经济学权威期刊Journal of the European Economic Association2023年第1期

Journal of the European Economic Association2023年第1期

Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023

 

 

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1.On Risk and Time Pressure: When to Think and When to Do

风险与时间压力:何时思考，何时行动

Christoph Carnehl, Johannes Schneider

https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac027

We study the tradeoff between fundamental risk and time. A time-constrained agent has to solve a problem. She dynamically allocates effort between implementing a risky initial idea and exploring alternatives. Discovering an alternative implies progress that has to be converted to a solution. As time runs out, the chances of converting it in time shrink. We show that the agent may return to the initial idea after having left it in the past to explore alternatives. Our model helps explain so-called false starts. To finish fast, the agent delays exploring alternatives, reducing the overall success probability.

我们研究基本风险和时间之间的权衡。一个时间受限的代理必须解决一个问题。她动态地在实现一个有风险的初始想法和探索替代方案之间分配精力。发现替代方案意味着必须将进步转化为解决方案。随着时间的流逝，及时转化的机会也越来越小。我们表明，智能体在离开最初的想法去探索替代方案后，可能会回到最初的想法。我们的模型有助于解释所谓的错误开始。为了快速完成任务，代理会延迟探索替代方案，从而降低总体成功概率。

 

 

2.The Supply of Skill and Endogenous Technical Change: Evidence from a College Expansion Reform 

技能供给与内生技术变革:来自一次高校扩招改革的证据

Pedro Carneiro, Kai Liu, Kjell G Salvanes

https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac032

We examine the labor market consequences of an exogenous increase in the supply of skilled labor in several municipalities in Norway, resulting from the construction of new colleges in the 1970s. We find that skilled wages increased as a response, suggesting that along with an increase in the supply there was also an increase in demand for skill. We also show that college openings led to an increase in the productivity of skilled labor and investments in R&D. Our findings are consistent with models of endogenous technical change where an abundance of skilled workers may encourage firms to adopt skill-complementary technologies.

我们研究了挪威几个城市技术劳动力供给外生增加的劳动力市场后果，这是由于20世纪70年代新大学的建设造成的。我们发现，熟练工人的工资随之增加，这表明，随着供给的增加，对技能的需求也会增加。我们还表明，大学的开设导致了技术劳动力生产率的提高和研发投资的增加。我们的发现与内生技术变化的模型一致，即大量的熟练工人可能会鼓励企业采用技能互补技术。

 

 

 

3.On the Other Side of the Fence: Property Rights and Productivity in the United States

在栅栏的另一边:美国的财产权和生产力

Mathias Bühler

https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac029

Can well-defined access rights to publicly owned land be as effective as privatization in increasing productivity and wealth? In this paper, I evaluate the impact of public property rights using the 1934 Taylor Grazing Act, which determined secure access rights for ranchers to newly created, large grazing districts in the Western United States. Using satellite-based vegetation data, I exploit spatial discontinuities across grazing district boundaries and find that public lands with well-defined access rights for ranchers are at least 10% more productive than lands without. Immediately after establishing grazing districts, ranchers inside these districts held more cattle, and reported higher income and farm values than their counterparts outside. Despite ranchers being unable to invest in publicly owned lands, these magnitudes are similar to outright privatization. Instead, I argue that secure access rights resolve uncertainty around future usage and align the incentives of ranchers and regulators, thus incentivizing sustainable and profitable usage. I provide two results supporting this hypothesis: Areas with stronger pre-reform state capacity show larger increases in vegetation; and, monthly patterns on vegetation are consistent with the adoption of productivity-increasing fallowing practices. I investigate alternative explanations, and find no empirical support for differential initial productivity, negative spillovers, or systematic local manipulation of boundaries.

在提高生产率和财富方面，界定明确的公有土地使用权能否与私有化一样有效?在本文中，我使用1934年的泰勒放牧法案来评估公共财产权的影响，该法案确定了牧场主在美国西部新创建的大型牧区的安全使用权。利用基于卫星的植被数据，我利用牧区边界的空间不连续性，发现对牧场主有明确使用权的公共土地的生产力至少比没有明确使用权的土地高10%。在建立放牧区后，这些区域内的牧场主立即拥有更多的牛，并且报告的收入和农场价值高于外部的同行。尽管牧场主无法投资于公有土地，但这种规模与彻底的私有化类似。相反，我认为安全使用权解决了未来使用的不确定性，并协调了牧场主和监管机构的激励措施，从而激励可持续和有利可图的使用。我提供了两个结果来支持这一假设:改革前国家能力较强的地区植被增长较大;而且，植被的月变化模式与采用提高生产力的休耕措施是一致的。我调查了不同的解释，并没有发现初始生产率差异、负溢出效应或系统的局部边界操纵的实证支持。

 

 

4.Behavioral Influence 

行为影响力

Christopher P Chambers, Tugce Cuhadaroglu, Yusufcan Masatlioglu

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 135–166, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac028

In the context of stochastic choice, we introduce an individual decision model that admits a cardinal notion of peer influence. The model presumes that individual choice is not only determined by idiosyncratic evaluations of alternatives but also by the influence of the observed behavior of others. We establish that the equilibrium defined by the model is unique, stable, and falsifiable. Moreover, the underlying preferences and influence parameters as well as the structure of the underlying network are uniquely identified from, arguably, limited data. The baseline model includes two individuals with conformity motives. Generalizations to multi-individual settings and negative interactions are also introduced and analyzed.

