American Economic Review 2023年第8期

American Economic Review 2023年第8期

Vol. 113 No. 8 August 2023

——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独

01.Does Identity Affect Labor Supply?

身份认同影响劳动力供给吗?

How does identity influence economic behavior in the labor market? I investigate this question in rural India, focusing on the effect of caste identity on job-specific labor supply. In a field experiment, laborers choose whether to take up various job offers, which differ in associations with specific castes. Workers are less willing to accept offers that are linked to castes other than their own, especially when those castes rank lower in the social hierarchy. Workers forgo large payments to avoid job offers that conflict with their caste identity, even when these decisions are made in private.

身份认同如何影响劳动力市场中的经济行为?我在印度农村调查了这个问题，重点关注种姓身份对特定工作的劳动力供应的影响。在一项实地实验中，劳动者选择是否接受各种工作机会，这些工作机会与特定的种姓有关。工人们不太愿意接受与自己以外的种姓有关的工作机会，尤其是当这些种姓在社会等级中排名较低的时候。工人们放弃高薪是为了避免与他们的种姓身份相冲突的工作机会，即使这些决定是私下做出的。

02.The Reversal Interest Rate

反转利率

Joseph Abadi

Markus Brunnermeier

Yann Koby

The reversal interest rate is the rate at which accommodative monetary policy reverses and becomes contractionary for lending. We theoretically demonstrate its existence in a macroeconomic model featuring imperfectly competitive banks that face financial frictions. When interest rates are cut too low, further monetary stimulus cuts into banks' profit margins, depressing their net worth and curtailing their credit supply. Similarly, when interest rates are low for too long, the persistent drag on bank profitability eventually outweighs banks' initial capital gains, also stifling credit supply. We quantify the importance of this mechanism within a calibrated New Keynesian model.

逆转利率是指宽松的货币政策发生逆转并导致信贷收缩的利率。我们在一个宏观经济模型中从理论上证明了它的存在，该模型以面临金融摩擦的不完全竞争银行为特征。当利率降得太低时，进一步的货币刺激会削减银行的利润率，压低它们的净值，减少它们的信贷供应。同样，当利率处于低位的时间过长时，对银行盈利能力的持续拖累最终会超过银行最初的资本收益，这也会抑制信贷供应。我们在一个校准的新凯恩斯主义模型中量化了这一机制的重要性。

 

 

03. Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness

个人和组织是国家效能的源泉

Michael Carlos Best 

Jonas Hjort 

David Szakonyi

Bureaucrats implement policy. How important are they for a state's productivity? And do the trade-offs between policies depend on their effectiveness? Using data on 16 million public purchases in Russia, we show that 39 percent of the variation in prices paid for narrowly defined items is due to the individual bureaucrats and organizations who manage procurement. Low-price buyers also display higher spending quality. Theory suggests that such differences in effectiveness can be pivotal for policy design. To illustrate, we show that a common one—bid preferences for domestic suppliers—substantially improves procurement performance, but only when implemented by ineffective bureaucrats.

官僚们执行政策。它们对一个州的生产力有多重要?政策之间的权衡是否取决于它们的有效性?利用俄罗斯1600万笔公共采购的数据，我们发现，在狭义定义的项目上，39%的价格差异是由管理采购的个别官僚和组织造成的。低价买家也表现出更高的消费品质。理论表明，这种有效性差异可能对政策设计至关重要。为了说明这一点，我们展示了对国内供应商的单一投标偏好，但只有在低效的官僚机构实施时，才会大大提高采购绩效。

 

 

04. The Political Economy of International Regulatory Cooperation

国际规制合作的政治经济学

Giovanni Maggi 

Ralph Ossa

We examine international regulatory agreements that are negotiated under lobbying pressures from producer groups. The way in which lobbying influences the cooperative setting of regulatory policies, as well as the welfare impacts of international agreements, depend crucially on whether the interests of producers in different countries are aligned or in conflict. The former situation tends to occur for product standards, while the latter tends to occur for process standards. We find that, if producer lobbies are strong enough, agreements on product standards lead to excessive deregulation and decrease welfare, while agreements on process standards tighten regulations and enhance welfare.

