外刊精读| week.7 繁荣的非人工智能经济| The Booming Non

Booming Non-AI Economy

Ten months ago the spectre of recession haunted corporate America. Inflation was rampant, profits were depressed and the Federal Reserve was tightening the screws. Instead, inflation has moderated, the jobs market remains tight and recession is no longer a certainty. The prospect of an elusive "soft landing" has combined with hype over the productivity-boosting promise of artificial intelligence (AI) to give investors a fillip. This year the S&P 500 index of big firms is up by nearly a fifth.

10个月前，经济衰退的恐慌笼罩着美国企业。通货膨胀猖獗，利润下跌，美联储政策收紧。相反，现在通货膨胀放缓， 就业市场依然紧张，经济衰退也不再是板上钉钉的事。尚不确定的“软着陆”前景与人工智能能够刺激生产力的炒作一起，刺激了投资者。今年，标准普尔500大公司指数上涨了接近五分之一。

Markets are especially bullish about a few large technology companies and car-makers. These are among the S&P 500's most AI-obsessed members, according to our early-adopters index (which takes into account factors such as AI-related patents, investments and hiring, see chart 1 on next page). They have done well in the here and now, too: all reported respectable second-quarter results in the latest earnings season, which wraps up soon. But what about the health of the broad swathes of the American economy that are less affected by all the tech hype? Here the picture is more complex, but ultimately reassuring.

市场尤其看好少数的大型科技公司和汽车制造。根据我们早期采用者指数（该指数把例如人工智能相关的专利、投资、和招聘等因素考虑在内，详见下一页表1），这些公司在标准普尔500指数中最看好人工智能。目前他们表现也不错：所有公司在最近第二季度的财报季中都表现优异，全都圆满结束。但是，受科技炒作影响较小的美国经济健康情况如何呢？这里的情况更加复杂，但最终令人放心。

Start with the bad news. Some of the businesses least prepared for an AI future are suffering in the present. Health-care companies look sickly: UBS, a bank, estimates that their profits slumped by nearly 30% compared with last year (see chart 2). CVS Health, a chain of chemists (ranked 218th in our AI index), is slashing 5,000 jobs after its earnings sank by 37%. Energy firms made half as much money in the second quarter of 2023 as they did a year earlier, when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up oil and gas prices. With other commodity prices also down, materials firms' profits fell by 30%.

首先是坏消息。目前，一些未对人工智能未来做好准备的企业正在经历磨难。医疗保健公司目前很恼火：瑞士联合银行估计，相比于去年，他们的利润暴跌近30%（见表2）。连锁药商CVS健康公司（CVS Health）（在我们的人工智能指数中排第218位）收入下降了30%，正在裁员5000人。因为当时俄乌战争，使得石油和天然气价格上涨，能源公司在2023年第二季度的收入近仅为去年的二分之一。由于其他商品价格下降，材料公司的利润也下降了30%。

As a result, overall earnings for S&P 500 firms are estimated to have slid by 5% in the second quarter, year on year, reckons FactSet, a data provider. That is the biggest decline since early in the pandemic.

数据提供商FactSet估计，因此，与去年同期相比，预计标准普尔500指数公司在第二财季的总收入下降了5%。这是从疫情初期以来最大的降幅。

Yet the pain has been concentrated in a handful of sectors. Dig deeper, and much of the non-AI economy looks surprisingly robust. Capital-goods manufacturers, such as Caterpillar and Raytheon (which come in at 204th and 340th in our ranking), are reckoned to have collectively increased their revenues by more than 8% in the second quarter, and their profits by twice as much - perhaps thanks in part to President Joe Biden's taste for industrial policy. Even the oil-and-gas giants are doing better than the headline numbers suggest. The largest of them, ExxonMobil (ranked 236th), made nearly $8bn in net profit - down by 56% year on year but, bar that record-breaking result in 2022, still its highest second-quarter figure in nearly a decade.

然而，痛苦只集中在少数行业。深入挖掘，许多非人工智能经济看起来出奇地强劲。例如卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar） 和雷神公司（Raytheon）（在我们排名中占据第204位和340位）等资本货物制造商，在第二财季总收益增加了8%以上，他们的利润增加了2倍--或许部分原因是得益于拜登总统对于工业的政策。即使是石油和天然气巨头表现也比头条数据显示的要好。其中最大的埃克森美孚石油公司（ExxonMobil ）（排名第236位）的净利润接近80亿美元 - 同比下降了56%，除了2022年破纪录的利润额以外，这依然是近10年中第二财季中最高业绩。

The resilience is perhaps most obvious for businesses with fortunes tied to the condition of the American consumer, who remains in rude health. Pedlars of staples, such as foodstuffs and household goods,saw their profits rise by 5% year on year, according to UBS. For purveyors of non-staple consumer goods, earnings shot up by 40%. On August 1st Starbucks, a coffee-shop colossus (ranked 116th in our AI index), reported a quarterly operating profit of $1.6bn, up by 22%. The next day Kraft Heinz, a seller of ketchup and baked beans (ranked 253rd), said it made $1.4bn in operating profit, two and a half times what it did a year ago.

