经济学权威期刊The Economic journal 2023年第3期
The Economic journal 2023年第3期
Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers
多产品定价:来自大型零售商的理论和证据
Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon, Rodolfo Rigato
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 905–927, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac088
We study a unique dataset with comprehensive coverage of daily prices in large multi-product retailers in Israel. Retail stores synchronise price changes around occasional ‘peak’ days when they reprice around 10% of their products. To assess aggregate implications of partial price synchronisation, we develop a new model in which multi-product firms face economies of scope in price adjustment, and synchronisation is endogenous. Synchronisation of price changes attenuates the average price response to monetary shocks, but only high degrees of synchronisation can substantially strengthen the real effects of monetary policy shocks. Our calibrated model generates real effects similar in magnitude to those in M. Golosov, and R.E. Lucas, Journal of Political Economy (2007), vol. 115, pp. 171–99.
我们研究了一个独特的数据集，全面覆盖了以色列大型多产品零售商的每日价格。零售店在偶尔的”峰值”日前后同步价格变化，届时他们会重新定价约10%的产品。为了评估部分价格同步的总体影响，我们开发了一个新的模型，在该模型中，多产品公司面临价格调整的范围经济，而同步是内生性的。价格变化的同步性减弱了货币政策冲击对平均价格的反应，但只有高度的同步性才能显著增强货币政策冲击的实际效应。我们的校准模型产生了与M. Golosov和R.E. Lucas在《政治经济学杂志》(2007)第115卷第171-99页中提出的实际效应在量级上相似的效应。
Trends in Assortative Mating and Offspring Outcomes
选择性婚配和后代结果的趋势
Bernt Bratsberg, Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum, Knut Røed, Ole Røgeberg
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 928–950, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac071
We study assortative mating of Norwegian parents over five decades and its consequences for offspring outcomes. Parents are characterised by the earnings decile of their parents (the offspring's grandparents) as an indicator of social class. While assortative mating has remained stable across decades, parenthood has become more skewed toward the higher classes. Examining the influence on offspring education and employment, we find that the marginal effect of one parent's class is smaller the higher is the class of the other. Overall, mating trends have contributed to slight improvements in average education and employment and reduced inequality in the offspring generation.
我们研究了挪威父母50多年来的选型交配及其对后代结果的影响。父母的特点是他们的父母(后代的祖父母)的收入十分位数作为社会阶层的指标。尽管几十年来同型婚配一直保持稳定，为人父母却越来越倾向于上层社会。考察对子女教育和就业的影响，我们发现父母一方的阶层越高，边际效应越小。总体而言，择偶趋势对平均教育和就业水平略有改善，并减少了后代的不平等。
The Merit Primacy Effect
功绩优先效应
Alexander W Cappelen, Karl Ove Moene, Siv-Elisabeth Skjelbred, Bertil Tungodden
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 951–970, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac082
A long history in economics going back to Adam Smith has argued that people give primacy to merit—rather than luck—in distributive choices. We provide a theoretical framework formalising the merit primacy effect, and study it in a novel experiment where third-party spectators redistribute from high earners to low earners in situations where both merit and luck determine earnings. We identify a strong and consistent merit primacy effect in the spectator behaviour. The results shed new light on inequality acceptance in society, by showing how just a little bit of merit can make people significantly more inequality accepting.
经济学的悠久历史可以追溯到亚当·斯密(Adam Smith)，他认为，在分配选择中，人们会优先考虑功绩，而不是运气。我们提供了一个理论框架来形成化价值首因效应，并在一个新颖的实验中对其进行了研究，在价值和运气都决定收入的情况下，第三方观众从高收入者向低收入者进行了再分配。我们发现在观众行为中存在强烈且一致的价值优先效应。研究结果表明，一点点的优点可以让人们对不平等的接受程度显著提高，从而为社会对不平等的接受程度提供了新的线索。
International Trade and Innovation Dynamics with Endogenous Markups
基于内生加成的国际贸易与创新动态
Laurent Cavenaile, Pau Roldan-Blanco, Tom Schmitz
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 971–1004, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac085
We argue that the recent increases in market concentration and markups are partly due to an ‘innovation feedback effect’ of globalisation. Lower trade costs increase innovation incentives for global firms. As the winners of the ensuing innovation race increase their technological advantage, concentration and markups rise. We develop an endogenous growth model capturing this effect and calibrate it to US manufacturing data. We find that the increase in trade between 1989 and 2007 raised the aggregate markup by 3.5 percentage points. This is entirely due to innovation: without the innovation response, markups would have fallen by 4 percentage points.
