经济学顶刊Journal of Development Economics （双月刊）2023年第1期

Journal of Development Economics （双月刊）2013年第1期

 

 

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1.Early childhood exposure to health insurance and adolescent outcomes: Evidence from rural China

儿童早期接触健康保险与青少年结局:来自中国农村的证据

Wei Huang, Hong Liu

This paper examines the impact of exposure to public health insurance in early life on outcomes in adolescence in rural China. Exploiting the variation in the county-by-county rollout of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) between 2003 and 2008, we find that exposure to the NCMS during ages 0–5 significantly improves health, cognitive, and educational outcomes during adolescence. In contrast, exposure after age five has no significant effects. Our further investigation provides evidence for several underlying mechanisms, such as improved prenatal care and birth outcomes, better preventive medical protection against childhood diseases, and lower risk in medical expenditure.

本文研究了中国农村青少年早期接受公共医疗保险对其健康状况的影响。利用2003年至2008年间各个县推行新合作医疗计划的差异，我们发现，在0-5岁期间接触新合作医疗计划显著改善了青少年时期的健康、认知和教育成果。相比之下，五岁以后的接触没有显著的影响。我们的进一步调查提供了一些潜在机制的证据，如改善产前护理和分娩结果，更好的预防儿童疾病的医疗保护，以及降低医疗支出风险。

 

 

 

2.Unilateral divorce rights, domestic violence and women’s agency: Evidence from the Egyptian 

单方面离婚权利、家庭暴力与妇女机构:来自埃及的证据

 Viola Corradini, Giulia Buccione

We investigate whether the introduction of the right to unilateral, no-fault, divorce for women has an impact on domestic abuse, investments in children’s human capital, women’s labor force participation, and other proxies of women’s agency in the context of the Egyptian Khul reform of 2000. We employ a difference in differences design, comparing mothers of children older than the age cutoffs used to assign the children’s custody to the mother, to mothers of younger children, before and after the reform. The first group of women is less affected by the legislative change in terms of being able to make credible divorce threats because it faces higher divorce costs, including the loss of alimony and the marital house. Results suggest that the introduction of Khul decreased domestic abuse and increased investments into children’s education while we do not find significant effects on labor force participation.

我们调查了在2000年埃及Khul改革的背景下，妇女单方面无过错离婚权的引入是否对家庭虐待、儿童人力资本投资、妇女劳动力参与和其他妇女机构的代理产生了影响。我们采用了双重差分设计，比较了在改革前后，孩子年龄大于将孩子监护权分配给母亲的年龄界限的母亲，以及孩子年龄较小的母亲。第一类妇女在能够提出可信的离婚威胁方面较少受到立法变化的影响，因为它面临更高的离婚成本，包括失去赡养费和婚房。结果表明，Khul的引入减少了家庭暴力，增加了子女教育投入，但对劳动力参与的影响不显著。

 

 

 

3. Across a few prohibitive miles: The impact of the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China

跨越令人望而却步的几英里:中国反贫困搬迁计划的影响研究

Across a few prohibitive miles: The impact of the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China

Li Zhang, Lunyu Xie, Xinye Zheng

Many households are confined to remote rural villages in the developing world. This study examines the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China, considering the village-to-town relocation from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors induced by the program. While exploring a novel administrative data set on impoverished people in a Chinese county, we discovered that the program significantly increased the participants’ income by 9.61%, driven mainly by the increase in wage income. The empirical findings are consistent with the Roy-model perspective, which states that rural households with comparative advantage in non-agricultural sectors could benefit from relocation to nearby towns. This study provides new evidence that mobility barriers across sectors exist even on a small geographic scale in rural areas. The results of the cost–benefit analysis suggest that relocation of households in remote rural areas is a feasible policy tool for overcoming such mobility barriers.

许多家庭被限制在发展中国家偏远的农村。本文研究了中国的扶贫搬迁计划，考虑了扶贫搬迁计划导致的农业部门向非农业部门的村庄转移。在探索中国一个县贫困人口的新行政数据集时，我们发现，该项目主要是由工资收入的增加驱动的，参与者的收入显著增加了9.61%。实证结果与roy模型的观点一致，即在非农部门具有比较优势的农村家庭可以从搬迁到附近城镇中获益。本研究提供了新的证据，表明农村地区即使在较小的地理范围内也存在跨部门流动障碍。成本效益分析结果表明，在偏远农村地区搬迁家庭是克服这种流动障碍的可行政策工具。

 

 

 

4.The effect of traffic cameras on police effort: Evidence from India

交通摄像头对警察工作的影响:来自印度的证据

Emily Conover, Daniel Kraynak, Prakarsh Singh

Using a novel data set on CCTV cameras in Chandigarh, India, we test whether police officers’ effort changes in response to the presence of traffic cameras. Although the cameras are useful in sanctioning drivers, they can also capture the passive (shirking) or active (rent-seeking) corruption of officers. Accounting for the spatial and temporal variations in the operation of the cameras, we find that the presence of a functioning camera results in an increase in on-the-ground tickets. Although we do not rule out possible decreases in rent-seeking behavior, a decline in passive corruption appears to be driving the increase in officer ticketing behavior, particularly for the most common vehicles and violations that can be observed from the CCTV cameras. Our findings indicate that remote monitoring technology can serve, if not a substitute for, then as a complement to on-the-ground enforcement.

