The world economy: Goodbye globalisation

--A more nationalistic and self-sufficient era beckons. It won’t be richer—or safer

经济学人5月刊

EVEN BEFORE the pandemic, globalisation was in trouble. The open system of trade that had dominated the world economy for decades had been damaged by the financial crash and the Sino-American trade war. Now it is reeling from its third body-blow in a dozen years as lockdowns have sealed borders and disrupted commerce. The number of passengers at Heathrow has dropped by 97% year-on-year; Mexican car exports fell by 90% in April; 21% of transpacific container-sailings in May have been cancelled. As economies reopen, activity will recover, but don’t expect a quick return to a carefree world of unfettered movement and free trade. The pandemic will politicise travel and migration and entrench a bias towards self-reliance. This inward-looking lurch will enfeeble the recovery, leave the economy vulnerable and spread geopolitical instability.

beckon v. /ˈbekən/  

1.~ to sb (to do sth) to give sb a signal using your finger or hand, especially to tell them to move nearer or to follow you 招手示意；举手召唤 •He beckoned her over with a wave. 他挥手让她过去。 •The boss beckoned him into her office. 老板招手示意他去她的办公室。

2.to appear very attractive to sb 吸引；诱惑 •The clear blue sea beckoned. 清澈蔚蓝的大海令人向往。

3.[ V ] to be sth that is likely to happen or will possibly happen to sb in the future 很可能发生（或出现）

 Sino-American trade war中美贸易战，   reel from ：由于…而蹒跚；受…的不好影响

body blow n. something which has damaging effects on sb/sth, creating problems or causing severe disappointment 严重打击；挫折

carefree adj. /ˈkeəfriː/  having no worries or responsibilities 无忧无虑的；无牵挂的；不负责任的 • a carefree attitude/life 不负责任的态度；无忧无虑的生活

unfettered adj.  /ʌnˈfetəd/  ( formal ) not controlled or restricted 无限制的；不受约束的；自由的 • an unfettered free market 不受约束的自由市场

entrench v.  /ɪnˈtrentʃ/  ( in·trench ) [ VN ] [ usually passive ] ( sometimes disapproving ) to establish sth very firmly so that it is very difficult to change 使处于牢固地位；牢固确立 • entrenched attitudes/interests/opposition 顽固的态度；固有的利益团体；顽固的反对

inward-looking adj. 只关注自己的；对外界不关心的；冷漠的，不关心他人的

lurch  /lɜːtʃ/ v. 突然倾斜；（因震惊或惊恐等）心猛地一跳，胃猛地翻腾；蹒跚；突然改变（行为或态度）；见死不救；击败 n. 突然倾斜；失败，挫折；蹒跚

 leave sb in the ˈlurch ( informal ) to fail to help sb when they are relying on you to do so 在某人需要帮助时弃之不顾

enfeeble v. /ɪnˈfiːbl/  [ VN ] ( formal ) to make sb/sth weak 使衰弱；使虚弱；使无力

The world has had several epochs of integration, but the trading system that emerged in the 1990s went further than ever before. China became the world’s factory and borders opened to people, goods, capital and information. After Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 most banks and some multinational firms pulled back. Trade and foreign investment stagnated relative to GDP, a process this newspaper later called slowbalisation. Then came President Donald Trump’s trade wars, which mixed worries about blue-collar jobs and Cxx’s autocratic capitalism with a broader agenda of chauvinism and contempt for alliances. At the moment when the virus first started to spread in Wuhan last year, America’s tariff rate on imports was back to its highest level since 1993 and both America and C had begun to decouple their technology industries.

epoch n. /ˈiːpɒk/  1.a period of time in history, especially one during which important events or changes happen 时代；纪元；时期 2.( geology 地 ) a length of time which is a division of a period 世（地质年代）

Lehman Brothers ：雷曼兄弟

stagnate v.  /stæɡˈneɪt/  

1.to stop developing or making progress 停滞；不发展；不进步 •Profits have stagnated. 利润原地踏步。

2. to be or become stagnant 因不流动而变得污浊 •The water in the pond was stagnating. 池塘里的水逐渐变成了死水。

Slowbalisation：是与globalization对应的一个新创词，指全球贸易经济放缓。2015年被人提出用于描绘全球不断萎缩的国际贸易。

autocratic /ˌɔːtəˈkrætɪk/ adj. 专制的；独裁的，专横的

chauvinism n. /ˈʃəʊvɪnɪzəm/ 沙文主义--把本民族利益看得高于一切，并主张征服和奴役其他民族的一种反动民族主义。 因法国士兵沙文狂热拥护拿破仑用暴力向外扩张势力，所以把这种思想叫做沙文主义 male chauvinism 大男子主义

contempt n.   /kənˈtempt/~ (for sb/sth) the feeling that sb/sth is without value and deserves no respect at all 蔑视；轻蔑；鄙视；  ~ for sth a lack of worry or fear about rules, danger, etc. （对规则、危险等的）藐视，不顾

decouple v. /diːˈkʌpl/  ~ sth (from sth) ( formal ) to end the connection or relationship between two things （使两事物）分离，隔断

Since January a new wave of disruption has spread westward from Asia. Factory, shop and office closures have caused demand to tumble and prevented suppliers from reaching customers. The damage is not universal. Food is still getting through, Apple insists it can still make iPhones and China’s exports have held up so far, buoyed by sales of medical gear. But the overall effect is savage. World goods trade may shrink by 10-30% this year. In the first ten days of May exports from South Korea, a trade powerhouse, fell by 46% year-on-year, probably the worst decline since records began in 1967.

Tumble： /ˈtʌmbl/ vi. 摔倒；倒塌；滚动；打滚；仓惶地行动vt. 使摔倒；使滚翻；弄乱 n. 跌倒；翻筋斗；跌跤

buoy /bɔɪ/     

1.N-COUNT A buoy is a floating object that is used to show ships and boats where they can go and to warn them of danger. 浮标

2.V-T If someone in a difficult situation is buoyed by something, it makes them feel more cheerful and optimistic. 使振奋•  In May they danced in the streets, buoyed by their victory.  5月他们在街上跳舞，为胜利而振奋。

3. Buoy up  means the same as . 使振奋