维多利亚3开发日志#21 | 10/28 外交博弈
牧游社 牧有汉化翻译
Victoria 3 - Dev Diary #21 - Diplomatic Plays
Wizzington, Game Director Victoria 3
It's Thursday again and you know what that means - another Diplomacy dev diary! Today's dev diary is one I've been looking forward to writing for some time, as it covers Diplomatic Plays, which we consider to be more or less the signature feature for Diplomacy in Victoria 3.
又到了周四，你们都懂的——又一篇关于外交的开发日志！今天这一篇日志我已经憋着想写很久了，因为它会讲到外交博弈Diplomatic Plays，而我们认为这基本上就是维多利亚3中外交系统的招牌特性。
So what are Diplomatic Plays? Well, to answer that question, I'm going to reach all the way back to Dev Diary #0 and one of the four game design pillars, namely Diplomatic Eminence. That pillar reads as follows: War is a continuation of diplomacy, and everything that is achievable by war should also be achievable through diplomacy (even if that diplomacy sometimes comes at the point of a gun).
所以什么是外交博弈呢？要回答这个问题，我得一路追溯到开发日志#0，以及四个游戏设计支柱之一，也就是外交的重要性。这个支柱表述如下：战争是外交的延续，所以一切能通过战争达到的目标也可以通过外交来实现（尽管有时候这种外交是通过枪杆子来实现）。
Well, diplomacy at the point of a gun is exactly what Diplomatic Plays are, as they allow you to try to achieve any objective normally achievable by war by diplomatically maneuvering to force the other side to give it to you without a fight. To fully explain what I mean by that, we’ll go over the mechanics of Diplomatic Plays in sequence - how they start, how they play out, and finally how they are resolved.
枪杆子里搞外交就是外交博弈了，因为它们允许你以外交运作来强迫另一方，在不打仗的情况下尝试去达成任何通常情况下由战争达成的目标。为了详细解释一下我刚才说的内容，我们会按顺序过一遍外交博弈的流程——怎么开始，怎么展开，以及最后怎么解决。
The way Diplomatic Plays start is the way you would normally start a war in another Paradox Grand Strategy Game - by demanding something from another country, for example that they cede a particular state to you. In fact, unlike other GSGs, Victoria 3 has no ‘declare war’ button to get what you demand - instead you start a Diplomatic Play, and wars are always preceded by Diplomatic Plays.
外交博弈开始的方式就是你通常在其他P社游戏里开战的方式——向另一个国家要求某些东西，比如让他们给你割让某个省份。实际上，不像其它大战略游戏，维多利亚3没有“宣战”按钮能让你得到你要求的东西——你得开展外交博弈，而战争总是在外交博弈之后。
The fourteen opening moves currently available as Diplomatic Plays, each corresponding with a war goal. As usual, the number in green indicates the number of possible valid targets that exist for that Play.目前可用作外交博弈的14个初始行动Opening Moves，每一个都对应一个战争目标。老规矩，绿色的数字代表了该博弈可能的有效目标数量。
Once a Diplomatic Play is started, there's a number of things that happen immediately. First, the country that is being targeted is of course notified, along with any countries that are considered Potential Participants in the play. Who is considered a potential participant depends on the exact nature of the play, but usually it includes any country with an Interest in the Strategic Region where the Play is taking place as well as countries that have a strong diplomatic reason to get involved (such as allies or the overlord of the defender). At this point it's important to note that only the Initiator (the country starting the play) and Target (the country targeted) are active participants, all others just have the potential to take part.