我们研究了在生产商团体的游说压力下谈判达成的国际监管协议。游说如何影响监管政策的合作制定，以及国际协议对福利的影响，关键取决于不同国家生产者的利益是一致的还是相互冲突的。产品标准多出现前一种情况，工艺标准多出现后一种情况。我们发现，如果生产者游说团体足够强大，产品标准协议会导致过度放松管制并降低福利，而过程标准协议会收紧监管并提高福利。

 

 

05. The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments

宏观消费调整的微观剖析

Rafael Guntin 

Pablo Ottonello 

Diego J. Perez 

We study crises characterized by large adjustments of aggregate consumption through their microlevel patterns. We document the cross-sectional patterns of consumption adjustment across the income distribution and find large adjustments for top-income households, who exhibit consumption-income elasticities similar to or larger than the average. We construct a heterogeneous-agent open economy model of consumption under income fluctuations and show that the data patterns are largely consistent with theories that attribute the dynamics of aggregate consumption to changes in aggregate permanent income. We also discuss our findings' implications for theories based on the tightening of households' borrowing constraints and analyze policy implications.

我们通过微观层面的模式研究以总消费大幅调整为特征的危机。我们记录了收入分配中消费调整的横截面模式，并发现高收入家庭的调整幅度很大，这些家庭表现出与平均水平相似或大于平均水平的消费收入弹性。我们构建了收入波动下的消费异质性主体开放经济模型，并表明数据模式与将总消费动态归因于总永久收入变化的理论基本一致。我们还讨论了我们的研究结果对基于家庭借贷约束收紧的理论的影响，并分析了政策影响。

 

 

06. The Missing Intercept: A Demand Equivalence Approach

缺失的拦截:需求等价方法

I give conditions under which changes in private spending are accommodated in general equilibrium exactly like changes in aggregate fiscal expenditure. Under such demand equivalence, researchers can use time series evidence on fiscal multipliers to recover the general equilibrium "missing intercept" of shocks to private spending identified in the cross section. Through the lens of this theory, time series estimates of a fiscal multiplier around one suggest a missing intercept close to zero—an observation that I illustrate with an application to the 2008 tax rebates. I also discuss the robustness of this aggregation approach to plausible violations of demand equivalence.

我给出了一些条件，在这些条件下，私人支出的变化完全像财政总支出的变化一样被纳入一般均衡。在这种需求等价下，研究人员可以利用财政乘数的时间序列证据来恢复横截面中确定的私人支出冲击的一般均衡“缺失截距”。从这一理论的角度来看，财政乘数在1左右的时间序列估计表明，缺失的截距接近于零——我用2008年退税的应用来说明这一观察结果。我还讨论了这种聚合方法对合理的需求等效违反的鲁棒性。

 

 

07. Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms: Comment

谁受益于国家公司税减免?异质企业的本地劳动力市场研究:评论

Clément Malgouyres 

Thierry Mayer 

Clément Mazet-Sonilhac

Suarez Serrato and Zidar (2016) identify state corporate tax incidence in a spatial equilibrium model with imperfectly mobile firms. Their identification argument rests on comparative statics omitting a channel implied by their model: the link between common determinants of a location's attractiveness and the average idiosyncratic productivity of firms choosing that location. This compositional margin causes the labor demand elasticity to be independent from the product demand elasticity, impeding the identification of incidence from the four estimated reduced-form effects. Assigning consensual values to the unidentified parameters, we find that the incidence share borne by firm owners is closer to 25 percent than 40 percent.

Suarez Serrato和Zidar(2016)在不完全移动企业的空间均衡模型中确定了国家公司税的发生率。他们的鉴别论点建立在比较静态的基础上，忽略了他们的模型所隐含的一个渠道:地点吸引力的共同决定因素与选择该地点的公司的平均特殊生产率之间的联系。这种构成边际导致劳动需求弹性独立于产品需求弹性，从而阻碍了从四种估计的约化效应中识别发生率。通过对未确定参数赋值，我们发现企业所有者承担的发生率份额更接近25%，而不是40%。