利用印度昌迪加尔闭路电视摄像头的一组新数据，我们测试了警察的努力是否会随着交通摄像头的出现而改变。虽然摄像头在制裁司机方面很有用，但它们也可以捕捉到警察被动(逃避)或主动(寻租)的腐败行为。考虑到摄像机操作的空间和时间变化，我们发现功能摄像机的存在导致了地面门票的增加。虽然我们不排除寻租行为可能减少的可能性，但被动腐败的减少似乎推动了警官开罚单行为的增加，特别是对最常见的车辆和从闭路电视摄像头中可以观察到的违规行为。我们的研究结果表明，远程监控技术即使不能替代，也可以作为对实地执法的补充。

 

 

 

5.Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market

新兴市场的特殊冲击和总体波动

Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini, Damiano Sandri

This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile. We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.

本文利用智利公司的机密数据首次评估了特殊冲击对新兴市场总体波动的贡献。我们发现，特质冲击对总销售额波动的影响超过40%。尽管智利的市场集中度较高，但这一贡献比以往以发达经济体为基础的研究中记录的要小。我们发现，这一发现可以解释为，大公司的波动性较小，在智利公司之间的传播效应较弱。

 

 

 

6.The short-lived effects of unconditional cash transfers to refugees

无条件向难民转移现金的短期影响

Onur Altındağ, Stephen D. O’Connell

We study two year-long unconditional cash-based assistance programs for Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and show that they improve consumption, child well-being, food security, and reduce livelihood coping. Despite high transfer values, we find no evidence of lasting effects at six months after either program ends. Households spend transfers on basic needs and take children out of work and re-enroll them in school. Beneficiaries increase cash savings and their stock of durable goods, but liquidate and spend these assets during or soon after the beneficiary period. The results are similar for longer assistance periods and across transfer modalities.

我们对在黎巴嫩的叙利亚难民进行了为期两年的无条件现金援助项目研究，发现这些项目改善了消费、儿童福利、粮食安全，并减少了生计应对。尽管转移价值很高，但我们没有发现任何证据表明在两个项目结束后6个月内存在持久影响。家庭将转移支付用于基本需求，让儿童失业并让他们重新入学。受益人增加现金储蓄和耐用品库存，但在受益人期间或之后不久将这些资产变现和支出。对于较长的援助期和不同的转移方式，结果是相似的。

 

 

 

7.Sanitation and property tax compliance: Analyzing the social contract in Brazil

卫生和财产税的遵守:分析巴西的社会契约

Evan Plous Kresch, Mark Walker, Michael Carlos Best, François Gerard, Joana Naritom

This paper investigates the role that sanitation plays in upholding the social contract, whereby citizens pay taxes in exchange for governments providing goods and services. We study the case of Manaus, Brazil, where sewer connections vary considerably across the city and property taxes are calculated in a presumptive manner that does not account for a household’s access to sanitation. We find that households with access to the city sewer system are significantly more likely to pay their property tax, relative to households that only have access to latrines or lack access to improved sanitation entirely. Our evidence is consistent with a role for the social contract in this decision, as households with sewer systems are more likely to have positive attitudes towards the municipal government.

Evan Plous Kresch, Mark Walker, Michael Carlos Best, François Gerard, Joana Naritom

本文调查了卫生设施在维护社会契约中的作用，即公民缴纳税款，以换取政府提供商品和服务。我们研究了巴西玛瑙斯(Manaus)的情况，该市的下水道接驳情况在全市范围内存在很大差异，财产税的计算方式是假定的，没有考虑到一个家庭获得卫生设施的情况。我们发现，与只有厕所或完全没有改善过的卫生设施的家庭相比，能够使用城市下水道系统的家庭明显更有可能缴纳财产税。我们的证据与社会契约在这一决定中的作用是一致的，因为有下水道系统的家庭更有可能对市政府持积极态度。

 

 

 

8.Knowledge, stigma, and HIV testing: An analysis of a widespread HIV/AIDS program

知识、耻辱和艾滋病毒检测:对广泛传播的艾滋病毒/艾滋病项目的分析

Research article only

Knowledge, stigma, and HIV testing: An analysis of a widespread HIV/AIDS program

Dean Yang, James Allen, Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell, Hang Yu

Using randomized methodologies, we study a common community HIV/AIDS program that seeks to promote HIV testing by improving knowledge and reducing stigmatizing attitudes. Contrary to expectations, the program has a substantial negative effect on HIV testing rates. We provide evidence of likely mechanisms behind the program’s negative effect: it inadvertently increased misinformation about HIV transmission methods, and worsened HIV-related stigmatizing attitudes. Subsequent household-level randomized treatments providing correct information and addressing stigma concerns counteract the program’s negative effect on HIV testing. These findings highlight the importance of improving knowledge and alleviating stigma concerns when promoting HIV testing.

