每天一篇经济学人 | Energy crisis 能源危机（2022年第8...

The Dutch province of Groningen sits on Europe’s biggest proven gasfield. Decades of extraction have caused small earthquakes that have left thousands of houses unstable, leading the government to reduce gas flows to a minimum and promise to shut the field by 2024. Gas prices are now so high that if it allowed regular pumping, the government could make every owner of a wobbly home a millionaire. But that is politically impossible. Even in the midst of an energy crisis, which could get worse in 2023, support for boosting energy production is shaky. 

荷兰格罗宁根省坐落在欧洲最大的已探明天然气田上。几十年的开采已经引发了小地震，导致成千上万的房屋不稳定，这使得政府将天然气流量减少到最低水平，并承诺到2024年关闭该气田。现在的天然气价格如此之高，如果允许定期开采，政府可以让每一个摇摇欲坠的房子的主人成为百万富翁。但这在政治上是不可能的。即使在能源危机中(这种危机可能在2023年变得更糟)，对提高能源生产的支持也靠不住。

Most businesses and households are understandably focusing on staying warm (and solvent) through this winter, not the next one. Policymakers are scrambling to help them with billions of euros. In early September, the German government coalition agreed on a new package of measures worth €65bn ($62.5bn), and then added another €200bn at the end of the month. Italy’s incoming government will come under immediate pressure to raise the country’s aid packages, already worth 3% of GDP. 

大多数企业和家庭都把重点放在“在这个冬天”保暖(和有偿付能力)上，而不是下一个冬天，这是可以理解的。政策制定者们正争先恐后地用数十亿欧元来帮助他们。9月初，德国联合政府同意了价值650亿欧元(合625亿美元)的一揽子新措施，并在9月底又增加了2000亿欧元。意大利即将上任的政府将立即面临提高援助计划的压力，援助计划已经占到GDP的3%。

Here is the bad news, though. Europe’s crisis will not end come spring. Goldman Sachs, a bank, recently projected gas prices in summer next year to be around €235 per MWh, higher than they are today (the pre-pandemic price was around €20). German electricity futures for the fourth quarter of 2023 are more expensive than for the fourth quarter of this year. Even in France, where policymakers hope that the many nuclear reactors currently shut for maintenance and repairs will return in 2023, the real worry is next winter, not this one, according to one energy boss.

不过，这里有个坏消息。欧洲危机不会在春天结束。高盛银行最近预测，明年夏天的天然气价格将在每兆瓦时235欧元左右，高于现在的价格(大流行前的价格约为20欧元)。德国2023年第四季度的电力期货价格高于今年第四季度。根据一位能源老板的说法，即使在法国，那里的政策制定者希望目前因维护和修理而关闭的许多核反应堆在2023年恢复运行，真正令人担忧的是下一个冬天，而不是这个冬天。

There are several reasons why prices are likely to remain high. If the winter is particularly cold, Europe’s gas storage facilities could be virtually empty by March. In 2022 Russian gas helped fill them, until Russia cut supplies over the summer in response to sanctions. Unless these resume in 2023, gas to replenish European stores will have to come from elsewhere. But little additional supply is expected to hit global markets before 2024, say analysts. This week’s sabotage of undersea pipelines, possibly by Russia, is another reason to worry that supply may be constrained next year, as are overdue closures for maintenance of facilities in Norway.

价格可能保持高位有几个原因。如果冬天特别冷，到3月，欧洲的天然气储存设施可能几乎会“清空”。2022年，俄罗斯天然气帮助填补了这些空缺，直到今年夏天，俄罗斯为了应对制裁而切断了供应。除非在2023年恢复供应，否则补充欧洲储存设施的天然气将不得不从其他地方来。但分析师们表示，预计在2024年之前，全球市场不会出现更多供应。本周对海底管道的破坏(可能是俄罗斯所为)，是人们担心明年石油供应可能受到限制的另一个原因，同样担心的还有挪威为维护设施而逾期关闭的事件。

The Netherlands’ Groningen gasfield is the only potential game-changer in Europe, say experts. It pumped out 42bn cubic metres in 2014, and could still produce 20-25bn, around 5% of Europe’s gas needs, according to the firms that own the concession to exploit the field. But the politics is fraught. The government has been slow to reinforce houses and compensate owners. Now it is putting their safety first.

