每天一篇经济学人 | Venture capital 风险资本（2022年...

The venture-capital bull run of the past two decades transformed what was once a cottage industry in Silicon Valley into a huge machine for building globally dominant companies. Over $600bn of venture funds were invested worldwide last year, nearly ten times the level a decade ago. Venture capital (vc) spread into new sectors, drew in new participants and became more global. Valuations rocketed as a sense took hold that the good times would never end.

过去20年的风险投资牛市将硅谷曾经的家庭手工业变成了打造全球主导企业的大型机器。去年全球风投基金投资了6000多亿美元，这几乎是10年前的10倍。风投扩展到新的领域，吸引新的参与者，变得更加全球化。随着“好时光永远不会结束”的观念深入人心，估值飙升。

Now the war in Ukraine, X’s purging of its tech industry and rising interest rates mean capitalism’s moon-shot machine is earthbound. Public markets were the first to be hit. The nasdaq index, which is weighted towards technology companies, has fallen by nearly 30% so far this year in a gruesome reckoning. The amount of capital raised through initial public offerings so far in 2022 is down by about 50% globally and by more than 70% in America compared with the same period last year.

moonshot：一个疯狂的想法或者不大可能实现的项目，它被解决的科学几率可能只有一百万分之一。谷歌特别将moonshot描述为一个需要激进解决方案和突破性技术来解决的巨大难题。因此，一个moonshot需要大量的资金，即便是该项目可能永远都不会有任何成果。

【1】earthbound 不能离开地球表面的；只在地球（或陆地表面）上的；平淡无奇的；缺乏想象力的

[释义] unable to leave the surface of the earth；not exciting or showing much imagination

如今，俄乌战争、X对科技行业的“清理”以及利率的上升，意味着资本主义的"moonshot"机器已经搁浅。公开市场首先受到冲击。在一次估值中，以科技公司为权重的纳斯达克指数今年到目前为止已经下跌了近30%，这是恐怖的。到目前为止，与去年同期相比，2022年全球通过首次公开募股筹集的资金减少了约50%，美国则减少了70%以上。

The public-market bloodbath is inevitably hurting the vc world. Losses in end-investors’ public portfolios put pressure on their private ones. Pension funds and endowments that committed large amounts of “dry powder” to private markets are trying to preserve cash by asking vcs to slow their pace of investing. Because there are more crossover funds, such as Tiger Global Management, which invest in several corners of the capital markets, the connection between public and private valuations has strengthened. Global investments made by vc funds in startups in May were worth $39bn, about 30% less than the monthly average for 2021. Already, 68% of vc funds are reporting markdowns of valuations in their portfolios.

Dry Powder：指的是投资机构或基金所具有的储备流动资金，这部分资金用于未来的投资、收购等事项。对于VC、PE来说，Dry Powder是指基金手头上已承诺但未分配的现金储备或流动资产的数量。换句话说，它是等待投资的未动用现金储备。

【1】bloodbath 大屠杀

【2】markdown 减价

公开市场的大屠杀不可避免地伤害了风投界。终极投资者的公共投资组合的损失给他们的私人投资组合带来了压力。向私募市场投入大量“弹药”的养老基金和捐赠基金，正试图通过要求风投放慢投资步伐来保存现金。由于出现了更多的跨界基金，比如投资于资本市场多个“角落”的老虎全球管理基金，公募和私募估值之间的联系得到了加强。今年5月，风投基金对创业公司的全球投资价值390亿美元，比2021年的月平均水平低约30%。已经有68%的风险投资基金报告其投资组合的估值下降。

Startups that rely on vc cash are, unsurprisingly, feeling the pain. Fledgling firms with little cash saved, especially in competitive sectors such as food delivery, will fare worst. And after a long boom, expect some dubious behaviour to be revealed. One concern is how interlinked tech firms might be. Some apparently profitable startups are earning money by providing services, from digital marketing to cloud computing, to other startups that are losing money and that in turn rely on endless blank cheques from their vc sponsors. 

毫无疑问，依赖风投资金的初创公司正承受着痛苦。那些没有多少现金储备的新兴公司，尤其是像外卖这样的竞争行业的公司，将会遭遇最糟糕的情况。在长期繁荣之后，一些可疑的行为将会被揭露。一个令人担忧的问题是，科技公司之间的联系可能会有多紧密。一些表面上盈利的初创公司通过提供从数字营销到云计算等服务来赚钱，而其他正在亏损的初创公司则依赖于风投赞助人无尽的空白支票。

Pessimists note that vc slumps take years to bottom out. Downturns caused by inflation and an oil shock meant the amount of money flowing into vc funds fell by 94% between 1969 and 1975. After the peak of the dotcom bubble, the rate at which vc funds deployed capital fell for more than two years. 

悲观主义者指出，风投的下滑需要数年时间才能触底。通货膨胀和石油危机导致的经济衰退意味着在1969年到1975年间流入风投基金的资金减少了94%。在互联网泡沫达到顶峰后，风投基金资本配置率下降时间超过两年。

Yet despite all this, the correction will not be as bad as the crash of 2000-01. For one thing, plenty of startups have built up war chests and so have healthy balance-sheets. Assuming a typical cash-burn rate, all but three of the 70-odd biggest software startups have raised enough funds to last until 2025.

【1】war chests 为需要经过漫长斗争而取得成功而筹集的）资金，款项

然而，尽管如此，这次调整不会像2000-2001年的崩盘那样严重。首先，许多创业公司都筹集了大量的资金，因此拥有健康的资产负债表。按照典型的现金消耗速度，70多家最大的软件初创公司中，除了三家以外，其余都筹集到了足够的资金，可以维持到2025年。

The vc industry is more institutionalised, too. Self-sustaining vc networks from Europe to Asia are less dependent on flighty American capital and have enduring links to local financial firms and entrepreneurs. End-investors such as pension funds and endowments have experienced enough of tech’s transformative effect on the economy to know not to run away. 

【1】flighty 不负责任的；充满幻想的；反复无常的

风险投资行业也更加制度化了。从欧洲到亚洲的自我维持的风投网络较少依赖反复无常的美国资本，并且与当地金融公司和企业家有着持久的联系。养老基金和捐赠基金等终极投资者已经充分体验了科技对经济的变革性影响，因此知道不要逃跑。

Most important, the opportunity for innovation remains vast. The potential market for technology products has expanded hugely, beyond the bastions of business and consumer computing, to affect all parts of the business world, from biotech to supply-chain monitoring. What emerges from the chaos will be a leaner and more efficient industry—and one that will remain a powerful force. 

【1】bastion 堡垒

最重要的是，创新的机会依然巨大。科技产品的潜在市场已经大幅扩张，超出了商业和消费计算堡垒，影响到了商业世界的方方面面，从生物技术到供应链监控。从混乱中出现的将是一个更精简、更高效的行业，一个仍将保持强大力量的行业。