我们采用随机方法研究了一个共同的社区艾滋病项目，该项目旨在通过提高知识和减少污名化态度来促进艾滋病检测。与预期相反，该计划对艾滋病毒检测率产生了实质性的负面影响。我们提供了该项目负面影响背后可能机制的证据:它无意中增加了关于艾滋病毒传播方法的错误信息，并恶化了与艾滋病毒有关的污名化态度。随后的家庭随机治疗提供了正确的信息，并解决了污名问题，抵消了该项目对艾滋病毒检测的负面影响。这些发现强调了在推广艾滋病毒检测时提高知识和减轻污名问题的重要性。

 

 

 

9.The effect of forest access on the market for fuelwood in India

进入森林对印度薪柴市场的影响

Branko Bošković, Ujjayant Chakravorty, Martino Pelli, Anna Risch

Fuelwood collection by poor people is often cited as the most important cause of deforestation in developing countries. Using household survey data from India, we show that households located farther away from the forest spend more time in fuelwood collection. These households are likely to sell more fuelwood and buy less. That is, reduced access to forests increases fuelwood collection and sale. This counter-intuitive behavior is triggered by the higher fixed costs of households living farther from the forest arising from larger travel times. By combining two different datasets, we can quantify net fuelwood sales out of a village. We show that a fifth of the fuelwood collected is consumed outside of rural areas, in nearby towns and cities. Our estimates suggest that fuelwood burning may account for roughly 14%–20% of the typical daily PM2.5 load in a city like New Delhi.

穷人采集薪材经常被认为是发展中国家森林砍伐的最重要原因。利用印度的家庭调查数据，我们发现，距离森林较远的家庭花更多的时间收集薪柴。这些家庭可能会出售更多的薪材而减少购买。也就是说，减少对森林的利用增加了薪材的收集和销售。这种反直觉的行为是由居住在远离森林的家庭因旅行时间增加而增加的固定成本引发的。通过结合两个不同的数据集，我们可以量化一个村庄的薪材净销售额。我们发现，收集到的木柴中有五分之一是在农村以外的地区，在附近的城镇和城市消耗的。我们的估计表明，在新德里这样的城市，燃烧木柴可能占PM2.5典型日负荷的14%-20%。

 

 

 

10.The deep roots of rebellion

叛乱的深层根源

Gaia Narciso, Battista Severgnini

This paper analyzes the triggers of rebellion and documents the historical roots of conflict using a unique dataset at the individual level. Drawing on evidence from the Famine (1845–1850) and its effect on the Irish Revolution (1916–1921), we show how negative shocks can explain social unrest in the long run. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of surnames, which enables the study of socio-cultural persistence over time. The instrumental variable analysis based on the wind direction that determined the spread of the potato blight that caused the Famine provides further evidence in support of the legacy of rebellion.

本文利用个体层面的独特数据集，分析了叛乱的触发因素，并记录了冲突的历史根源。根据饥荒(1845-1850)及其对爱尔兰革命(1916-1921)的影响，我们展示了负面冲击如何在长期内解释社会动荡。对姓氏的分析证实了这些发现，这使研究社会文化的持久性成为可能。基于决定了引起饥荒的马铃薯疫病传播的风向的工具变量分析，为叛乱的遗产提供了进一步的证据。

 

 

 

11.Locking crops to unlock investment: Experimental evidence on warrantage in Burkina Faso

Clara Delavallade, Susan Godlonton

Warrantage is an innovative model of rural finance with the potential to overcome credit, crop storage, and behavioral constraints through a localized inventory credit system. Using a randomized controlled trial varying household level access to warrantage, we measure its impacts among households interested in participating. Among treated households, take-up of storage is high, while credit take-up is moderate. Treated households primarily store grains sell their production over an extended period, at a time when prices are higher resulting in higher sales revenue. Increased incomes are spent on long-term investments, including education, livestock, and agricultural inputs for the subsequent year.

担保是农村金融的一种创新模式，有潜力通过本地化的库存信贷制度克服信贷、作物储存和行为约束。通过一项随机对照试验，改变家庭获得担保的水平，我们衡量其对有意参与的家庭的影响。在被治疗的家庭中，存储占用很高，而信贷占用适中。被处理的家庭主要储存谷物，在价格较高的时候出售其生产的粮食，从而增加销售收入。增加的收入用于下一年的长期投资，包括教育、牲畜和农业投入。

 

 

 

12.Production and persistence of criminal skills: Evidence from a high-crime context

犯罪技能的产生和持续:来自高犯罪率背景的证据

Maria A. Escobar, Santiago Tobón, Martín Vanegas-Arias

We study criminal skills production and persistence by looking at the universe of incarceration spells and violent and non-violent property crime reports in Colombia. Leveraging detailed and geo-coded information, we find that property crime reports are higher around prisons on the days inmates are released. Two types of offenders drive the impacts: (i) property crime specialists—inmates with a prior conviction for violent or non-violent theft; and (ii) trainees—inmates with different criminal records but who interacted heavily with specialists during incarceration. We examine whether participation in rehabilitation programs or longer prison spells mitigate these effects and find no evidence for either type of offender. Although we are unaware of how many crimes these offenders would commit absent incarceration, these results suggest that incarceration’s specific deterrence or rehabilitation effects might be weak for these populations and that, in some circumstances, prison can foster rather than prevent crime.