一旦外交博弈开始，有一些事情会立即发生。首先，目标国当然会得到通知，博弈中任何被认为是潜在参与者Potential Participants的国家也会得到通知。谁会被认为是潜在参与者取决于博弈的确切性质，但通常来说这包括了任何博弈进行的战略区域内有利益存在的国家，以及那些有强烈的外交理由参与其中的国家（比如防御方的盟友或宗主国）。需要特别指出，在这个阶段只有发起国Initiator（发起外交博弈的国家）和目标国Target（被指定为目标的国家）是有效参与者，其他国家只有参与的可能。
Next, the primary active participants on each side (the Initiator and the Target initially, though this can change if the overlord of either side steps into the play) are given a number of Maneuvers. This is a currency that primarily depends on Rank, with higher Rank countries having more maneuvers, and determines how many actions such as Swaying and adding Demands (more on these below) that said primary participant can take during the course of the play to try and gain the advantage over their enemy.
接下来，每一边的主要参与者（一开始是发起国和目标国，不过如果每一边的宗主国下场的话，就会发生改变）会有一定数量的外交筹码Maneuvers。这是一种主要取决于级别Rank的通货，更高的级别就会有更多的外交筹码，也会决定该主要参与者能够在博弈过程中能够使用多少行动，例如像游说Swaying和增加要求Adding Demands这样的行动（下面会有更多说明），从而尝试获取对敌人的优势。
There are three distinct phases over which a Diplomatic Play plays, based on the level of Escalation, which is a value that increases each day after the play is started. The first of these is Opening Moves, during which participating countries take stock of the situation, set their initial stances (more on that below) and the Target has time to set their Main Demand (the Main Demand of the Initiator has already been set, as it depends on what type of Play was started). During the Opening Moves phase, it isn't possible for other countries to fully commit to one side or another, with the sole exception of overlords of the primary participants. It also isn't possible for either side to back down.
外交博弈的博弈过程中会有三个独特的阶段，取决于事态升级Escalation的级别，该数值在博弈开始后每天都会增加。最开始的阶段是初始行动，在此期间参与各国会评估情况，设定他们的初始立场（下面会有更多说明），目标国则有时间设定他们的主要要求Main Demand（发起国的主要要求已经设定好了，取决于他们发起了什么博弈）。在初始行动阶段，其他国家无法完全倒向某一边，除非该国家是主要参与者的宗主国。双方也不能在此时让步。
Cape Colony's bid for independence and open British markets turned out to be a step too far. Britain demands nothing less than total annexation of the colonial upstarts, whose only hope now is either suffering partial annexation for its insolence, or having to get in real close with France and hope for the best.开普敦殖民地对于取得独立和开放英国市场的要求有点太过分了。英国一开始就直接要求对殖民地的全面吞并，现在殖民地唯一的希望就是，要么为自己的傲慢付出代价，吞下部分被吞并的苦果，要么和法国建立密切接触，指望能有好事发生。
Once Escalation reaches a certain point, the Opening Moves phase ends and the Diplomatic Maneuvering phase starts. If by this point the Target has not set their Main Demand, they are automatically given one (usually War Reparations). This is the 'main' phase of the Diplomatic Play, which occupies the majority of the escalation scale and during which most of the 'action' takes place.
一旦事态升级到了一定程度，初始行动阶段就会结束，而外交运作Diplomatic Maneuvering阶段就会开始。如果在此之前目标国还未设定他们的主要要求，就会自动给他们一个（一般是战争赔款）。这就是外交博弈的“主要”阶段，它会占据事态升级计量表的大部分，在此期间大多数“行动”也会发生。
During this phase, potential participants can now set any stance towards each side, from full support without requiring anything in return (something most AIs won't be keen to do as they're not big on having their troops die for charity, at least not in an offensive war), to leaning towards a particular side (which will signal to that side that they're likely willing to be swayed), to simply being on the fence with no particular preference for either side. It's also possible for countries that have not committed to one side or the other to simply Declare Neutrality and exit the play altogether, though this might have diplomatic consequences depending on the circumstances.
