The World in 2021--The power of green technology

Google’s boss says AI and machine learning will help

经济学人2020年12月刊

AFTER DECADES of incremental steps forward, 2021 will be the most significant year yet for combating climate change. Two recent developments have made this possible.

incremental/,ɪnkrɪ'mentəl/adj. （定额）增长的；逐渐的，逐步的；递增的

First, as science tells us that we have a decade to reduce emissions dramatically or face the worst impacts of climate change, many of those impacts have already arrived at our door. From the historic and deadly wildfires in Australia and California, to severe flooding around the world, there is no denying that climate change is already disrupting our daily lives. At the same time, support for climate action has never been stronger—from Generation Z’s solutions-oriented mindset, to political support that increasingly crosses party lines, to Europe’s large-scale ambition to become the first carbon-neutral continent, society is ever more unified against the threat of climate change.

Generation Z（Z一代：1996-2012）通常指那些在1996年以后出生的孩子，也就是生于60年代中期至70年代末的“X一代”的儿女。“Z一代”尚未出生就成了网络注册用户，他们常手拿电子玩具蹒跚学步。

Mindset  n. /ˈmaɪndset/  观念模式；思维倾向 • the mindset of the computer generation 计算机时代的思维倾向

carbon-neutral continent：碳中和大陆，就是碳产出（碳排放）和消耗的量（植树等固碳）相抵。某种意义上的零排放。

Second, we are seeing promising technologies and policies that will bring carbon-free energy within reach.Not long ago, it was hard to imagine a 24/7 Carbon-free electricity supply.At its most basic level, the wind does not always blow and the sun does not shine at night. But new technologies—including better energy storage and the reduction of costs associated with wind and solar powerby 7o% and 89% respectively over the past ten years—are bringing  24/7 carbon-free energy closer to reality.

Another of those technologies is artificial intelligence (AI). At Google, we are working on ways to apply AI to optimise electricity consumption within our data centres. In collaboration with our sister venture, DeepMind, we have developed solutions that have reduced the amount of energy used to cool our data centres by 3o%.This approach could be used by commercial buildings,including airports and shopping malls,to do the same. AI can also be used to make wind power more predictable, which will increase the value, utilisation and adoption of renewable energy.

DeepMind，位于英国伦敦，是由人工智能程序师兼神经科学家戴密斯·哈萨比斯(Demis Hassabis)等人联合创立，是前沿的人工智能企业，其将机器学习和系统神经科学的最先进技术结合起来，建立强大的通用学习算法。

Meanwhile, sensors on satellites can locate large-scale emitters of carbon dioxide at a very fine-grained level. This could dramatically improve the effectiveness of the Paris climate agreement. Technology is also helping cities reduce their carbon emissions. According to the Global Covenant of Mayors, an international alliance of over 10,000 cities and local governments committed to fighting climate change, less than 20% of cities outside western Europe have the time, resources and data to meet their climate commitments. With platforms like our own Environmental Insights Explorer, cities can use anonymised, aggregated mapping data to estimate the carbon footprint of their buildings and transport, and realise their solar-energy potential-a critical step, as cities continue to contribute over70% of the world's greenhouse-gas emissions.

Emitter /ɪˈmɪtə/发出者; 发射体

Covenant  n. /ˈkʌvənənt/ 承诺；合同；协约；（尤指定期付款的）契约 • a covenant to a charity 向慈善机构定期捐款的契约

anonymize  v.   /əˈnɒnɪmaɪz/ ( Bre also -ise) ( technical 术语 ) 消除（实验结果的）对象信息；使匿名化

Technology is also helping communities adapt to the effects of climate change that are already apparent. As one example, we are able to use satellite data to map wildfires in real time and better predict how they might spread. In India, flood forecasting models use AI to predict when floods will hit and how deep the waters will get, helping save lives. Machine learning is also being applied to "nowcast" rainfall sooner and with more accuracy than conventional forecasting methods, helping people make safer, more informed decisions.