我们研究了犯罪技能的产生和持续通过观察监禁期以及哥伦比亚的暴力和非暴力财产犯罪报告。利用详细的地理编码信息，我们发现在囚犯被释放的那天，监狱附近的财产犯罪报告更高。两类罪犯推动了这种影响:(i)财产犯罪专家——有暴力或非暴力盗窃前科的囚犯;以及(ii)受训人员——有不同犯罪记录但在监禁期间与专家互动频繁的囚犯。我们研究了是否参与康复计划或更长的刑期减轻了这些影响，并没有发现任何证据表明这两种类型的罪犯。虽然我们不知道这些罪犯在没有监禁的情况下会犯下多少罪行，但这些结果表明，监禁的特定威慑或康复效果可能对这些人口来说很弱，在某些情况下，监狱可以促进而不是预防犯罪。

 

 

 

13.Manufacturing employment and women’s agency: Evidence from Lesotho 2004–2014

Louise Grogan

This paper examines the impact of manufacturing employment on women’s health and decision-making power within households in Lesotho. Under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000, the employment of women in ready-made garment (RMG) factories in new industrial zones greatly increased. Subsequent shocks to international demand for textile products created by the phase-out of the Multi-Fibre Agreement and the 2008 Financial Crisis temporarily reduced well-paid RMG work opportunities. Women residing closer to the industrial zones were particularly affected. These changes are exploited for identification of causal impacts. Employment in the RMG sector is found to substantially increase women’s say in decisions about the allocation of household resources and own health.

本文研究了莱索托制造业就业对妇女健康和家庭内决策权的影响。根据2000年美国《非洲增长与机会法案》，妇女在新工业区成衣工厂的就业大大增加。由于多纤维协议的逐步取消和2008年的金融危机，国际纺织产品需求随后受到冲击，这暂时减少了RMG的高薪工作机会。居住在工业区附近的妇女尤其受到影响。这些变化被用来识别因果影响。据发现，RMG部门的就业大大增加了妇女在分配家庭资源和自身健康方面的决定中的发言权。

 

 

 

14.Are age-of-marriage laws enforced? Evidence from developing countries

婚龄法执行了吗?来自发展中国家的证据

Matthew Collin, Theodore Talbot

Child marriage is associated with negative outcomes for women and girls. Many countries have raised the legal age of marriage, but the incidence of early marriage remains high. We propose a simple test for whether laws are effective in deterring early marriage and apply it to data from both the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) covering over 100 countries using statistical tests derived from the regression discontinuity literature. By this measure, many countries are not enforcing the laws on their books, and enforcement may be not be improving over time. We argue that survey data provides a simple way to test if laws are being enforced and are binding, and interpret our results to show that legal change needs to be accompanied by better enforcement and greater monitoring to be effective.

童婚与妇女和女孩的负面后果有关。许多国家已经提高了法定结婚年龄，但早婚的发生率仍然很高。我们提出了一个简单的检验方法，以检验法律是否有效地阻止早婚，并将其应用于涵盖100多个国家的人口与健康调查(DHS)和多指标类集调查(MICS)的数据，这些数据使用了来自断点回归文献的统计检验。通过这一措施，许多国家没有执行其账面上的法律，执法可能没有随着时间的推移而改善。我们认为，调查数据提供了一种简单的方法来测试法律是否得到执行和是否具有约束力，并解释了我们的结果，以表明法律变化需要更好的执行和更大的监督才能有效。

 

 

 

15.Religious leaders and rule of law

宗教领袖和法治

Sultan Mehmood, Avner Seror

In this paper, we provide systematic evidence of how historical religious institutions affect the rule of law. In a difference-in-differences framework, we show that districts in Pakistan where the historical presence of religious institutions is higher, rule of law is worse. This deterioration is economically significant, persistent, and likely explained by religious leaders gaining political office. We explain these findings with a model where religious leaders leverage their high legitimacy to run for office and subvert the Courts. We test for and find no evidence supporting several competing explanations: the rise of secular wealthy landowners, dynastic political leaders and changes in voter attitudes are unable to account for the patterns in the data. Our estimates indicate that religious leaders expropriate rents through the legal system amounting to about 0.06 percent of GDP every year.

在本文中，我们提供了历史宗教制度如何影响法治的系统证据。在双重差分框架中，我们展示了巴基斯坦历史上宗教机构存在程度较高、法治较差的地区。这种恶化在经济上是显著的、持续的，可能的原因是宗教领袖获得了政治职位。我们用一个模型来解释这些发现，在这个模型中，宗教领袖利用他们的高合法性来竞选公职，并颠覆法院。我们对几种相互矛盾的解释进行了测试，但没有发现支持这些解释的证据:世俗富裕地主的崛起、王朝政治领袖和选民态度的变化都无法解释数据中的模式。我们的估计表明，宗教领袖通过法律制度征收的租金每年约占GDP的0.06%。

 

 

 

16. The cost of fear: Impact of violence risk on child health during conflict

恐惧的代价:冲突期间暴力风险对儿童健康的影响

Augustin Tapsoba

The fear of exposure to conflict events often triggers changes in the behavior of economic agents even before/without any manifestation of violence in a given area. It generates a treatment status (exposure to the adverse effects of conflict) that goes beyond violence incidence. This paper develops a new approach to capture such treatment. Violence is modeled as a space–time stochastic process with an unknown underlying distribution that is backed out of the observed pattern of conflict events. A new risk measure is built from this density and used to evaluate the impact of conflict on child health using data from Ivory Coast and Uganda. The empirical evidence suggests that conflict is a local public bad, with cohorts of children exposed to high risk of violence equally suffering major health setbacks even when this risk does not materialize in violent events around them.