我们认为，最近市场集中度和加成率的提高部分是由于全球化的“创新反馈效应”。较低的贸易成本增加了跨国公司的创新动力。随着随后创新竞赛的赢家技术优势的增强，企业集中度和利润率也随之上升。我们开发了一个捕捉这种效应的内生增长模型，并将其与美国制造业数据校准。我们发现，1989年至2007年间的贸易增长使总加价率提高了3.5个百分点。这完全归功于创新:如果没有创新回应，利润率将下降4个百分点。
Identification and Parametric Estimation of Empirical Dynamic Marriage Matching Models
经验动态婚姻匹配模型的辨识与参数估计
Liang Chen, Eugene Choo
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1005–1035, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac052
Marriage matching markets typically involve heterogenous agents participating in a dynamic, non-stationary environment. These features pose a considerable modelling challenge. In this paper, we develop a new parametric model of dynamic marriage that allows for market non-stationarity using a system of transitionary equilibria. We propose a method to identify and parametrically estimate the model by representing the model equilibrium with a fixed-point mapping. We apply our model to investigate how China’s one-child policy has affected the marriage distribution through its effect on the population and sex ratios.
婚姻匹配市场通常涉及参与动态、非平稳环境的异质主体。这些特征对建模提出了相当大的挑战。在本文中，我们开发了一个新的动态婚姻参数模型，该模型使用一个过渡平衡系统考虑市场非平稳。我们提出了一种方法来识别和参数估计模型，通过表示模型平衡与一个定点映射。我们运用我们的模型来研究中国的独生子女政策如何通过其对人口和性别比例的影响来影响婚姻分布。
Coordinated Work Schedules and the Gender Wage Gap
协调工作时间表和性别工资差距
German Cubas, Chinhui Juhn, Pedro Silos
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1036–1066, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac086
This paper studies how coordinated work schedules across jobs contribute to the gender wage gap. Using US time diary data, we construct occupation-level measures of coordinated schedules. Higher coordination is associated with higher wages and a larger gender wage gap. Empirically, women with children allocate more time to household care and are penalised for missing work during peak hours. An equilibrium occupational choice model generates a gender wage gap of 8.9%; most of the gender wage gap is within occupations. If coordination is set to the value of healthcare support across all occupations, the within-occupation gender gap halves.
本文研究了不同工作岗位间协调的工作安排对性别工资差距的影响。利用美国时间日记数据，我们构建了职业层面的协调调度措施。更高的协调与更高的工资和更大的性别工资差距有关。根据经验，有孩子的女性会把更多的时间花在照顾家庭上，如果在高峰时间错过工作，就会受到惩罚。均衡职业选择模型产生8.9%的性别工资差距;大多数性别工资差距发生在职业内部。如果将协调设置为所有职业的医疗保健支持价值，则职业内的性别差距将减半。
The Emperor’s Geography—City Locations, Nature and Institutional Optimisation
皇帝的地理-城市位置，自然和制度优化
Christian Düben, Melanie Krause
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1067–1105, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac063
The emergence of cities in specific locations depends on both geographical features (such as elevation and proximity to rivers) and institutional factors (such as centrality within an administrative region). In this paper, we analyse the importance of these factors at different levels of the urban hierarchy. To do so, we exploit a unique data set on the locations of cities of different status in imperial China from 221 BCE to 1911 CE, a geographically diverse empire with a long history of centralised rule. Developing a stylised theoretical model, we combine econometrics with machine learning techniques. Our results suggest that the higher a city is in the urban hierarchy, the less important are local geographical features compared to institutional factors. At the lower end of the scale, market towns without government responsibilities are most strongly shaped by geographical characteristics. We also find evidence that many cities of political importance in imperial times still enjoy a special status nowadays, underlining the modern relevance of these historical factors.
城市在特定位置的出现既取决于地理特征(如海拔和河流的邻近程度)，也取决于制度因素(如行政区域内的中心地位)。本文从城市等级的不同层面分析了这些因素的重要性。为此，我们利用了一组独特的数据，记录了公元前221年至公元1911年中国帝国时期不同地位的城市的位置。中国是一个地理多元化的帝国，有着悠久的中央集权统治历史。我们开发了一个程式化的理论模型，将计量经济学与机器学习技术结合起来。研究结果表明，城市等级越高，地方地理特征相对于制度因素的重要性越低。在规模的低端，没有政府责任的集镇受地理特征的影响最大。我们还发现，许多在帝国时代具有重要政治意义的城市在今天仍然享有特殊地位，突显了这些历史因素的现代相关性。
Auctions with Privately Known Capacities: Understanding Competition Among Renewables
以私人已知的能力进行拍卖:了解可再生能源之间的竞争
Natalia Fabra, Gerard Llobet
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1106–1146, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac080
We study a multi-unit auction model in which bidders are privately informed about the maximum number of units they are willing to trade (which we refer to as ‘capacity’). No matter how big or small, private information on capacities changes the nature of the equilibrium as compared to when private information is on costs (or valuations). Also, the uniform-price and discriminatory auctions are not revenue equivalent, in contrast to when costs are independently drawn. In particular, with independently drawn capacities (and possibly costs), the discriminatory format reduces payments to firms relative to the uniform-price format. Our analysis is motivated by the performance of future electricity markets in which renewable energies will be predominant, but the set-up also applies to a variety of contexts (from central bank liquidity auctions to emissions trading).
