【龙腾网】脱欧的现实是如何冲击英国的？
正文翻译
Analysis by Luke McGee, CNN Business
CNN商业频道卢克·麦吉分析
London (CNN Business)Brexit might be done and dusted, but its specter will loom over Britain for a long time yet.
据CNN商业伦敦报道，英国脱欧或许已经尘埃落定，但它的阴云还将在很长一段时间内笼罩着英国。
For all the fanfare made when Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a trade deal with Brussels on Christmas Eve, the inescapable reality of leaving the European unx's customs and regulatory territory has already started to bite. The fact that the deal was only agreed one week before it came into effect meant that dangerous disruption to countless businesses that relied on seamless supply chains was inevitable.
尽管英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊在平安夜与布鲁塞尔达成一项贸易协议时曾号角齐鸣，但英国脱离欧盟所造成的海关和监管领地等不可避免的现实已经开始对英国产生影响。该协议在生效前一周才达成，这意味着无数依赖于无缝衔接供应链的企业将不可避免地会遭遇供应链中断的危险。
While it should be a source of embarrassment for the PM that his deal has made life very difficult for many of the industries that he has championed post-Brexit, Johnson's public statements on the matter suggest he is oblivious to the reality that many are facing.
虽然英国首相的交易让他支持退欧后的许多行业生活非常困难这一事实足以让首相感到尴尬，但约翰逊在这一问题上的公开声明表明，他对许多行业面临的现实压力视而不见。
"From the outset we were clear that we would be leaving the customs unx and single market which meant that there would be new processes after the end of the Transition Period. These were widely communicated through our public information campaign."
“从一开始，我们就很清楚我们将离开关税联盟和单一市场，这也意味着在过渡时期结束后将有新的进程。这些事实都是通过我们的公共信息运动广泛传播了的。”
The starkest example of what Brexit is doing to British business comes from Scotland's fishing industry. Despite the government's claims during Brexit negotiations that the fishing industry was very near the top of its priority list, there is a real fear that the entire industry could collapse in a matter of weeks.
脱欧对英国商业影响最明显的例子是苏格兰的渔业。尽管政府在英国退欧谈判期间声称渔业是其优先考虑的行业，但人们确实担心这整个行业可能会在短短几周内就崩溃。
"We had an entirely new system for exporters to get their heads around that hadn't been tested prior to use. The result, somewhat inevitably, was that it started going wrong straight away," says James Withers, chief executive of Scotland Food and Drink.
“我们之前为出口商提供了一个全新的系统来帮助他们理清头绪，但是这个系统在使用前没有经过测试。所以不可避免地，结果不太好，这个系统一经使用就立刻开始出问题了，”苏格兰食品饮料公司首席执行官詹姆斯·威瑟斯说道。
"This isn't as simple as an IT glitch that needs fixing. In a matter of days, we went from being able to send fresh food to Madrid with a single cover sheet of paperwork. Now there are roughly 26 steps for each transaction."
“这并不像一个需要修复的IT小故障那么简单。以前我们从只需要一张文书就可以把新鲜的食物送到马德里，而现在，每笔交易大约有26个步骤要走，走完流程需要好几天的时间。”
A truck drives past the Houses of Parliament in a protest against post-Brexit red tape.
一辆抗议脱欧后的手续繁杂的卡车驶过英国议会大厦。
The real-world impact of this means that some exporters have had the European market cut off overnight. Almost every day, pictures circulate on social media of virtually empty fish markets and boats tied up. Withers has heard stories of Scottish boats sailing 48 hours to process catches in Denmark, just to get their stock into the single market. In an industry where profit margins are often thin, every hour spent working around red tape is critical to both the freshness of the product and the productivity of the business.
这对现实世界的影响意味着，一些出口商在一夜之间切断了欧洲市场。社交媒体上几乎每天都流传着这样的图片:鱼市几乎空空如也，船只被绑在一起没有出海捕鱼。威瑟斯听说过这样的故事：苏格兰的船需要航行48小时到丹麦处理捕到的鱼，这样做只是为了把它们的货物运到欧盟市场上销售。在一个利润率通常很低的行业，花在繁杂手续上的每一个小时，对产品的新鲜度和业务的生产率都至关重要。
When pushed on the matter, Johnson has said that he thinks these are merely teething issues and not the fault of his deal or the barriers it's created. His spokesman explains that the government is providing £23 million ($31.4 million) for the industry to ease the process.
当被问及此事时，约翰逊表示，他认为这些仅仅是脱欧初期的问题，并不是他的协议或协议造成的贸易壁垒的错。他的发言人解释说，政府将为该行业提供2300万英镑(3140万美元)以缓解这一过渡期。
When asked specifically about the fishing industry earlier this week, Johnson once again denied that the problems facing exporters had anything to do with his deal, but instead were due to restaurants being shut because of the pandemic.
本周早些时候，当被问及渔业的具体情况时，约翰逊再次否认出口商面临的问题与他的协议有关，他认为疫情才是导致餐馆关闭的原因。
However, Withers believes that money "will run out quickly" and without coming to some new sort of arrangement with the European unx, "this sort of exporting might not be sustainable" and will "almost certainly lead to the very people the [Prime Minister] said he was fighting for losing their jobs."