即使在某一地区未发生任何暴力行为之前，由于害怕受到冲突事件的影响，经济行动者的行为往往也会发生变化。它产生了一种超越暴力发生率的治疗状态(暴露于冲突的不利影响)。本文开发了一种新的方法来捕获这种处理。暴力被建模为时空随机过程，具有未知的潜在分布，这与观察到的冲突事件模式不同。根据这一密度建立了一种新的风险衡量标准，并使用科特迪瓦和乌干达的数据评估冲突对儿童健康的影响。经验证据表明，冲突对当地公众是一件坏事，暴露于高暴力风险的儿童群体同样在健康方面遭受重大挫折，即使在他们周围的暴力事件中没有出现这种风险。

 

 

 

17.Privatization of public goods: Evidence from the sanitation sector in Senegal

公共物品私有化:来自塞内加尔卫生部门的证据

Joshua W. Deutschmann, Jared Gars, Jean-François Houde, Molly Lipscomb, Laura Schechter

Privatization of a public good (the management of sewage treatment centers in Dakar, Senegal) leads to an increase in the productivity of downstream sewage dumping companies and a decrease in downstream prices of the services they provide to households. We use the universe of legal dumping of sanitation waste from May 2009 to May 2018 to show that legal dumping increased substantially following privatization—on average an increase of 74%, or an increase of about 1640 trips to treatment centers each month. This is due to increased productivity of all trucks, not just those associated with the company managing the privatized treatment centers. Household-level survey data shows that downstream prices of legal sanitary dumping decreased by 5% following privatization, and DHS data shows that diarrhea rates among children under five decreased in Dakar relative to secondary cities in Senegal following privatization with no similar effect on respiratory illness as a placebo.

 

 

 

18. Political uncertainty and the forms of state capture

政治上的不确定性和国家占领的形式

Nathan Canen, Rafael Ch, Leonard Wantchekon

This paper studies when and why firms prefer more direct forms of state capture (i.e., directly capturing tenured state officials who implement policy, as bureaucrats) to more indirect ones (i.e., using intermediaries, such as elected officials, to influence bureaucrats). First, we propose a principal–agent model under political uncertainty. Firms can induce market distortions by making transfers to incumbents, but such incumbents may be displaced in an election. Direct capture acts as an insurance for the firm, guaranteeing that its paid for distortions are kept in place even when the incumbent loses. We then show that policies thought to decrease state capture, such as improved bureaucrat selection, can have little to no effect once substitution towards indirect control is accounted for. We test the model’s predictions using a novel database on contractual arrangements between politicians, political brokers and businessmen in Benin. As proposed by the theory, we find that an increase in political uncertainty is associated with an increase in direct forms of capture. We conclude that electoral competition is not a sufficient mechanism to curb firms’ control of government when they can switch forms of state capture.

本文研究了企业何时以及为何更倾向于直接形式的国家捕获(即直接捕获执行政策的终身国家官员，即官僚)，而不是更间接形式的国家捕获(即利用选举官员等中介机构影响官僚)。首先，我们提出了一个政治不确定性下的委托代理模型。企业可以通过向在职者转移资金来诱导市场扭曲，但这些在职者可能会在选举中被取代。直接缴获为企业提供了一种保险，保证其为扭曲行为支付的费用即使在在位者败诉时也能保持不变。然后，我们表明，一旦考虑到对间接控制的替代，被认为可以减少国家控制的政策，如改进的官僚选择，可能会几乎没有效果。我们使用贝宁政治家、政治经纪人和商人之间的合同安排的新数据库来检验模型的预测。正如该理论所提出的，我们发现政治不确定性的增加与直接捕获形式的增加有关。我们的结论是，当企业可以转换政府占有的形式时，选举竞争并不是抑制企业对政府控制的充分机制。

 

 

 

19.Pains, guns and moves: The effect of the U.S. opioid epidemic on Mexican migration

Gianmarco Daniele, Marco Le Moglie, Federico Masera

In this paper, we study how a positive economic shock to an illicit industry might foster migration. In 2010, a series of reforms to the U.S. health care system resulted in a shift in demand from legal opiates to heroin. This demand shock had considerable effects on Mexico, the main supplier of heroin consumed in the United States. We exploit variation in potential opium production at the municipal level in a difference-in-differences (DID) framework, which compares Mexican municipalities with different amounts of opium-suitable land before and after 2010. We find that people fled out of municipalities more suitable for opium production, many to areas close to the U.S. border and into the United States. This is due to the increase in violence and conflicts, as municipalities more suitable for opium became highly valuable to drug cartels. Overall, almost 95,000 people migrate within Mexico and 22,000 emigrate to the United States.

在本文中，我们研究了对非法行业的积极经济冲击如何促进移民。2010年，美国医疗体系的一系列改革导致对鸦片类药物的需求从合法转向海洛因。这种需求冲击对墨西哥产生了相当大的影响，墨西哥是美国消费的海洛因的主要供应国。我们利用双重差分(difference-in-difference, DID)框架，对墨西哥各城市在2010年前后拥有不同数量的适合种植鸦片的土地进行了比较，从而揭示了各城市潜在鸦片产量的变化。我们发现，人们逃离了更适合生产鸦片的城市，许多人逃到了靠近美国边境的地区，并进入了美国。这是由于暴力和冲突的增加，因为更适合种植鸦片的城市对贩毒集团来说变得非常有价值。总体而言，近9.5万人在墨西哥境内移民，2.2万人移民到美国。