专家表示，荷兰格罗宁根气田是欧洲唯一可能改变游戏规则的气田。据拥有该气田开采权的公司称，2014年它的天然气产量为420亿立方米，仍可生产200-250亿立方米，约占欧洲天然气需求的5%。但政治因素令人担忧。政府在加固房屋和补偿业主方面进展缓慢。现在则把他们的安全放在第一位。

Happily, the capacity to handle imports is improving. A floating LNG terminal in Eemshaven on the Dutch coast has just come online, and Germany is on course to add two more this year. A long-awaited pipeline connecting Norway to Poland via Denmark will begin operations in October, pumping up to 10bn cubic metres per year in the future. A new pipeline of about half that capacity from Poland to Slovakia will also start pumping, and the French-German interconnector is being retrofitted to allow eastward flows soon.

令人高兴的是，处理进口的能力正在提高。位于荷兰海岸埃姆斯哈文的一个浮动液化天然气终端刚刚投入使用，而德国正计划在今年再增加两个。一条人们期待已久、经丹麦连接挪威和波兰的管道将于今年10月开始运营，未来每年可输送至多100亿立方米天然气。一条从波兰到斯洛伐克的新管道也将开始输送，其输送能力约为50亿立方米，法国和德国的连接管道也正在进行改造，以便能够很快向东输送。

But competition between European countries for these supplies will be fierce. Poland has not secured supplies beyond the current heating season to fill its share of the new pipeline in full, according to its national gas company PGNiG. Germany is struggling to sign so-called solidarity agreements with some of its neighbours to secure supplies in case of shortages this winter. In the meantime, Berlin is unwilling to sign longer-term LNG contracts to secure supplies from abroad, and instead seems to trust its spending power to redirect LNG shipments to its shores as needed, at the expense of poorer countries. The EU’s platform to facilitate joint gas purchases to help those countries secure better prices has yet to come online.

但欧洲国家之间对这些供应的竞争将是激烈的。据波兰石油天然气公司称，在当前供暖季之后，波兰还没有获得足以完全填补新管道的供应量。德国正努力与一些邻国签署所谓的团结协议，以确保供应，以防今年冬天出现短缺问题。与此同时，柏林方面不愿签署较长期的液化天然气合同，以确保从国外获得供应，相反，它似乎相信自己的购买力，能够在需要时牺牲较贫穷国家的利益，从而将液化天然气运输重新导向其海岸。欧盟促进联合购买天然气以帮助这些国家获得更好价格的平台尚未上线。

High gas prices are also a major reason why electricity in Europe will continue to be expensive. Getting French nuclear power back to full capacity is crucial, as France is typically an exporter of electricity, but on current government projections that will take time. Germany is only reluctantly planning to extend the life of two of its three remaining nuclear power plants, and only until mid-April, despite its own analysis showing that it would save some gas. Poland has already restricted electricity exports to Germany, to lower its own electricity prices and to avoid burning too much coal, though officially it says it is to ensure security of power supply. The Swedish government is under pressure to do the same. 

高企的天然气价格也是欧洲电力价格居高不下的一个主要原因。让法国的核电恢复满负荷运转至关重要，因为法国通常是一个电力出口国，但根据政府目前的预测，这需要时间。德国只是不情愿地计划延长剩余三座核电站中的两座的使用寿命，而且只延长到4月中旬，尽管德国自己的分析显示，这样做可以节省一些天然气。波兰已经限制了对德国的电力出口，以降低本国的电价，并避免燃烧过多的煤，尽管官方称这是为了确保电力供应安全。瑞典政府也面临着同样的压力。

The longer the crisis drags on, the more difficult the political conflicts within and between countries will become. Home owners in Groningen, nuclear-power opponents in Germany and politicians across Europe shielding consumers from high prices all have their reasons to do so. But the collective result will be limited energy supply, excess demand and high prices all round in 2023.

危机拖得越久，国家内部和国家之间的政治冲突就会变得越困难。格罗宁根的房主、德国的核能反对者以及欧洲各地保护消费者免受高价格冲击的政客们都有他们这样做的理由。但总体的结果将是，到2023年，能源供应有限，需求过剩，价格居高不下。