我们研究了一个多单元拍卖模型，在该模型中，竞标者私下获知他们愿意交易的最大单元数量(我们称之为“容量”)。无论大小，与关于成本(或估值)的私人信息相比，关于能力的私人信息会改变均衡的性质。此外，与独立提取成本相比，统一价格和歧视性拍卖并不等价于收入。特别是，由于具有独立提取的能力(可能还有成本)，歧视性格式相对于统一价格格式减少了对企业的付款。我们的分析是由可再生能源将占主导地位的未来电力市场的表现驱动的，但这种设置也适用于各种情况(从央行流动性拍卖到排放交易)。
Is School-Based Financial Education Effective? Immediate and Long-Lasting Impacts on High School Students
校本理财教育有效吗?对高中生的直接和长期影响
Veronica Frisancho
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1147–1180, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac084
Relying on a large-scale experiment in Peru, this study evaluates the effects of an in-class intervention on financial literacy and financial behaviour. As soon as the programme is over, treated students record significant financial literacy gains that do not hinder their academic performance. The programme also leads to immediate changes in downstream financial behaviour as measured by financial autonomy and financial savviness. Credit bureau records gathered three years later show that early improvements in financial literacy translate into limited, but positive long-lasting changes in financial behaviour. The treatment did not affect students’ credit or repayment behaviour on the extensive margin, but, among those few with outstanding loans, it reduced arrears by 20%.
基于秘鲁的大规模实验，本研究评估了课堂干预对金融知识和金融行为的影响。一旦项目结束，接受治疗的学生就会在不妨碍学业表现的情况下，在金融知识方面取得显著进步。该方案还导致以金融自主性和金融储蓄衡量的下游金融行为立即发生变化。信用局三年后收集的记录显示，金融素养的早期提高转化为金融行为的有限但积极的长期变化。这种待遇没有在很大程度上影响学生的信用或还款行为，但在少数有未偿贷款的学生中，它将欠款减少了20%。
Pledge-and-Review Bargaining: from Kyoto to Paris
承诺-审查谈判:从京都到巴黎
Bård Harstad
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1181–1216, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac076
A tractable dynamic model of international climate policies is analysed. The choice of bargaining game influences participation levels, emission quotas and technology investment levels. I derive several predictions that are arguably consistent with the differences between the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement—including the transitioning from the former to the latter.
本文分析了一个易于处理的国际气候政策动态模型。谈判博弈的选择影响参与水平、排放配额和技术投入水平。我得出的几个预测可以说与1997年《京都议定书》和2015年《巴黎协定》之间的差异一致——包括从前者向后者的过渡。
Multi-Dimensional Skills and Gender Differences in Stem Majors
Stem专业的多维技能与性别差异
Fernando Saltiel
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1217–1247, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac079
This paper studies the relationship between pre-college skills and gender differences in STEM majors. I use longitudinal data to estimate a generalised Roy model of initial major choices and subsequent graduation outcomes. I recover students’ latent math ability, non-cognitive skills and math self-efficacy. High–math-ability women have lower math self-efficacy than men. Mathematical ability and self-efficacy shape the likelihood of STEM enrolment. A lack of math self-efficacy drives women’s drop out from STEM majors. I find large returns to STEM enrolment for high–math-ability women. Well-focused math self-efficacy interventions could improve women’s STEM graduation rates and labour market outcomes.
本文研究了STEM专业学生的大学前技能与性别差异的关系。我使用纵向数据来估计一个关于最初的专业选择和随后毕业结果的广义罗伊模型。恢复学生潜在的数学能力、非认知能力和数学自我效能感。高数学能力的女性数学自我效能感低于男性。数学能力和自我效能感决定了参加STEM课程的可能性。缺乏数学自我效能感促使女性从STEM专业退学。我发现，学习STEM的高数学能力女性获得了巨大的回报。专注于数学自我效能的干预措施可以提高女性的STEM毕业率和劳动力市场的成果。
Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law
削减福利与犯罪:来自新济贫法的证据
Eric Melander, Martina Miotto
The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1248–1264, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac083
The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, highlighting the particularly criminogenic combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities for the economically vulnerable.
1834年的新《济贫法》改革导致英格兰和威尔士各县的福利支出大幅减少。利用双重差分工具变量策略中的改革，我们证明了福利提供的慷慨程度与犯罪活动之间存在稳健的负向关系。这一结果是由非暴力的财产犯罪驱动的，在季节性农业失业的几个月里表现得更强，突出了福利削减和经济弱势群体不稳定的工作机会的特别犯罪结合。
