Journal of Political Economy 2023年第6期

Journal of Political Economy 2023年第6期

2023, Volume 131, Issue 6

 

 

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Partial Default

部分违约

Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

We document that countries partially default often and with varying intensity, resulting in lengthy episodes and hump-shaped patterns for partial default and debt. Default episodes lead to haircuts for lenders but not to reductions in debt, because the defaulted debt accumulates and borrowing continues. We present a theory of partial default rationalizing these patterns and the heterogeneity of partial default, and partial default’s comovements with spreads, debt, and output that are absent in standard sovereign default theory. We include policy counterfactuals in the form of pari passu and no-dilution clauses and debt-relief policies, and their welfare implications.

我们记录了部分违约的国家经常和不同的强度，导致部分违约和债务的长时间和驼峰形模式。违约事件会导致贷款人的损失，但不会减少债务，因为违约债务会不断累积，而借贷仍在继续。我们提出了一个部分违约理论来合理化这些模式和部分违约的异质性，以及部分违约与标准主权违约理论中不存在的利差、债务和产出的变动。我们以同等权益和不稀释条款、债务减免政策及其福利影响的形式纳入了政策反事实。

 

 

 

The Equilibrium Existence Duality

均衡存在对偶性

Elizabeth Baldwin & Ravi Jagadeesan & Paul Klemperer & Alexander Teytelboym

We show that with indivisible goods, the existence of competitive equilibrium fundamentally depends on agents’ substitution effects, not their income effects. Our equilibrium existence duality allows us to transport results on the existence of competitive equilibrium from settings with transferable utility to settings with income effects. One consequence is that net substitutability—which is a strictly weaker condition than gross substitutability—is sufficient for the existence of competitive equilibrium. Further applications give new existence results beyond the case of (net) substitutes. Our results have implications for auction design.

研究表明，在商品不可分割的情况下，竞争均衡的存在从根本上取决于代理人的替代效应，而不是代理人的收入效应。我们的均衡存在性二元性允许我们将竞争均衡存在的结果从具有可转移效用的情境转移到具有收入效应的情境。结果之一是，净可替代性——一个比总可替代性更弱的条件——足以满足竞争均衡的存在。进一步的应用给出了(净)替代情况之外的新的存在结果。我们的研究结果对拍卖设计具有启示意义。

 

 

 

The Lasting Effects of Early-Childhood Education on Promoting the Skills and Social Mobility of Disadvantaged African Americans and Their Children

幼儿教育对提高弱势非裔美国人及其子女的技能和社会流动性的持久影响

Jorge Luis García & James J. Heckman & Victor Ronda

This paper demonstrates the long-term intra- and intergenerational benefits of the HighScope Perry Preschool Project, which targeted disadvantaged African American children. We use newly collected data on the original participants through late middle age and on their children into their midtwenties. We document long-lasting improvements in the original participants’ skills, marriage stability, earnings, criminal behavior, and health. Beneficial program impacts through the child-rearing years translate into better family environments for their children, leading to intergenerational gains. Children of the original participants have higher levels of education and employment, lower levels of criminal activity, and better health than children of the controls.

 

 

 

The Mainstreaming of Marx: Measuring the Effect of the Russian Revolution on Karl Marx’s Influence

马克思的主流化:俄国革命对马克思影响的衡量

 Phillip W. Magness & Michael Makovi

Karl Marx’s high academic stature outside of economics diverges sharply from his peripheral influence within the discipline, particularly after nineteenth-century developments rendered the labor theory of value obsolete. We hypothesize that the 1917 Russian Revolution is responsible for elevating Marx into the academic mainstream. Using the synthetic control method, we construct a counterfactual for Marx’s citation patterns in Google Ngram data. This allows us to predict how often Marx would have been cited if the Russian Revolution had not happened. We find a significant treatment effect, meaning that Marx’s academic stature today owes a substantial debt to political happenstance.

 

 

 

Pareto-Improving Segmentation of Multiproduct Markets

帕累托改进多产品市场分割

 Nima Haghpanah & Ron Siegel

We investigate whether a market served by a multiproduct monopolistic seller can be segmented in a way that benefits all consumers and the seller. The seller can offer a different product menu in each market segment, combining second- and third-degree price discrimination. We show that markets for which profit maximization leads to inefficiency can, generically, be segmented into two market segments in a way that increases the surplus of all consumers weakly and of some consumers and the seller strictly. Our constructive proof is based on deriving implications of binding incentive compatibility constraints when profit maximization implies inefficiency.

 

 

 

Voluntary Interaction and the Principle of Mutual Benefit

自愿互动与互惠原则

 Andrea Isoni & Robert Sugden & Jiwei Zheng

Most social preference theories are based on observations of nonvoluntary interactions. Nonselfish behavior may take fundamentally different forms in voluntary interactions, such as market transactions. We investigate the “Principle of Mutual Benefit”—an injunctive norm requiring individuals who enter interactions voluntarily to conform to common expectations about behavior within them. This norm induces patterns of behavior inconsistent with existing social preference theories and allows extrinsic incentives to crowd in trustworthiness. We embed this norm in a model consistent with evidence about promise keeping, gift exchange, and “avoiding the ask.” We present new experimental evidence that people adhere to it.