 

 

 

20.Persuading voters to punish corrupt vote-buying candidates: Experimental evidence from a large-scale radio campaign in India

说服选民惩罚腐败的贿选候选人:来自印度一场大规模广播竞选活动的实验证据

Laura Schechter, Srinivasan Vasudevan

During the 2014 Indian general elections, we carried out a large-scale experiment randomizing a radio campaign highlighting the disadvantages of voting for corrupt vote-buying candidates. Official electoral data show that the radio campaign significantly decreased the vote share of parties that engaged in the most vote buying (as reported by journalists). Voter survey data show that the campaign increased the salience of corruption as an election issue and decreased voting for parties that offered gifts. From a policy perspective, we show that radio campaigns are a cost-effective method to influence voter behavior. From a measurement perspective, we show that journalist interviews can impartially identify vote-buying parties.

在2014年印度大选期间，我们进行了一项大规模实验，随机安排了一场广播竞选活动，强调投票给贿选候选人的弊端。官方选举数据显示，电台竞选活动大大减少了(如记者报道的)购买选票最多的政党的选票份额。选民调查数据显示，竞选活动增加了腐败作为选举问题的重要性，并减少了对提供礼物的政党的投票。从政策的角度来看，我们表明无线电竞选是影响选民行为的一种成本效益高的方法。从测量的角度，我们表明记者采访能够公正地识别贿选政党。

 

 

 

21.Trade-induced competition and ownership dynamics

贸易引发的竞争和所有权动态

Qing Hu, Wenjing Li, Chen Lin, Lai Wei

This paper documents a causal effect of trade-induced competition on firms’ ownership dynamics using the largest trade liberalization China has experienced, its accession to the World Trade Organization. By exploiting varying degrees of tariff reductions across industries, we find that firms that are more affected by competitive shocks experience a larger relative increase in their foreign ownership compared with those less affected. In addition, we find a stronger (weaker) effect for firms with a greater (lesser) demand for external financing and technology, which indicates the strategic role of foreign shareholders in empowering domestic firms to obtain financing and new technologies in a competitive market.

本文以中国加入世界贸易组织这一最大的贸易自由化为例，研究了贸易竞争对企业所有权动态的因果影响。通过利用各行业不同程度的关税削减，我们发现，与受竞争冲击影响较小的企业相比，受竞争冲击影响较大的企业的外资所有权相对增加更大。此外，我们还发现，外部融资和技术需求越高(越低)的企业，外资股东对内资企业在竞争市场中获得融资和新技术的战略作用越强(越弱)。

 

 

 

22.The political impacts of land expropriation in China

中国土地征收的政治影响

Wenbiao Sha

I study the political consequences of state expropriation of agricultural land in rural China by using national individual-level panel data for the period 2010–2018. Comparing outcomes before and after expropriation with changes among individuals not experiencing expropriation, I find that having one’s land expropriated decreases individuals’ trust towards local government officials, and increases the incidence of having conflicts with local government officials. I also provide evidence that the adverse political impacts can be mitigated by better local governance, undertaking projects with public benefits, and ex-ante non-agricultural employment.

本文利用2010-2018年的全国个人层面面板数据，研究了中国农村土地征收的政治后果。通过比较土地被征收前后与未被征收个体的变化，本文发现，土地被征收降低了个体对地方政府官员的信任，增加了与地方政府官员发生冲突的概率。我还提供了证据表明，通过更好的地方治理、开展具有公共利益的项目和事先的非农就业，可以缓解不利的政治影响。

 

 

 

23.The more the poorer? Resource sharing and scale economies in large families

越多越穷?资源共享与大家庭规模经济

Rossella Calvi, Jacob Penglase, Denni Tommasi, Alexander Wolf

In large families, individuals must share resources with many others but may benefit from economies of scale. This paper studies individual consumption in different types of households, with a focus on family structures that are common in developing countries. Based on a collective household model, we develop a methodology to identify intra-household resource allocation and the extent of joint consumption. Unlike existing approaches, we do not require consumption data on single-person households, which are rare in low-income countries. We illustrate our methodology using data from Bangladesh and Mexico. We document intra-household consumption inequality in both countries and substantial economies of scale in consumption in Mexico but not Bangladesh. Using our estimates, we then compute poverty rates for men, women, and children. Contrary to existing poverty calculations that ignore either intra-household inequality or economies of scale in consumption, ours account for both dimensions.

在大家庭中，个人必须与许多人分享资源，但可以从规模经济中获益。本文研究了不同类型家庭的个人消费，重点关注发展中国家普遍存在的家庭结构。基于一个集体家庭模型，我们开发了一种方法来确定家庭内部的资源配置和共同消费的程度。与现有方法不同，我们不要求提供单身家庭的消费数据，这在低收入国家很少见。我们使用孟加拉国和墨西哥的数据来说明我们的方法。我们记录了这两个国家的家庭内部消费不平等，以及墨西哥在消费方面的巨大规模经济，但孟加拉国没有。然后，根据我们的估计，我们计算出男性、女性和儿童的贫困率。与现有的忽略家庭内部不平等或消费规模经济的贫困计算相反，我们的计算考虑了这两个方面。

 

 

 

24.Conflict and reciprocity: A study with Palestinian youths

冲突与互惠:对巴勒斯坦青年的研究

Elisa Cavatorta, Daniel John Zizzo, Yousef Daoud

This paper studies how reciprocity in the forms of conditional cooperation and vindictive behavior is affected by differential exposure to conflict. We use experimental games to measure preferences of adolescents living in the West Bank, and their obligation to cross military checkpoints to go to school as a proxy for differential exposure to the conflict. We find that adolescents who have an obligation to cross military checkpoints to go to school engage in more reciprocal behavior: they more frequently cooperate in response to cooperative behavior and retaliate against hostile behavior. Part of the effect is explained by changes in the beliefs about their peers’ behavior. A re-analysis of micro-datasets from other conflict contexts provides evidence of the generalizability of our results.

