2023年美国半年度货币政策报告：警告不要放松货币！
美国国会半年度货币政策报告
Chair Jerome H. Powell
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
在银行、住房和城市事务委员会前，美国参议院，华盛顿特区。
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Chairman Brown, Ranking Member Scott, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report.
布朗主席、高级议员斯科特和委员会的其他成员，我很高兴有机会向大家介绍美联储半年一度的货币政策报告。
My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is causing significant hardship, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal. Over the past year, we have taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy. We have covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our tightening so far are yet to be felt. Even so, we have more work to do. Our policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of labor market conditions that benefit all.
我和我的同事们敏锐地意识到，高通胀正在造成严重的困难，我们坚定地致力于使通胀率恢复到2% 的目标。过去一年，我们采取了有力措施，收紧了货币政策立场。我们已经采取了很多措施，到目前为止，我们紧缩政策的全部效果尚未显现出来。即便如此，我们还有更多的工作要做。我们的政策行动以促进最大限度的就业和稳定物价的双重使命为指导。没有价格稳定，经济就不会为任何人服务。特别是，没有价格的稳定，我们就不可能实现劳动力市场条件的持续发展，使所有人受益。
I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.
在转向货币政策之前，我将回顾一下当前的经济形势。
Current Economic Situation and Outlook The data from January on employment, consumer spending, manufacturing production, and inflation have partly reversed the softening trends that we had seen in the data just a month ago. Some of this reversal likely reflects the unseasonably warm weather in January in much of the country. Still, the breadth of the reversal along with revisions to the previous quarter suggests that inflationary pressures are running higher than expected at the time of our previous Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
当前经济形势和展望 1月份的就业、消费者支出、制造业生产和通货膨胀数据在一定程度上扭转了我们一个月前在数据中看到的疲软趋势。这种逆转部分可能反映了一月份该国大部分地区异常温暖的天气。尽管如此，这种逆转的广度以及对上一季度的修正表明，通胀压力高于我们上一次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议时的预期。
From a broader perspective, inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year but remains well above the FOMC's longer-run objective of 2 percent. The 12-month change in total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices has slowed from its peak of 7 percent in June to 5.4 percent in January as energy prices have declined and supply chain bottlenecks have eased.
从更广泛的角度来看，通胀自去年年中以来有所缓和，但仍远高于联邦公开市场委员会2% 的长期目标。随着能源价格的下降和供应链瓶颈的缓解，个人消费总支出(PCE)价格12个月的变化已从6月份7% 的峰值降至1月份的5.4% 。
Over the past 12 months, core PCE inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, was 4.7 percent. As supply chain bottlenecks have eased and tighter policy has restrained demand, inflation in the core goods sector has fallen. And while housing services inflation remains too high, the flattening out in rents evident in recently signed leases points to a deceleration in this component of inflation over the year ahead.
在过去12个月中，核心个人消费支出通胀率(不包括波动的食品和能源价格)为4.7% 。随着供应链瓶颈得到缓解，政策收紧抑制了需求，核心商品部门的通胀有所下降。尽管住房服务业的通胀率仍然过高，但最近签订的租约显示，租金水平趋于平缓，表明未来一年这一通胀因素将有所减速。
That said, there is little sign of disinflation thus far in the category of core services excluding housing, which accounts for more than half of core consumer expenditures. To restore price stability, we will need to see lower inflation in this sector, and there will very likely be some softening in labor market conditions. Although nominal wage gains have slowed somewhat in recent months, they remain above what is consistent with 2 percent inflation and current trends in productivity. Strong wage growth is good for workers but only if it is not eroded by inflation.
尽管如此，在不包括住房在内的核心服务领域，迄今为止几乎没有反通胀迹象。住房占核心消费者支出的一半以上。为了恢复物价稳定，我们需要看到这个部门的通货膨胀率下降，劳动力市场状况很可能会有所软化。尽管最近几个月名义工资增长有所放缓，但仍高于2% 的通货膨胀率和当前的生产率趋势。强劲的工资增长有利于工人，但前提是不受通胀侵蚀。
Turning to growth, the U.S. economy slowed significantly last year, with real gross domestic product rising at a below-trend pace of 0.9 percent. Although consumer spending appears to be expanding at a solid pace this quarter, other recent indicators point to subdued growth of spending and production. Activity in the housing sector continues to weaken, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.
至于增长方面，美国经济去年显著放缓，实际国内生产总值(GDP)增速低于趋势水平，为0.9% 。尽管本季度消费者支出似乎在稳步增长，但近期其它指标显示，支出和生产增长乏力。房地产行业的活动继续减弱，主要是因为抵押贷款利率上升。利率上升和产出增长放缓似乎也在拖累企业固定投资。
Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight. The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in January, its lowest level since 1969. Job gains remained very strong in January, while the supply of labor has continued to lag.1 As of the end of December, there were 1.9 job openings for each unemployed individual, close to the all-time peak recorded last March, while unemployment insurance claims have remained near historical lows.
尽管经济增长放缓，劳动力市场仍然极度紧张。美国1月份失业率为3.4% ，为1969年以来的最低水平。1月份就业增长依然强劲，而劳动力供应依然滞后。1截至12月底，每个失业人员有1.9个职位空缺，接近去年3月创下的历史最高纪录，而失业保险申请人数仍然接近历史最低水平。
Monetary Policy With inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and with the labor market remaining extremely tight, the FOMC has continued to tighten the stance of monetary policy, raising interest rates by 4-1/2 percentage points over the past year. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.2
货币政策 由于通货膨胀率远远高于我们2% 的长期目标，而且劳动力市场仍然非常紧张，联邦公开市场委员会继续收紧货币政策的立场，在过去一年里提高了4.5个百分点的利率。我们继续预计，联邦基金利率目标区间的持续上升将是适当的，以便达到一种货币政策的立场，即充分限制，使通货膨胀随着时间的推移回到2% 。此外，我们还将继续大幅缩减资产负债表规模。2
We are seeing the effects of our policy actions on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the Committee slowed the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, taking into account the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
我们看到我们的政策行动对经济中对利益最敏感的部门的需求产生了影响。然而，货币紧缩的全部效果，尤其是对通货膨胀的影响，要实现还需要时间。鉴于货币政策逐步收紧以及货币政策影响经济活动和通货膨胀的滞后性，委员会在过去两次会议上放慢了加息步伐。我们将继续以会议方式作出决定，同时考虑到收到的全部数据及其对经济活动和通货膨胀前景的影响。
Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. As I mentioned, the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price stability will likely require that we maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.
尽管近几个月来通货膨胀有所缓和，但要使通货膨胀率回落到2% 还有很长的路要走，而且可能会很颠簸。正如我刚才所说，最新的经济数据比预期的更为强劲，这表明最终的利率水平可能高于先前的预期。如果整体数据显示需要加快紧缩步伐，我们会准备加快加息步伐。恢复物价稳定可能需要我们在一段时间内保持货币政策的限制性立场。
Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.
我们的首要重点是利用我们的工具将通货膨胀率降低到2% 的目标，并保持较长期的通货膨胀预期稳定。恢复价格稳定对于为实现最大限度的就业和长期稳定价格奠定基础至关重要。历史记录强烈警告不要过早放松政策。我们将坚持到任务完成。
To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Federal Reserve will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
总而言之，我们明白我们的行动影响着全国各地的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了我们的公共使命。我们美联储将竭尽全力实现我们的最大就业和价格稳定目标。
Thank you. I am happy to take your questions.
谢谢，我很乐意回答你们的问题。