然而，威瑟斯认为，政府提供的资金“很快就会用完”，而且如果英国不与欧盟达成某种新的协议的话，“这种出口可能是不可持续的”，而且“几乎肯定会导致首相所说的那些他正在为之奋斗的人失业。”
Brexit issues are exacerbating a slowdown caused by pandemic restrictions, IHS Markit said on Friday, and lengthening suppliers' delivery times. While 33% of manufacturers reporting a drop in exports lixed the decline directly to the pandemic, some 60% lixed the drop to Brexit, according to IHS.
IHS Markit周五表示，英国退欧问题加剧了疫情封锁造成的经济放缓，并延长了供应商的交货时间。根据IHS的数据，虽然33%的制造商报告出口的下降与疫情直接相关，但约60%的制造商称出口下降与英国脱欧有关。
There is real concern among trucking companies and logistics firms that things are going to get much worse in the coming months.
货运公司和物流公司真正担心的是未来几个月情况会变得更糟。
Multiple sources within the affected sectors told CNN Business that British consumers won't feel much disruption yet, as January is a typically quiet month at ports and the United Kingdom did stockpile goods to prepare for a possible no-deal Brexit. But that could change as trade volumes increase over the coming months, putting border systems under additional pressure.
受影响行业的多位消息人士告诉CNN 商业频道，英国消费者目前还不会感到太大的困扰，因为1月份港口通常都比较安静，而且为了应对可能的无协议脱欧，英国也提前储备了货物。但随着未来几个月贸易量的增加，这种情况可能会发生变化，边境系统会面临额外的压力。
A supermarket customer looks at near empty shelves in a supermarket in Belfast, Northern Ireland earlier this month.
本月初，在北爱尔兰的贝尔法斯特，一名超市顾客看着附近空荡荡的货架。
Trade experts are concerned about the gradual decline in EU-UK trade. "The slow decline is in some ways more dangerous than sudden food shortages," says David Henig, UK director at the European Centre For International Political Economy. "I am particularly concerned about exporters being unable to fulfill orders and losing customers or just giving up completely. The long-term message that sends could be very damaging for inward investment," he adds.
贸易专家担心欧盟和英国之间的贸易逐渐下降。欧洲国际政治经济中心英国主管戴维·赫尼格表示:“在某些方面，这种贸易的缓慢下降比粮食突然短缺更危险。” “我特别担心出口商无法完成订单，失去客户，或者干脆放弃订单。而这些行为发出的长期信息可能会对外来投资造成极大损害，”他补充道。
And despite everyone involved working hard to resolve the early issues, Jerzewska fears this won't be enough to save struggling British exporters. "At the moment it's shock, but the underlying costs are not going away. And for traders who work at thin profit margins, an extra couple of percentage points could be the end."
尽管每个人都在努力解决早期的问题，但耶舍夫斯卡还是担心这不足以拯救苦苦挣扎的英国出口商。“目前这很令人震惊，但潜在成本并没有消失。对于那些利润微薄的贸易商来说，再多亏几个百分点就可能是他们的末日了。”
Many of Johnson's Conservative lawmakers are struggling with how to reply to their constituents. "The party gave us lines to read out when the deal came through presenting it as a huge success, but as time goes on, it's clear there's quite a lot of nasty surprises in Pandora's box," says one Conservative member of parliament.
约翰逊手下的许多保守党议员都在为如何向他们的选民交代而苦苦挣扎。“党给了我们在交易达成时可以直接宣读出来的稿子，这些台词都倾向于如何描述巨大的成功，但随着时间的推移，很明显潘多拉的盒子里有很多令人讨厌的惊喜。”一个保守党议员这样说道。
There isn't much optimism that things will improve in the near future among moderate Conservatives. Many are extremely worried that the gradual decline caused by Brexit will ultimately lead to Europe trying to lure Britain's golden goose to the continent: The City of London, which hosts many of the world's biggest banks.
温和派保守派对近期情况是否会改善并不太乐观。许多人非常担心英国退欧导致的逐渐衰退最终可能将导致欧洲试图把号称“英国金鹅”的拥有世界上许多最大银行的伦敦金融城吸引到欧洲大陆。
"Once the fog of Covid lifts, financial and professional services firms looking to expand globally will see London and realize that we have given up quite a lot of our competitive advantage," says the Conservative member of parliament.
这位保守党议员表示:“一旦新冠肺炎的迷雾消散，寻求全球扩张的金融和专业服务公司将发现伦敦，并意识到我们英国已经放弃了相当多的竞争优势。”
Those politicians will have to explain to voters why they encouraged their prime minister to pursue such a hard Brexit despite the warnings of its consequences. They have a couple of months before things get really bad to put pressure on Johnson to start engaging with the reality of Brexit a little more.
到那时，这些政客将不得不向选民解释为什么当初他们不顾后果的警告要鼓励他们的首相坚持退欧。在情况变得非常糟糕之前，他们还有几个月的时间向约翰逊施压，让他开始更多地应对英国脱欧的现实。
The question that matters most to those struggling is how bad things must get before those who most vocally supported Brexit are willing to break ranks and admit the truth: that leaving the world's largest trading bloc has immediate consequences.
在那些信誓旦旦支持英国退欧的人愿意解散队伍并承认离开世界上最大的贸易集团会带来不好的后果的真相之前，对于那些苦苦挣扎的人来说，最重要的问题是意识到事情会有多糟糕。