本文研究了不同冲突暴露程度对有条件合作和报复行为形式的互惠行为的影响。我们使用实验游戏来衡量生活在约旦河西岸的青少年的偏好，以及他们穿越军事检查站去上学的义务，作为冲突暴露的差异的代理。我们发现，有义务穿越军事检查站去上学的青少年会有更多的互惠行为:他们更频繁地对合作行为进行合作，对敌对行为进行报复。这种影响的部分原因是他们对同伴行为的信念发生了变化。对来自其他冲突环境的微观数据集的重新分析为我们的结果的一般性提供了证据。

 

 

 

25.Understanding the effects of racial classification in Apartheid South Africa

了解种族隔离的南非种族分类的影响

Miquel Pellicer, Vimal Ranchhod

The apartheid era began in 1948 in South Africa, and was implemented by passing several racially discriminatory laws. Most of the key legislative changes were introduced between 1949 and 1953. The cornerstone of this racially stratified legal system was the Population Registration Act of 1950, which required that all South Africans needed to be registered and assigned to an official racial category. We study the effect of racial classification in the context of these legislative reforms, by estimating the causal effect of being classified as White, relative to being classified as Coloured, on labour market outcomes. For identification we exploit a policy change that privileged ancestry over appearance in the process of racial classification for those born after 1951. Using census data from 1980, 1991, and 1996, we find a discontinuity in racial shares for cohorts born after 1951. Our preferred estimates indicate that being classified as White resulted in a more than fourfold increase in income for men. This corresponds to over 90% of the difference in mean incomes between men in the two population groups. Our findings for women are inconclusive.

南非的种族隔离时代始于1948年，并通过了几项种族歧视法律来实施。大多数关键的立法变化是在1949年至1953年之间引入的。这种按种族分层的法律制度的基石是1950年的《人口登记法》，该法案要求所有南非人都必须进行登记，并被划入一个正式的种族类别。我们研究了在这些立法改革的背景下，种族分类的影响，通过估计被归类为白人相对于被归类为有色人种对劳动力市场结果的因果影响。在身份识别方面，我们利用了一项政策变化，即在种族分类过程中，1951年以后出生的人优先考虑血统而不是外貌。利用1980年、1991年和1996年的人口普查数据，我们发现1951年以后出生的群体在种族份额上存在不连续性。我们的首选估计表明，被归类为白人导致男性收入增加了四倍多。这相当于两类人群中男性平均收入差异的90%以上。我们对女性的研究结果是不确定的。

 

 

 

26.Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict

武器与战争:武器转让对国内冲突的影响

Quentin Gallea

Despite the fact that weapons are necessary for conflicts, it remains unclear if weapons availability itself causes conflict. I use historical links between arms exporters and importers, and shocks to conflict engagement of the exporters, to instrument the volume of arms imports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that arms imports in Africa increase the likelihood of internal conflict, in particular one-sided violence, the number of fighter and civilian deaths, as well as the number of refugees fleeing the country. The results suggest that arms exporters have the ability to influence violence with their trade. Even if stopping exports might only postpone violence until more weapons are found, the momentary reduced violence could open a window to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful resolution.

 

 

 

27.Public health departments and the mortality transition in Latin America: Evidence from Puerto Rico

公共卫生部门与拉丁美洲的死亡率过渡:来自波多黎各的证据

Brian Marein

This paper examines the role of public health in reducing mortality prior to modern medicine by studying Puerto Rico in the early 20th century. From 1930 to 1960, Puerto Rico experienced one of the fastest increases in life expectancy in history and completed the first mortality transition outside of Europe and Western offshoots. Using municipal-level data in an event study framework, I show that public health units (county health departments) caused around half of the reduction in infant and tuberculosis mortality from 1923 to 1945, without significantly increasing public expenditures. Public health units also reduced maternal mortality and stillbirths. I present descriptive evidence that more assistant midwives per capita correspond to larger declines in maternal mortality, suggesting the importance of the training of midwives by health units. This investigation provides a window into Latin America more broadly, since most countries in Latin America subsequently adopted public health units.

