，他重申了他在就职演说中的“美国大屠杀”主题以及携带芬太尼的非法移民的入侵。他的政策建议保持不变，只是在批评种族理论和跨性别儿童等新的文化战争问题上做了一些更新，尽管除了旧的建议之外，他现在还想处决毒贩。又一次，只有他一个人能解决。

But the fighting words were delivered with less verve. Perhaps the weight of the midterms embarrassment pressed down, or the mountain of legal inquiries, or the prospect of a two-year-long campaign. The light behind the eyes had dimmed. “I’m a victim, I will tell you,” he said in the most heartfelt portion of the speech.

但他的战斗言辞却缺乏斗志。也许是中期选举的尴尬压力，也许是堆积如山的法律调查，又或许是长达两年的竞选前景。他眼睛后面的光黯淡下来了。他在演讲中最真诚的部分说道，“我要告诉你们，我是一个受害者。”

Mr Trump’s haste to re-enter the fray can be explained by two things. First, the Department of Justice is investigating whether or not he improperly took classified materials from the White House; the congressional January 6th committee has spent more than a year unravelling the effort to overturn the election result; prosecutors in Georgia are examining his exhortation to election officials to “find” enough votes for him to secure victory. Prosecuting a former president for this was already fraught and unprecedented, presenting difficult paths to trial and conviction. That he is also an active presidential candidate—with a good chance at winning his party’s nomination again, and, Democrats must admit, the general election, too—makes prosecution even harder.

特朗普匆忙重返战场可以用两件事来解释。首先，司法部正在调查他是否以不当方式从白宫拿走了机密材料; 1月6日国会暴乱特别调查委员会花了一年多的时间来瓦解推翻选举结果的努力; 佐治亚州的检察官正在调查他对选举官员的敦促，即“找到”足够多的选票，以确保他获胜。为此起诉一位前总统已经是一件令人担忧且前所未有的事情，这给审判和定罪带来了艰难的道路。此外，他还是一位活跃的总统候选人，很有可能再次赢得党内提名，民主党人必须承认，大选也是如此，这使得起诉更加困难。

But, more important, his tight hold over the party is starting to be questioned, with elites searching for a way out that does not endanger their chance of maintaining power. Previous periods of questioning have usually been prompted by some whopping scandal—the revelation of the “Access Hollywood” tape in the closing days of the 2016 election, the praising of white supremacists who rallied in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or the campaign to delegitimise elections that ended in the sacking of the Capitol. In all cases, these doubts eventually subsided because Republicans reasoned that the man won them elections, and they could not work out a way to do so without him.

但更重要的是，他对共和党的严密控制正开始受到质疑，精英们正在寻找一条不危及他们维持权力机会的出路。前几次的质疑通常是由一些令人震惊的丑闻引发的——2016年大选最后几天《走进好莱坞》录音带的曝光，2017年对在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔集会的“白人至上主义者”的赞扬，或者以国会大厦被抢劫告终的取消选举合法性的运动。在所有的案例中，这些质疑最终都平息了，因为共和党人认为，是他为他们赢得了选举，没有他，他们无法找到解决办法。

The midterms have called that into question. Mr Trump lost Republicans the House in his own midterm elections in 2018; he lost the presidential election in 2020; he almost single-handedly lost Republicans the Senate in the Georgia run-off elections held in 2021; and in 2022 he arguably kept the Senate in Democratic hands by boosting the campaigns of novice candidates. A morally compromised winner Republicans could live with; a morally compromised loser is less enticing.

中期选举让这一点受到了质疑。2018年，特朗普在自己的中期选举中让共和党失去了众议院; 他在2020年的总统选举中失败; 在2021年举行的佐治亚州决选中，他几乎凭一己之力让共和党失去了参议院的席位; 2022年，他可以说是通过推动新手候选人的竞选活动，让参议院掌握在了民主党人手中。一个道德败坏的赢家，共和党人可以接受;一个道德败坏的失败者就没那么有吸引力了。

By declaring early Mr Trump hopes to freeze out his potential rivals to lead the party, such as Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia—both of whom the former president has already taken to sniping at. At his announcement speech at Mar-a-Lago, Mr Trump had the grace to refrain from reiterating his criticisms of them (he had branded one “Ron DeSanctimonious” and criticised the other for having a Chinese-sounding surname). Perhaps that is why the former president did not appear to be having much fun. He has always relished the personality-bashing aspects of politics, and much less to the dull business of making federal policy.