或许，经济恢复力在与美国消费者状况相关的行业表现最为明显，经济恢复能力仍然强健。根据瑞士联合银行的数据，与去年相比，食物和家居用品销售商的利润增加了5%，副食品供应商的收入猛增了40%。咖啡店巨头星巴克（在我们人工智能指数中排名第116位）在8月1号公布了季度营业额为16亿美元，增幅达到22%。次日，销售番茄酱和番茄酱烘豆的卡夫亨氏公司（排名第253位）表示营业额达到14亿美元，是去年的2.5倍。

Consumer-goods firms have held on to pricing power. Confectioners, for example, are charging 11% more for chocolates than they did last year, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Hershey (331st) has offset the rising cost of cocoa-and then some. Its operating profit rose by 23%, to $561m. PepsiCo (245th) lifted prices of its soft drinks and snacks by15% in the second quarter alone. Its operating profit bubbled up by three-quarters, to $3.7bn. It now expects to increase sales by 10% and net profit by 12% this year, up from an earlier forecast of 8% and 9%, respectively.

消费品公司一直掌握着定价权。例如，根据劳工统计局的数据，甜食产业今年巧克力定价比去去年高11%以上。好时公司（Hershey）（排名331位）抵消了可可和其他原料的涨价，该公司的营业利润增长了23%，达到5.61亿美元。百事公司（排名245位）仅在第二财季基于将其软饮料和小吃提价了15%，其营业利润增长了四分之三，达到37亿美元。现在，该公司预期今年销量增加10% 净利润增加12%，高于早期预测的8%和9%。

Americans aren't just spending on sweets and cola. Air travel is recovering rapidly, particularly for international trips. American Airlines (266th in our AI index), Delta Air Lines (193rd) and United Airlines (183rd) collectively reported net profits of $4.2bn last quarter, the most since 2015. Hotels are inundated with leisure and business travelers. Hilton (a chain ranked a lowly 420th) said that its revenue per available room, a preferred industry measure, was up by 12%, year on year.

美国人不仅在甜食和饮料上消费。航空业也快速恢复中，尤其是国际航空。美国航空公司（在我们人工智能指数中排226名）、德尔塔航空公司（193名）和美国联合航空公司（183名）公布了上一季度总的净利润为42亿美元，这是从2015年以来最高的利润。酒店住满了旅行和出差的客人。希尔顿酒店（连锁酒店，排在420位）称，作为行业首选指标。其没见可用客房的收同比入增加了12%。

How long can the bonanza last? Shoppers are gradually drawing down the savings they accumulated during the pandemic, when they received stimulus cheques from the government but lacked ways to spend them. Between August 2021 and May this year, households spent over $1.5trn of these savings, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

这种繁荣景象能持续多久呢？消费者们的积蓄逐渐减少，这是在疫情期间存下的财富，那时他们收到来自政府的刺激支票，但是没有可以消费的方式。根据旧金山联邦储备银行的数据，在2021年8月到今年5月，家庭支出超过了1.5万亿美元的储蓄。

At that rate they will burn through the $500bn or so they still have before the end of the year. Although unemployment remains near historic lows, at 3.5% in July, wage growth has slowed. The resumption of student-loan repayments in October, after the Supreme Court struck down Mr Biden's plan to cancel some student debts altogether, could see consumer spending fall by as much as $9bn a month, according to Oxford Economics, a consultancy.

按照那样的速率，家庭支出将在年底前消耗掉剩余的5千亿美元左右。尽管失业率保持在历史低点，7月为3.5%，但是工资增幅已经放缓。根据咨询公司牛津经济研究院的数据，最高法院驳回了拜登总统完全取消一些学生贷款的计划，此后在10月恢复偿还学生贷款，消费者支出可能每月下降90亿美元。

If rising interest rates eventually curb demand, firms will find it harder to continue raising prices, leaving margins more vulnerable. Higher rates will also knock businesses with weak balance-sheets. In the first half of this year 340 companies covered by S&P Global, a credit-rating agency, declared bankruptcy, the highest number since 2010. More could suffer a similar fate, especially if a recession does hit.

如果不断上涨的利率最终遏制了需求，企业就会发现很难再继续涨价，利润将减少。更高的利率也会导致企业因为收支不平衡而倒下。今年上半年，信用评级机构标普全球旗下340家公司宣布了破产，这是2010年以来最高的数字。还有许多企业可能面临同样的遭遇，尤其是经济衰退真的发生的话。

That eventuality is not completely out of the question. Goldman Sachs, a bank, thinks there is a 20% chance of a recession in America in the next 12 months. Citi-group, another lender, expects a downturn at the start of 2024. If that happens, not even the AI-friendliest firms will emerge completely unscathed.

这不是不可能发生的事。高盛银行认为，在接下来的12个月里，美国经济衰退的可能性为20%。另一家银行花旗集团预计，2024年初会出现经济下滑。如果发生，即使是人工智能最友好的公司也无法独善其身。