International Economic Review 2022年第四期
International Economic Review 2022年第四期
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
1.DEEP EQUILIBRIUM NETS
深度均衡网络
Marlon Azinovic, Luca Gaegauf, Simon Scheidegger
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12575
We introduce deep equilibrium nets (DEQNs)—a deep learning-based method to compute approximate functional rational expectations equilibria of economic models featuring a significant amount of heterogeneity, uncertainty, and occasionally binding constraints. DEQNs are neural networks trained in an unsupervised fashion to satisfy all equilibrium conditions along simulated paths of the economy. Since DEQNs approximate the equilibrium functions directly, simulating the economy is computationally cheap, and training data can be generated at virtually zero cost. We demonstrate that DEQNs can accurately solve economically relevant models by applying them to two challenging life-cycle models and a Bewley-style model with aggregate risk.
我们引入了深度均衡网络(DEQNs)——一种基于深度学习的方法，用于计算具有大量异质性、不确定性和偶尔约束的经济模型的近似功能理性预期均衡。deqn是一种以无监督方式训练的神经网络，以满足经济模拟路径上的所有均衡条件。由于deqn直接近似平衡函数，因此模拟经济的计算成本很低，并且可以以几乎为零的成本生成训练数据。通过将deqn应用于两个具有挑战性的生命周期模型和一个具有总风险的Bewley-style模型，我们证明了deqn可以准确地求解经济相关模型。
2.INSIDE MONEY, INVESTMENT, AND UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY
内部货币、投资和非常规货币政策
Lukas Altermatt
First published: 31 May 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12588
I develop a model where banks play a central role in monetary policy transmission. By credibly committing to repayment, banks can perform liquidity transformation. Illiquid assets may pay a liquidity premium because they allow banks to create liquid assets. The policy analysis discusses how the monetary authority can affect nominal rates and inflation when the fiscal authority follows nominal or real debt targets. A main result is that under a nominal debt target, the monetary authority is only able to increase inflation at the zero-lower bound by issuing money via lump-sum transfers, while doing so via bond purchases is ineffective.
我开发了一个模型，其中银行在货币政策传导中发挥核心作用。通过可靠地承诺还款，银行可以进行流动性转换。非流动性资产可能会支付流动性溢价，因为它们允许银行创造流动性资产。政策分析讨论了当财政当局遵循名义或实际债务目标时，货币当局如何影响名义利率和通货膨胀。一个主要结果是，在名义债务目标下，货币当局只能通过一次性转移发行货币来提高通胀水平，而通过购买债券来实现这一目标是无效的。
3.THE COST OF GREENING STIMULUS: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF VEHICLE SCRAPPAGE PROGRAMS
绿色刺激的成本:汽车报废计划的动态分析
Shanjun Li, Youming Liu, Chao Wei
First published: 09 June 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12590
This article investigates the potential trade-off between the stimulus and environmental objectives in the context of the U.S. vehicle scrappage program. We develop and estimate a dynamic model of vehicle ownership and conduct a counterfactual analysis comparing the implemented policy with alternative designs. We find the cost of the implemented policy 25% higher in terms of induced sales and 64% higher in terms of induced spending than a policy design without the environmental objective. The findings serve as a caution for green stimulus programs to address both climate change and the economic crisis from the ongoing pandemic.
本文探讨了在美国汽车报废计划的背景下，刺激计划和环境目标之间的潜在权衡。我们开发并估计了车辆拥有量的动态模型，并进行了反事实分析，将实施的政策与其他设计进行比较。我们发现，与没有环境目标的政策设计相比，实施政策的成本在诱导销售方面高出25%，在诱导支出方面高出64%。这一发现对绿色刺激计划提出了警告，以应对气候变化和当前大流行造成的经济危机。
4.MORAL HAZARD IN REMOTE TEAMS
远程团队的道德风险
Emilio Bisetti, Benjamin Tengelsen, Ariel Zetlin-Jones
First published: 14 April 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12579
We reexamine the ability of teams to credibly self-impose group punishments and prevent free riding when individual inputs are unobservable. We formulate self-imposed group punishments as performance underreporting by the team. Although underreporting is not credible in a static game, we show that simple strategies can sustain underreporting in a repeated game, and that the threat of underreporting improves welfare only if team members' preferences between shirking and team output consumption are nonseparable. Our results suggest that self-assessments can replace increased managerial monitoring in remote work environments.