在这个阶段，潜在参与者可以对任意一边设定任何立场，从不要求任何回报的全面支持（大部分AI不会很想这么做，因为他们不想让他们的部队白白流血牺牲，至少不是在进攻战争中），到倾向于特定一边（这会告诉那一边，他们很可能愿意被游说），或者只是持观望态度，对两边都没有特定偏好。还没有倒向某一边的国家也可以直接宣布中立Declare Neutrality，完全退出博弈，不过根据具体情况，这可能会带来外交后果。
With only a fraction of the military strength of Great Qing, Kokand's future independence looks highly questionable. But this Play still has the potential to become pretty complex if Kokand can convince the Sikh and Russian empires to support their case against Qing. Perhaps gaining another subject is not worth the risk of a protracted war that might well cost upwards of half a million lives.浩罕的军事力量只有大清的零头，国家未来的独立恐怕不保。但是如果浩罕能够说服锡克帝国和俄罗斯帝国支持他们对抗大清的行动，这次博弈依然有可能变得非常复杂。或许为了得到又一个附属国而冒着打一场可能会有50万人牺牲的冗长战争的风险并不值得。
The Diplomatic Maneuvering phase is also when the primary participants are expected to use up their available Maneuvers on adding Demands and Swaying potential participants to their side. It is also possible to spend your Maneuvers during the Opening Moves phase on adding Demands for yourself, burning through most of them early might leave you at a significant disadvantage late.
外交运作阶段也是主要参与者们应用完他们的外交筹码来增加要求和游说潜在参与者加入到自己这边的时候。把你的外交筹码全部花在初始行动阶段来为你自己增加更多要求也是可行的，不过早早花完所有筹码可能会让你之后处于显著不利地位。
Demands are essentially Wargoals (and will turn into such if the Play escalates into war, but more on that later) and includes a wide variety of requests-under-duress such as ceding land, giving up claims or becoming a subject. Only the primary participants can add Demands, but in addition to demanding things on their own behalf they can also demand things on behalf of other countries backing them, if said country agrees that the Demand is something they want.
要求实际上就是战争目标（如果博弈升级为战争，就会真的变成战争目标，不过等下再说），包括了各种各样的胁迫性要求，比如割让土地、放弃宣称或成为附属国。只有主要参与者可以增加要求，但在为他们自己要求东西以外，他们也可以代表其他国家提出要求，只要当事国同意这是他们想要的东西。
While this may make it sound like it's a good idea to spend your maneuvers piling on as many Demands for yourself as possible, there's a couple reasons not to. First, adding certain aggressive Demands (such as demanding land) always results in a Diplomatic Incident, which will immediately give you Infamy and may degrade relations with countries you need to support you in the Play. Second, being seen as greedy and unreasonable in your Demands will in itself make it harder to get countries to back you up, and may in fact make it so undecided participants side against you just to put a stop to your mad dreams of conquest. It's worth noting though, that the Infamy from any Demands or Wargoals that end up not being pressed (for any reason) is partially or fully refunded, though their negative impact on relations remain.
把你存下的外交筹码尽可能多地花在自己的要求上，这虽然听起来像是一个好主意，但有几个原因让玩家不去这样做。首先，增加某些侵略性的要求（例如要求土地）总会导致外交摩擦Diplomatic Incident，这会立即给予玩家恶名，并可能恶化与那些玩家在博弈中需要争取支持自己的国家的关系。其次，若你的要求本身是被视为贪婪和不合理的，会让你更难取得他国的支持，而且实际上可能会让摇摆不定的参与者只是出于阻止你疯狂的征服梦想，便站在你的对立面。但值得注意的是，任何最终没有被确定（出于任何原因）的要求或战争目标的恶名都会部分或全部退还，尽管它们对关系的负面影响仍然存在。
Swaying, on the other hand, is the main way in which the primary participants get undecided participants over to their side, by making them a promise. This promise may be in the form of owing them an Obligation (more on this in a later dev diary) or promising them a Wargoal if the Play escalates into war. There's a few more such types of promises planned for release (promising to become their Protectorate or giving them a piece of land or a subject of yours, for example) but these are not yet implemented. If the country agrees, they will be set as backing the Swaying side in the Diplomatic Play, and will fight on their side if war breaks out, just as if they voluntarily set their stance to backing that side.
