文章来源：《经济学人》Jul 22th 2023 期 Leaders 栏目 The world economy 世界经济

[Paragraph 1]

Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Not long ago it seemed that an American recession was inevitable, as the Federal Reserve kept raising interest rates to fight inflation. Other central banks were following suit, their inflation problems made worse by a surging dollar—a particular problem for the emerging markets that borrow and trade using America’s currency. Yet news that America’s headline rate of annual inflation fell to 3% in June has fed hopes that the Fed’s next rate rise, which is expected on July 26th, will be its last and that other central banks might relax, too. Stocks are up, bond yields are down and the greenback is at close to its weakest since the Fed began raising rates.

经济学家并不以其乐观著称，但今天他们的喜悦显而易见。不久之前，由于美联储持续提高利率以抑制通货膨胀，美国经济衰退似乎是不可避免的。其他中央银行也在效仿，他们的通货膨胀问题由于美元的飙升而变得更加严重——这对于以美元借贷和贸易的新兴市场来说是一个特别大的问题。然而，6月份美国年度通货膨胀率降至3%的消息让人们燃起了这样的希望：美联储下一次加息(预计在7月26日)将是最后一次加息，其他央行可能也会放松政策。股票上涨，债券收益率下降，美元接近自美联储开始加息以来的最低点。

[Paragraph 2]

The surge of hope is all the more unusual because the world economy is slowing down. On July 17th China reported that its economy grew by a mere 0.8% in the second quarter compared with the prior three months, even though many had expected a boom after the government abandoned its “zero-covid” policy in December. Global manufacturing has suffered as consumers came out of lockdowns and began eating out more and buying less home-office equipment. And, although America grew strongly in the first half of the year, most forecasters expect the economy soon to slow.

由于全球经济正在放缓，这种希望的高涨显得更加不同寻常。7月17日，中国报告称其相比上一季度，其经济在第二季度仅增长0.8%，然后许多人预计在去年12月疫情“放开”后会出现经济繁荣。随着消费者走出“家门”并开始外出用餐、购买更少的家庭办公设备，全球制造业也受到了影响。虽然美国上半年经济增长强劲，但大多数预测师预计经济很快将放缓。

[Paragraph 3]

Increasingly, however, they are not expecting it to shrink. And growth cooling just enough to bring down inflation without a recession is the best-case scenario for overheated economies like America’s. Even the disappointing reopening in China, which does not have an inflation problem of its own, has meant a feared surge in global commodities prices has not materialised. That has helped Europe, which has replaced piped Russian gas with shipments of the liquefied sort.

然而，越来越多的人并不期望经济会收缩。对于像美国这样过热的经济体来说，经济增长降温到足以在不引发衰退的情况下降低通胀是最好的情况。尽管中国在疫情后的经济复苏进展不如人们所期望（中国本身没有通货膨胀问题），但这也意味着原本担心的全球大宗商品价格激增并未出现。这对欧洲有所帮助，欧洲已经用液化天然气取代了从俄罗斯输送的管道天然气。

[Paragraph 4]

Yet it would be a mistake to assume that the world economy is now on track for a so-called soft landing, for three reasons. The first is that inflation, though lower, remains far above central banks’ 2% targets. The fall in America’s headline rate has been driven by a one-off decline in energy prices: exclude food and energy, and prices are 4.8% higher than a year ago. In the euro zone the figure is 5.5%, and in both economies wages are still growing far in excess of productivity growth.

然而，如果认为全球经济现在正朝着所谓的软着陆方向发展，那就大错特错了，原因有三。第一个原因是，尽管通货膨胀率下降，但仍然远高于中央银行的2%目标。美国整体通胀率下降是因为能源价格的一次性下降：不包括食品和能源，物价比一年前高出4.8%。在欧元区，这个数字是5.5%，而在这两个经济体中，工资仍然远远高于生产率增长。

[Paragraph 5]

In other words, the rich world has some way to go before it is fully disinflated—and many economists expect the last mile to be the hardest. Though stubborn inflation of, say, 3-4% does not grab headlines as much as recent alarming price rises, it would still be a problem for central bankers. They might have to choose between more tightening than is currently expected and tacitly abandoning their 2% goals. Either would be disruptive for asset markets and potentially for the real economy, too.