Nowcast：now +forecast，临近预报

Driven by these promising trends and tools, companies have made bigger sustainability commitments in shorter time frames. At Google, we have eliminated our carbon legacy using high-quality offsets, and set a goal to operate on 24/7 carbon-free energy in all our data centres and campuses worldwide by 2030. Our aim is to demonstrate that a 100% carbon-free electrical grid is not just possible but also economically viable.We hope that companies of all sizes will join us in this effort.

Viable  adj. /ˈvaɪəbl/  

1. 可实施的；切实可行的•a viable option/proposition 切实可行的选择╱提议 

•to be commercially/politically/financially/economically viable 在商业上╱政治上╱财政上╱经济上可行

2.( biology 生 ) 能独立发展的；能独立生存的；可生长发育的 •viable organisms 可存活的生物

In addition to concrete and ambitious company commitments, the world also needs enabling policies and global frameworks to ensure we are working towards the same goals. We know it's possible: we have seen this kind of collaboration during the pandemic, as the private sector worked with governments to deliver personal protective equipment, medical devices and contact-tracing apps needed to fight the virus. Stronger public-private partnerships will be just as critical in fighting climate change.

Throughout history, every generation has confronted big challenges. Climate change will be our generation's most profound challenge—and in 2o21,the world will take its biggest steps yet to meet it.

译文

AFTER DECADES of incremental steps forward, 2021 will be the most significant year yet for combating climate change. Two recent developments have made this possible.

经过几十年的循序渐进，2021年将是对抗气候变化最重要的一年。最近的两项技术进展使这成为可能。

First, as science tells us that we have a decade to reduce emissions dramatically or face the worst impacts of climate change, many of those impacts have already arrived at our door. From the historic and deadly wildfires in Australia and California, to severe flooding around the world, there is no denying that climate change is already disrupting our daily lives. At the same time, support for climate action has never been stronger—from Generation Z’s solutions-oriented mindset, to political support that increasingly crosses party lines, to Europe’s large-scale ambition to become the first carbon-neutral continent, society is ever more unified against the threat of climate change.

首先，正如科学告诉我们的那样，我们有十年的时间来大幅减少排放，否则将面临气候变化最严重的影响，其中许多影响已经来到我们的家门口。从澳大利亚和加州历史性、致命野火，到世界各地的严重洪水。不可否认的是，气候变化已经扰乱了我们的日常生活。与此同时，对气候行动的支持从未像现在这样强烈——从Z一代以解决问题为导向的思维方式，到日益跨越党派界线的政治支持，再到欧洲成为第一个碳中和大陆的宏伟抱负，社会更加团结一致地应对气候变化的威胁。

Second, we are seeing promising technologies and policies that will bring carbon-free energy within reach.Not long ago, it was hard to imagine a 24/7 Carbon-free electricity supply.At its most basic level, the wind does not always blow and the sun does not shine at night. But new technologies—including better energy storage and the reduction of costs associated with wind and solar powerby 7o% and 89% respectively over the past ten years—are bringing  24/7 carbon-free energy closer to reality.

其次，我们看到未来可期的技术和政策将使无碳能源触手可及。不久之前，还很难想象全天候无碳供电。在最基本的层面上，风并不总是吹着，太阳也不会在夜晚照耀。但是新技术—包括更好的能源储存，以及风能和太阳能在过去十年分别降低了70%和89%的成本—正在使全天候无碳能源使用近在咫尺。

Another of those technologies is artificial intelligence (AI). At Google, we are working on ways to apply AI to optimise electricity consumption within our data centres. In collaboration with our sister venture, DeepMind, we have developed solutions that have reduced the amount of energy used to cool our data centres by 3o%.This approach could be used by commercial buildings,including airports and shopping malls,to do the same. AI can also be used to make wind power more predictable, which will increase the value, utilisation and adoption of renewable energy.