本文通过研究20世纪早期的波多黎各，探讨了在现代医学之前，公共卫生在降低死亡率方面的作用。从1930年到1960年，波多黎各经历了历史上预期寿命增长最快的时期之一，并完成了欧洲和西方分支以外的第一次死亡率转型。利用事件研究框架中的市级数据，我表明，公共卫生单位(县卫生部门)在1923年至1945年期间导致婴儿和结核病死亡率下降的一半左右，但没有显著增加公共支出。公共卫生机构还减少了产妇死亡率和死胎。我提出的描述性证据表明，人均助理助产士人数越多，产妇死亡率下降的幅度就越大，这表明卫生单位对助产士进行培训的重要性。这项调查为更广泛地了解拉丁美洲提供了一个窗口，因为大多数拉丁美洲国家随后都建立了公共卫生机构。

 

 

 

28.A hybrid approach to targeting social assistance

以社会援助为目标的混合方法

Lendie Follett, Heath Henderson

Proxy means testing (PMT) and community-based targeting (CBT) are two of the leading methods for targeting social assistance in developing countries. We present a hybrid targeting method that incorporates CBT’s emphasis on local information and preferences with PMT’s reliance on verifiable indicators. Specifically, we outline a Bayesian framework for targeting that resembles PMT in that beneficiary selection is based on a weighted sum of sociodemographic characteristics, but we instead propose calibrating the weights to preference rankings from community targeting exercises. We discuss several practical extensions to the model, including a generalization to multiple rankings per community, an adjustment for elite capture, a method for incorporating auxiliary information on potential beneficiaries, and a dynamic updating procedure. We further provide an empirical illustration using data from Burkina Faso and Indonesia, which shows that our method achieves error rates lower than what PMT achieves when targeting household expenditures.

在发展中国家，替代性经济状况调查(PMT)和社区定向(CBT)是确定社会援助目标的两种主要方法。我们提出了一种混合目标方法，该方法结合了CBT对本地信息和偏好的强调和PMT对可验证指标的依赖。具体而言，我们概述了一个类似于PMT的目标定位贝叶斯框架，因为受益人选择是基于社会人口特征的加权总和，但我们建议校准社区目标定位练习中的权重偏好排名。我们讨论了该模型的几个实际扩展，包括每个社区多个排名的泛化、精英捕获的调整、关于潜在受益人的辅助信息的合并方法以及动态更新程序。我们进一步利用布基纳法索和印度尼西亚的数据进行了实证分析，结果表明，当以家庭支出为目标时，我们的方法的错误率低于PMT方法。

 

 

 

29.Motivating bureaucrats with behavioral insights when state capacity is weak: Evidence from large-scale field experiments in Peru

当政府能力薄弱时，用行为洞察力激励官僚:来自秘鲁大规模实地实验的证据

Andrew Dustan, Juan Manuel Hernandez-Agramonte, Stanislao Maldonado

We study how text messages incorporating behavioral insights can be used as a tool to affect civil servant performance when state capacity is weak. By experimentally varying the content of a messaging campaign targeted to civil servants implementing a school maintenance program in Peru, we test the effectiveness of reminders and treatments making salient either monitoring, social norms, the possibility of public disclosure of noncompliance, or audit risk. All messaging treatments improve compliance by similar magnitudes, increasing the probability of submitting a key expense report by an average of 3.9 percentage points over a base of 74%. The inability of this large-scale experiment to detect differential impacts by treatment arm is consistent with timely reminders being the main driver of increased compliance. We explore generalizability across time and populations in two supplemental experiments, confirming the promise of such campaigns to improve civil servant performance when the state lacks enforcement capacity.

我们研究了在政府能力较弱的情况下，结合行为洞察力的短信如何被用作影响公务员绩效的工具。通过实验性地改变针对秘鲁实施学校维护计划的公务员的信息传递活动的内容，我们测试了提醒和治疗的有效性，这些提醒和治疗突出了监测、社会规范、公开披露不合规行为的可能性或审计风险。所有消息传递处理都以类似的幅度提高了合规程度，在74%的基础上平均增加了3.9个百分点提交关键费用报告的可能性。这项大规模实验无法检测治疗臂的差异影响，这与及时提醒是增加依从性的主要驱动力是一致的。我们在两个补充实验中探索了跨时间和人口的普遍性，证实了在国家缺乏执法能力的情况下，这种运动有希望提高公务员的绩效。

 

 

 

30.Financial market responses to a natural disaster: Evidence from credit networks and the Indian Ocean tsunami

金融市场对自然灾害的反应:来自信贷网络和印度洋海啸的证据

Kristina Czura, Stefan Klonner

We examine changes in financial allocations in Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (Roscas), a popular group-based financial institution world-wide, in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. With financial data from locations along the South Indian coast we estimate the causal effect of this major natural disaster on financial flows between occupational groups, the price of credit and other loan characteristics. We find that the supply of funds in these credit networks remained remarkably stable, while demand by small and medium-scale entrepreneurs increased significantly. In response, substantial funds were channeled from wage-employed members and commercial investors to entrepreneurs. We conclude that natural disasters affect individuals with substantial heterogeneity and that the Roscas we study offer more scope for gains from trade in response to a seemingly aggregate shock than commonly assumed for traditional credit and insurance networks.

我们考察了2004年印度洋海啸之后，全球流行的以团体为基础的金融机构——轮流储蓄和信贷协会(Roscas)的财政分配的变化。利用来自南印度海岸地区的金融数据，我们估计了这场重大自然灾害对职业群体之间的金融流动、信贷价格和其他贷款特征的因果影响。我们发现，这些信贷网络中的资金供给保持了显著的稳定，而中小企业家的资金需求显著增加。作为回应，大量资金从雇佣工资的成员和商业投资者流向企业家。我们的结论是，自然灾害对个体的影响具有很大的异质性，我们所研究的Roscas在应对看似总体的冲击时提供了比通常假设的传统信贷和保险网络更大的贸易收益空间。