换句话说，发达国家在完全抑制通货膨胀方面还有很长的路要走，许多经济学家预计“最后一英里”将是最困难的。尽管顽固的通货膨胀率（例如3-4%）并没有像最近引起人们警惕的物价上涨那样引起轰动，但它仍然是中央银行家们需要解决的问题。他们可能不得不在更紧缩的政策和默认放弃2%目标之间做出选择。任何一种选择都可能对资产市场产生破坏性影响，并可能对实体经济造成影响。

[Paragraph 6]

The second risk is that, whereas the world is seeing the benefits of cooling off now, the costs may not be visible for a while. So far America’s labour market has rebalanced fairly painlessly by reducing vacancies rather than jobs. Hiring is still strong and lay-offs are rare. With job openings less plentiful, wage growth has fallen. Yet nobody knows for how long the jobs market can shed fat rather than muscle—and in recent months the fall in job openings has stalled ominously. Across the rich world there is evidence that firms, scarred by the memory of labour shortages, have been hoarding workers they don’t need; in several countries average hours worked have been falling. Should companies decide that it is too costly to cling to workers who may or may not be needed in the future, then lay-offs could rise abruptly.

第二个风险是，虽然现在世界正在看到经济降温的好处，但代价可能需要一段时间才能显现。到目前为止，美国的劳动力市场通过减少“不必要的”招聘而不是裁员来实现相对轻松的再平衡。招聘仍然强劲，裁员很少。随着招聘减少，工资增长已经放缓。然而，没有人知道就业市场在“减少不必要的岗位而非裁员”上还会持续多久。最近几个月“就业岗位减少”已经停滞不前，这是一个不祥的迹象。在发达国家，有证据表明企业因为受过“劳动力短缺”的苦而囤积了他们不需要的工人；在一些国家，平均工作时长一直在下降。如果企业决定坚持留住未来可能需要也可能不需要的工人成本过高，那么裁员可能会突然增加。

[Paragraph 7]

The third danger is that divergence among the world’s big economies means that even as the pressure on the Fed lifts, policymakers elsewhere remain worried. Britain is celebrating a larger-than-expected fall in annual inflation in June, but with underlying price and wage growth of around 7% it remains a troubling outlier (see Britain section). Japan has barely started its monetary tightening; with inflation rising, the Bank of Japan may adjust its cap on long-term bond yields again at the end of July. China could be contending with a structural growth slowdown in which the economy is weighed down by bad debts, as Japan’s was in the early 1990s, and in which inflation is persistently too low.

第三个危险是，世界各大经济体之间的不同意味着，尽管美联储的压力有所减轻，但其他地方的政策制定者仍然感到担忧。英国正在庆祝6月份年度通货膨胀率的下降超出预期，但由于基础价格和工资增长率约为7%，它仍然是一个令人担忧的特例（请参见英国部分）。日本几乎没有开始货币紧缩政策；随着通货膨胀上升，日本央行可能会在7月底再次调整其长期债券收益率上限。中国可能正在应对结构性增长放缓，其经济因坏账而受到拖累（就像日本在20世纪90年代初期一样），同时通货膨胀率持续过低。

[Paragraph 8]

Wherever you look, in other words, there remains immense uncertainty about where inflation and interest rates will eventually settle. By all means celebrate good news. But the world economy has not yet escaped unscathed.

换句话说，无论你看哪里，通货膨胀和利率最终会稳定在什么水平仍存在巨大的不确定性。尽管放心去庆祝好消息。不过世界经济仍然会受到一些负面因素的影响。