我们重新审视了团队可信地自我施加集体惩罚的能力，并在个人投入不可观察的情况下防止搭便车。我们制定了自我施加的集体惩罚，如团队低报绩效。尽管少报在静态博弈中是不可信的，但我们证明了简单的策略可以在重复博弈中维持少报，并且只有当团队成员在逃避和团队产出消费之间的偏好不可分离时，少报的威胁才会提高福利。我们的研究结果表明，在远程工作环境中，自我评估可以取代增加的管理监控。
5.APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND FORECASTING IN HUGE-DIMENSIONAL MULTICOUNTRY VARs
大维多国变量的近似贝叶斯推理与预测
Martin Feldkircher, Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Michael Pfarrhofer
First published: 30 March 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12577
Panel vector autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multicountry data sets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this article, we develop fast Bayesian methods for estimating PVARs using integrated rotated Gaussian approximations. We exploit the fact that domestic information is often more important than international information and group the coefficients accordingly. Fast approximations are used to estimate the latter whereas the former are estimated with precision using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate, using a huge model of the world economy, that it produces competitive forecasts quickly.
面板向量自回归(PVARs)是分析多国数据集的常用工具。然而，估计参数的数量可能是巨大的，导致计算和统计问题。在本文中，我们开发了使用积分旋转高斯近似估计PVARs的快速贝叶斯方法。我们利用国内信息往往比国际信息更重要这一事实，并相应地对系数进行分组。后者采用快速近似估计，而前者则采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗技术进行精确估计。我们用一个巨大的世界经济模型来说明，它能迅速产生有竞争力的预测。
6.POSITIVE SKILL CLUSTERING IN ROLE-ASSIGNMENT MATCHING MODELS
Axel Anderson
First published: 25 March 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12576
Kremer and Maskin (1996, NBER Working Paper) explore matching when production involves defined roles. Despite underlying Cobb–Douglas production functions, the induced maximum production function is not supermodular (SPM), and positive sorting does not arise. This article introduces and solves a general class of role-assignment matching models with general SPM production functions. The unique equilibrium entails a novel blend of positive sorting in the large, and locally negative sorting that I call positive clustering. I show how the equilibrium matching changes as the production function changes. In a dynamic extension, sorting, mobility, and wage inequality positively covary with changes in production across matching markets.
Kremer和Maskin (1996, NBER工作论文)探讨了当生产涉及定义角色时的匹配。尽管存在Cobb-Douglas产生函数，但诱导的最大产生函数不是超模的(SPM)，并且不会产生正排序。本文介绍并求解了一类具有通用SPM生产函数的角色分配匹配模型。这种独特的平衡需要一种新的大的正排序和局部的负排序的混合，我称之为正聚类。我展示了平衡匹配是如何随着生产函数的变化而变化的。在动态扩展中，在匹配市场中，排序、流动性和工资不平等与生产变化正相关。
7.ENDOGENOUS SOCIAL NETWORKS AND INEQUALITY IN AN INTERGENERATIONAL SETTING
内源性社会网络与代际环境中的不平等
Yannis M. Ioannides
First published: 20 April 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12578
When providing professional services, an expert may misbehave by either prescribing “wrong” treatment for consumer's problem or failing to exert proper effort to diagnose it. We show that under a range of liabilities the expert will recommend the appropriate treatment based on his private information if markups for alternative treatments are close enough; however, a well-designed liability rule is essential for also motivating efficient diagnosis effort. We further demonstrate that unfettered price competition between experts may undermine the efficient role of liability, whereas either a minimum-price constraint or an obligation-to-serve requirement can restore it.
在提供专业服务时，专家可能会表现不当，要么对消费者的问题开出“错误”的治疗方案，要么没有做出适当的诊断。我们表明，在一定的责任范围下，如果替代治疗的加成足够接近，专家将根据他的私人信息推荐适当的治疗方法;然而，设计良好的责任规则对于激励有效的诊断工作也是必不可少的。我们进一步证明，专家之间不受约束的价格竞争可能会破坏责任的有效作用，而最低价格限制或服务义务要求都可以恢复责任的有效作用。
8.THE NEUTRALITY OF NOMINAL RATES: HOW LONG IS THE LONG RUN?
名义利率的中立性:长期有多长?
João Valle e Azevedo, João Ritto, Pedro Teles
First published: 18 May 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12584
We revisit the empirical relationship between policy interest rates and inflation aimed at understanding the reasons for persistently low inflation in Japan and the euro area and why monetary policy has been unable to raise it. We document the long-run positive relationship between nominal rates and inflation across countries and across time. We also find that a permanent rise in nominal rates leads to an increase in inflation, also in the short run. These findings suggest that the low inflation outcomes are a result of policy rates being kept too low for too long.