另一方面，给予承诺来进行游说，是主要参与者让摇摆不定的参与者倒向他们的主要方式。 这种承诺的形式可能是欠他们一项义务Obligation（在之后的开发日志中有更多内容），或者向他们承诺一个战争目标——如果博弈升级为战争的话。还有更多一些此类承诺（例如承诺成为他国的保护国或给予他国一块自己的土地或附属国）是我们计划在游戏发布时可用的，但这些尚未实装。如果该国同意，他们将在外交博弈中被设为支持游说方，如果战争爆发，他们将为己方而战，就好像他们自愿定下了支持那一方的立场一样。
Offering Prussia the Austrian states of West Galicia, Moravia, or Bohemia would be most appreciated, as they are populous border states. States which do not already border Prussian land are less attractive to them as they would be much harder to manage.给予普鲁士以西加利西亚、摩拉维亚或波西米亚等奥地利地区将是最受青睐的，因为它们是人口众多的边境地区。尚未与普鲁士领土接壤的地区对它们的吸引力则较小，因为这些地方更难管理。
However, if you think the Play is over just because France threw their weight behind the Initiator and there isn't anyone strong enough to oppose them, you'd be wrong! It's possible for countries that have promised to back a side to betray that promise and go back to being undecided, or even switch sides entirely, perhaps because the other side made an even juicier offer. Doing this of course makes them lose out on anything that was promised to them and negatively impacts on relations with the betrayed side, but otherwise there is no limit to how many times a single country can switch sides in a Diplomatic Play (the AI will be rather reluctant to offer something to a country that has already forsaken them once unless they desperately need their support, though).
然而，如果你认为这场博弈仅仅因为法国支持发起国，就没有足够强大的国家来反对他们，那你就错了！承诺支持一方的国家有可能背弃这一承诺，回到摇摆不定的状态，甚至可能因为另一方提出了更加诱人的提议便完全改变立场。这样做当然会让他们失去任何原本被承诺给他们的东西，并与被背叛方的关系产生负面影响，但在这之外，一个国家在外交博弈中可转换立场的次数是没有限制的（AI除非迫切需要他国的支持，否则将不愿意向已经背弃过他们一次的国家给出承诺）。
This also means that trying to 'play it smart' by burning through your maneuvers immediately to sway all the countries you think you need early in the Play can backfire, as the other side is then free to try and 'bid over' on your supporters while you're unable to do anything. Furthermore, it can also make it risky to not be upfront about your own territorial demands - doing the swaying first and then saying 'oh, and by the way, I want London’ might result in your side of the Play looking very empty all of a sudden as your former supporters scramble to distance themselves from you. Swaying and adding Demands during Diplomatic Maneuvering will also both pause Escalation for some time when carried out, to make it possible for the other side to react even if those actions are taken right at the end of the phase.
这也意味着，如果你在博弈初期就立即花费自己的外交筹码来游说所有自己认为需要的国家，以此来“耍聪明”，可能会适得其反，因为另一方可以在你无能为力的情况下随意尝试“出价”争取你的支持者。此外，不直截地提出自己的领土要求也是具有风险的，先进行游说然后说“哦，顺便说一下，我想要伦敦”可能会导致博弈中的你方一下子看起来十分人少势寡，因为你以前的支持者会争先恐后地与你保持距离。 在外交运作阶段游说和添加要求也会在执行时暂停事态升级进度一段时间，以使对方能够做出反应，即使这些行动是在该阶段结束时采取的。
Bolivia will remember this.玻利维亚会记住这个的。
The final phase of the Diplomatic Play is Countdown to War, which is exactly what it says on the tin. During Countdown to War, both sides are locked down and it's no longer possible for countries to declare or abandon support for either side, nor is it possible to add new Demands or do any Swaying. In fact, the only thing that is possible during this phase is Backing Down, and this is usually the phase when you will see one of the sides give in (though it is also possible to back down during Diplomatic Maneuvering).