另一项技术是人工智能(AI)。在谷歌，我们正在研究如何应用人工智能来优化数据中心的用电量。通过与我们的姐妹公司DeepMind合作，我们开发了优化能源方案--使我们的数据中心冷却所需的能源减少了30%。这种方法可以用于商业建筑，包括机场和购物中心，以达到同样的效果。人工智能还可以用来提高风能的可预测性，这将增加可再生能源的价值、利用率和应用。

Meanwhile, sensors on satellites can locate large-scale emitters of carbon dioxide at a very fine-grained level. This could dramatically improve the effectiveness of the Paris climate agreement. Technology is also helping cities reduce their carbon emissions. According to the Global Covenant of Mayors, an international alliance of over 1o,ooo cities and local governments committed to fighting climate change, less than 2o% of cities outside western Europe have the time, resources and data to meet their climate commitments. With platforms like our own Environmental Insights Explorer, cities can use anonymised, aggregated mapping data to estimate the carbon footprint of their buildings and transport, and realise their solar-energy potential-a critical step, as cities continue to contribute over7o% of the world's greenhouse-gas emissions.

与此同时，卫星上的传感器可以在非常精细的水平上定位大规模的二氧化碳排放器，这将大大提高《巴黎气候协定》的效力。技术也在帮助城市减少碳排放。根据全球市长盟约（一个由超过1万个城市和地方政府组成的致力于对抗气候变化的国际联盟）的数据，西欧以外只有不到20%的城市有时间、资源和数据来履行其气候承诺。有像我们Environmental Insights Explorer（环境内部检测）这样的平台，城市可以使用匿名、整合的地图数据来估计其建筑和交通的碳足迹，并实现它们的太阳能潜力——这是关键的一步，因为城市继续贡献了世界上超过70%的温室气体排放。

Technology is also helping communities adapt to the effects of climate change that are already apparent. As one example, we are able to use satellite data to map wildfires in real time and better predict how they might spread. In India, flood forecasting models use AI to predict when floods will hit and how deep the waters will get, helping save lives. Machine learning is also being applied to "nowcast" rainfall sooner and with more accuracy than conventional forecasting methods, helping people make safer, more informed decisions.

技术也在帮助社区适应已经很明显的气候变化影响。举个例子，我们能够使用卫星数据实时绘制野火地图，更好地预测它们可能如何蔓延。在印度，洪水预测模型应用人工智能来预测洪水何时发生以及水深，帮助拯救生命。机器学习还被用于“临近预报”降雨，比传统预测方法更快、更准确，帮助人们做出更安全、更明智的决定。

Driven by these promising trends and tools, companies have made bigger sustainability commitments in shorter time frames. At Google, we have eliminated our carbon legacy using high-quality offsets, and set a goal to operate on 24/7 carbon-free energy in all our data centres and campuses worldwide by 2o3o. Our aim is to demonstrate that a 1oo% carbon-free electrical grid is not just possible but also economically viable.We hope that companies of all sizes will join us in this effort.

在这些有前景的趋势和工具的推动下，企业在更短的时间框架内做出了更大的可持续发展承诺。在谷歌，我们已经通过高质量的抵销交易消除了我们的碳遗留问题。并设定了一个目标：到2030年，在全球所有的数据中心和校园实现24小时无碳能源运营。我们的目标是证明100%无碳电网不仅是可能的，而且在经济上也是可行的。我们希望各个公司都能加入我们的努力。

In addition to concrete and ambitious company commitments, the world also needs enabling policies and global frameworks to ensure we are working towards the same goals. We know it's possible: we have seen this kind of collaboration during the pandemic, as the private sector worked with governments to deliver personal protective equipment, medical devices and contact-tracing apps needed to fight the virus. Stronger public-private partnerships will be just as critical in fighting climate change.

除了企业做出具体而有野心的承诺外，世界还需要有利政策和全球框架，以确保我们朝着同样的目标努力。我们知道这是可能的:在新冠大流行期间，我们看到了这种合作，私营部门与政府合作，提供抗击病毒所需的个人防护设备、医疗设备和接触者追踪应用程序。更强大的公私伙伴关系在应对气候变化方面同样至关重要。

Throughout history, every generation has confronted big challenges. Climate change will be our generation's most profound challenge—and in 2o21,the world will take its biggest steps yet to meet it.

纵观历史，每一代人都面临过巨大的挑战。气候变化将是我们这代人面临的最深刻的挑战——在2021年，世界将采取迄今为止最大的措施来应对气候变化。