我们回顾了政策利率和通货膨胀之间的经验关系，旨在理解日本和欧元区通货膨胀持续低的原因，以及为什么货币政策一直无法提高通货膨胀率。我们记录了不同国家和不同时间名义利率和通货膨胀之间的长期正关系。我们还发现，名义利率的长期上升会导致通胀的上升，也是在短期内。这些发现表明，低通胀的结果是政策利率维持在过低水平太长时间的结果。
9.HETEROGENEOUS TREATMENT EFFECTS OF NUDGE AND REBATE: CAUSAL MACHINE LEARNING IN A FIELD EXPERIMENT ON ELECTRICITY CONSERVATION
助推和返利的异质处理效应:节电现场实验中的因果机器学习
Kayo Murakami, Hideki Shimada, Yoshiaki Ushifusa, Takanori Ida
First published: 03 June 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12589
This study investigates the different impacts of monetary and nonmonetary incentives on energy-saving behaviors using a field experiment conducted in Japan. We find that the average reduction in electricity consumption from the rebate is 4%, whereas that from the nudge is not significantly different from zero. Applying a novel machine learning method for causal inference (causal forest) to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects at the household level, we demonstrate that the nudge intervention's treatment effects generate greater heterogeneity among households. These findings suggest that selective targeting for treatment increases the policy efficiency of monetary and nonmonetary interventions.
本研究通过在日本进行的现场实验，探讨了货币激励和非货币激励对节能行为的不同影响。我们发现，从退税中平均减少了4%的用电量，而从轻推中减少的用电量与零没有显著差异。应用一种新颖的因果推断(因果森林)机器学习方法来估计家庭层面的异质治疗效果，我们证明了助推干预的治疗效果在家庭之间产生了更大的异质性。这些发现表明，选择性靶向治疗可以提高货币和非货币干预的政策效率。
10.NETWORK EXTERNALITIES, DOMINANT VALUE MARGINS, AND EQUILIBRIUM UNIQUENESS
网络外部性、支配价值边际和均衡唯一性
JAY PIL CHOI, CHRISTODOULOS STEFANADIS
First published: 25 May 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12587
We examine tippy network markets that accommodate price discrimination. The analysis shows that when a mild equilibrium refinement, the monotonicity criterion, is adopted, network competition may have a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium regarding the winner's identity; the prevailing brand may be fully determined by its product features. We bring out the concept of the dominant value margin, which is a metric of the effectiveness of divide-and-conquer strategies. The supplier with the larger dominant value margin may always sell to all customers in equilibrium. Such a market outcome is not necessarily socially efficient.
我们研究了适应价格歧视的网络市场。分析表明，当采用温和的均衡细化，即单调性准则时，网络竞争对于胜利者的身份可能具有唯一的子博弈-完美均衡;主导品牌可能完全由其产品特征决定。我们提出了优势价值边际的概念，这是一个分治策略有效性的度量标准。具有较大优势价值边际的供应商可能总是均衡地销售给所有客户。这样的市场结果并不一定对社会有效。
11.LEARNING ABOUT REGIME CHANGE
了解政权更迭
Andrew Foerster, Christian Matthes
First published: 18 May 2022
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12585
Total factor productivity (TFP) and investment specific technology (IST) growth both exhibit regime-switching behavior, but the regime at any given time is difficult to infer. We build a rational expectations real business cycle model where the underlying TFP and IST regimes are unobserved. We develop a general perturbation solution algorithm for a wide class of models with unobserved regime-switching. Using our method, we show learning about regime-switching fits the data, affect the responses to regime shifts and intraregime shocks, increase asymmetries in the responses, generate forecast error bias even with rational agents, and raise the welfare cost of fluctuations.
全要素生产率(TFP)和投资专用性技术(IST)增长均表现出区制转换行为，但在任何给定时间的区制都难以推断。我们建立了一个理性预期的实际经济周期模型，其中基本的TFP和IST制度是不可观测的。针对一类具有不可观测区域切换的模型，我们开发了一个通用的摄动解算法。利用我们的方法，我们发现，对区制转换的学习拟合了数据，影响了对区制转换和区制内部冲击的反应，增加了反应的不对称性，即使在理性行为下也会产生预测误差偏差，并提高了波动的福利成本。
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