外交博弈的最后阶段是战争倒计时Countdown to War，顾名思义就是字面意思。 在战争倒计时期间，双方都会被锁定，各国不能再宣布或放弃对任何一方的支持，也无法添加新的要求或进行任何游说。事实上，在这个阶段唯一可做的事情就是退让，这通常是你会看到有一方退让的阶段（尽管在外交运作期间也有可能退让）。
Backing Down is, quite simply, one side deciding that the odds aren't looking in their favor and deciding to concede the Main Demand of the other side to cut their losses. It's important to note that only the Main Demand is ever conceded in this way, so any additional Demands that are either added or promised to supporters of the winning side are simply lost (with accrued Infamy fully refunded), along with of course all the Demands on the losing side. This means that there is actually in some cases a reason to want the Play to escalate into war (and hence, to not stack the odds in such a way that the other side sees no path to victory), as it is the only way in which you can simultaneously press multiple Demands/Wargoals, assuming you're willing (or at least think you're willing) to bear the heavy cost of the war. It's possible to back down all the way up until the Escalation meter hits 100, at which point the Diplomatic Play is over and War breaks out.
退让很简单，就是一方认为局面对他们不利，并决定同意另一方的主要要求来减少损失。重点是要注意，只有主要求能被以这种方式被同意，因此任何添加的或承诺给获胜方支持者的额外要求都会丧失（累积的恶名全额退还），当然失败的一方的所有要求也会丧失。这意味着在某些情况下，实际上有理由希望博弈升级为战争（因此，不要以让对方看不到获胜希望的方式去堆积优势），因为这是唯一让你可以同时给出多个要求/战争目标的方法，假使你愿意（或至少认为你愿意）承担战争的沉重代价的话。直到事态升级进度条达到100前都是可以退让的，否则外交博弈结束，战争爆发。
Once all the cards are on the table you have to carefully weigh if this is really something you're able to win, and what cost you're willing to pay for the opportunity to try. Perhaps it's better to cut your losses, gain a Truce, let the other side accrue some Infamy, score a Claim on the lost territory (if the Play was about land), and start making a plan to recover what you lost - and then some.一旦所有的牌都摆在桌面上，你必须小心权衡这是否真的是你能够赢下的，以及你愿意为尝试这个机会付出多少代价。也许更好的选择是减少损失、达成休战协定，让对方积累一些恶名，取得对失去领土的宣称权（如果博弈是关于领土的），然后开始制定计划来收回你失去的东西，然后行动。
Whew, that was a lot of text, and I'm sure I've still missed some detail or another. As those of you who are familiar with Victoria 2 has noticed, Diplomatic Plays draws a lot of inspiration from the Crisis feature in Victoria 2: Heart of Darkness, a feature I've personally worked on and always thought was one of the most interesting things we've done in any expansion for a Paradox GSG. But with that said, our dev diaries on Diplomacy are drawing to a close (for now, we'll certainly return to the subject later) as next week we're going to talk about something you've been (rightfully) curious about since the announcement… War!
嗨，这期文本量很大，而且我敢肯定我仍然遗漏了一些细节。你们中熟悉维多利亚2的人已经注意到，外交博弈从维多利亚2：黑暗之心的危机Crisis特性中汲取了很多灵感，这是我个人工作开发过的功能，并且这一直被认为是我们已完成的P社大战略游戏扩展包中最有趣的内容之一。但话说到这，我们关于外交的开发日志就要结束了（暂时的，我们之后肯定会回到这个主题的），因为下周我们将谈论一些大家自游戏发布后一直（理所当然地）好奇的内容……战争！
翻译：AntiAccess 黑夜龙人
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