通过提前宣布参选，特朗普希望将其潜在的党内竞争对手拒之门外，比如佛罗里达州州长罗恩•德桑蒂斯和弗吉尼亚州州长格伦•杨金，前总统已经开始对这两人冷嘲冷讽。在海湖庄园的宣布演讲中，特朗普很有风度，没有重申他对他们的批评(他给其中一人贴上了“罗恩·道貌岸然者"的标记，并批评另一人的姓氏听起来像中文)。也许这就是为什么这位前总统似乎并没有玩得很开心的原因。他一直津津乐道于政治中对人格的抨击，而对制定联邦政策这一枯燥乏味的事务则不甚感兴趣。

He also avoided repeating his claims that the presidential election was stolen, save one passing insinuation that the X government had interfered to defeat

him.. If his advisers and speechwriters managed to keep him in check for one evening, they should not expect to do so over the two-year campaign for the presidency that now awaits them.

他也避免重复总统选举结果被窃取的说法，除了有一次影射说X政府干预了他。如果他的顾问和演讲稿撰写人在一个晚上成功地控制住了他，他们就不应该指望在等待他们的两年总统竞选中也能做到这一点。

Away from the presidential struggle, the midterm fallout is being felt in other ways. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican congressman who expected to be easily made Speaker of the House, secured such a small majority of seats that the truculent Freedom Caucus will be able to exact big concessions by threatening his removal.

除了总统竞选斗争，中期选举的影响还体现在其他方面。共和党国会议员凯文•麦卡锡原本有望轻松当选众议院议长，但他只获得了如此小的多数席位，以至于好斗的众议院自由党团可以通过威胁罢免他来迫使他做出重大让步。

In the Senate Mitch McConnell, the party’s minority leader, faced an unsuccessful challenge from Rick Scott, the senator from Florida. Although Mr Scott chaired the party committee in charge of ensuring a Senate majority, he blames Mr McConnell for the lacklustre result because he had expressed some displeasure at the Trumpian slate of candidates. Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the party since 2017, is also facing down a possible insurrection of her own. Even if all are ultimately unsuccessful, they reflect the anxieties of a party that must once again decide if the pact with Mr Trump is worth it.

在参议院，共和党少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔面临来自佛罗里达州参议员里克·斯科特的挑战，但没有成功。尽管斯科特是负责确保参议院多数席位的党派委员会主席，但他将平淡的结果归咎于麦康奈尔，因为麦康奈尔对特朗普式的候选人名单表达了一些不满。自2017年以来一直担任共和党全国委员会主席的罗娜·麦克丹尼尔也面临着一场可能的党内叛乱。即使所有这些最终都以失败告终，它们也反映出一个政党的焦虑，它必须再次决定与特朗普勾结是否值得。

Time and time again, the elected Republicans have balked when presented with opportunities to distance themselves from Mr Trump. The next few months will offer another one. At the moment, other contenders, including Trump administration officials like the former vice-president Mike Pence, who just released a memoir somewhat critical of his boss, are jostling for position but are unlikely to immediately declare their candidacies. Mr DeSantis would probably wait until after the Florida legislative session ends in May. Being the only major declared candidate might give Mr Trump the opportunity to consolidate slipping support within the party. It might also leave him the one most exposed to attacks from within. “The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Mr Trump warned in his speech. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.” This sense of apocalyptic anxiety is widely shared.

当选的共和党人一次又一次在与特朗普保持距离的机会面前退缩。接下来的几个月还会有另一场。目前，其他竞争者，包括前副总统迈克·彭斯等特朗普政府官员，正在争夺职位，但不太可能立即宣布参选。彭斯刚刚出版了一本回忆录，在一定程度上批评了他的老板。德桑蒂斯可能会等到佛罗里达州立法会议于5月结束后。作为唯一宣布参选的主要候选人，特朗普可能有机会巩固党内不断下滑的支持率。这也可能让他成为最容易受到内部攻击的人。特朗普在讲话中警告称:“ 我们前面的道路不会平坦。任何真正试图挑战这个被操纵和腐败的体系的人，都将面临只有少数人能理解的猛烈炮火。” 这种世界末日的焦虑感是普遍存在的。