在随机选择的背景下，我们引入了一个个体决策模型，该模型承认同伴影响的基本概念。该模型假定，个人选择不仅取决于对备选方案的特殊评估，还取决于观察到的他人行为的影响。我们建立了由模型定义的均衡是唯一的、稳定的和可证伪的。此外，潜在的偏好和影响参数以及潜在网络的结构是从有限的数据中唯一确定的。基准模型包括两个有从众动机的个体。概括到多个人设置和消极的相互作用也被介绍和分析。

 

 

5.Do Police Maximize Arrests or Minimize Crime? Evidence from Racial Profiling in U.S. Cities

警察是最大化逮捕还是最小化犯罪?来自美国城市种族定性的证据

Allison Stashko

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 167–214, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac039

It is difficult to identify sources of discrimination in police stop and search data. In part, this is due to uncertainty over the objective of discretionary police stops: Do officers aim to maximize arrests or to minimize crime? In this paper, I compare theoretical predictions implied by these two objectives to data from U.S. cities. Empirical evidence is consistent with a model of arrest maximization and inconsistent with a model of crime minimization. The findings support the validity of existing tests for discrimination that rely on the assumption that police officers maximize arrests.

在警察拦截和搜查数据中很难确定歧视的来源。在某种程度上，这是由于警察酌情拦截的目标不确定:警察的目标是最大限度地逮捕还是最大限度地减少犯罪?在本文中，我将这两个目标所隐含的理论预测与来自美国城市的数据进行了比较。经验证据与逮捕最大化模型相一致，与犯罪最小化模型不一致。这些发现支持了现有的歧视测试的有效性，这些测试依赖于警察最大限度地逮捕的假设。

 

 

6.Stop Suffering! Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge

停止痛苦!经济衰退和五旬节热潮

Francisco Costa, Angelo Marcantonio, Rudi Rocha

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 215–250, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac034

This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. Regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal affiliation and in the vote share of candidates connected to Pentecostal churches in national legislative elections. Once elected, these politicians carry out an agenda with greater emphasis on issues that are sensitive to fundamental religious principles. We, therefore, find that recessions led to the rise of religious fundamentalism in tandem with the transfer of political capital to elected Pentecostal leaders.

本文估计了经济衰退对巴西五旬节派福音主义扩张的影响。更容易受到经济困难影响的地区在五旬节派隶属关系和与五旬节派教会有联系的候选人在全国立法选举中的投票份额方面都持续上升。一旦当选，这些政治家的议程就会更加强调对基本宗教原则敏感的问题。因此，我们发现，经济衰退导致了宗教原教旨主义的崛起，同时政治资本也转移到了民选的五旬节派领袖身上。

 

 

7.How European Markets Became Free: A Study of Institutional Drift

欧洲市场如何变得自由:制度漂移的研究

German Gutierrez, Thomas Philippon

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 251–292, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac071

Over the past 20 years, Europe has deregulated many industries, protected consumer welfare, and created strongly independent regulators. These policies represent a stark departure from historical traditions in continental Europe. How and why did this turnaround happen? We build a political economy model of market regulation and we compare the design of national and supra-national regulators. We show that countries in a single market willingly promote a supranational regulator that enforces free markets beyond the preferences of any individual country. We test and confirm the predictions of the model. European institutions are indeed more independent and enforce competition more strongly than any individual country ever did. Countries with ex-ante weaker institutions benefit more from the delegation of competition policy to the EU level.

在过去20年里，欧洲放松了对许多行业的管制，保护了消费者福利，并建立了高度独立的监管机构。这些政策明显背离了欧洲大陆的历史传统。这种转变是如何发生的，为什么会发生?我们建立了一个市场监管的政治经济学模型，并比较了国家监管机构和超国家监管机构的设计。我们的研究表明，单一市场中的国家愿意推动一个超国家的监管机构，在任何单个国家的偏好之外执行自由市场。我们测试并确认了模型的预测。欧洲机构确实比以往任何一个国家都更独立，也更有力地推动竞争。原先制度较弱的国家从将竞争政策下放到欧盟层面中受益更多。

 

 

8.Monetary Policy and Sovereign Debt Sustainability

货币政策与主权债务可持续性

Samuel Hurtado, Galo Nuño, Carlos Thomas

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 293–325, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac035

We analyze the consequences of monetary policy for sovereign debt sustainability and welfare in a model of a small open economy where the government issues long-term nominal debt without a commitment not to default on it or erode its real value through (costly) inflation. Inflation is a form of partial default, one that is more state-contingent than outright default. This reduces the government’s incentives to default outright and hence enlarges the repayment region, compared to a regime in which debt cannot be inflated away. Moreover, inflation delivers sizable welfare gains in situations of sovereign debt stress, in which its benefits as a debt-stabilizing tool are larger. Over the longer run, however, the welfare gains from inflation are more modest, because the inflationary bias leads the government to create inflation also in situations in which it is less useful for debt-stabilization purposes.

我们在一个小型开放经济模型中分析了货币政策对主权债务可持续性和福利的影响，在这个模型中，政府发行长期名义债务，但没有承诺不违约或不通过(代价高昂的)通胀侵蚀其实际价值。通货膨胀是部分违约的一种形式，与完全违约相比，它更有国家因素的影响。这降低了政府直接违约的动机，因此扩大了偿还区域，而在这种情况下，债务无法通过通货膨胀来消除。此外，在主权债务面临压力的情况下，通胀会带来可观的福利收益，在这种情况下，通胀作为稳定债务的工具带来的好处更大。然而，从长期来看，通货膨胀带来的福利收益是比较温和的，因为通货膨胀的偏见导致政府在不太有利于债务稳定的情况下也会产生通货膨胀。

 

 

9.Search Frictions in International Goods Markets 

国际商品市场的搜索摩擦

Clémence Lenoir, Julien Martin, Isabelle Mejean

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 326–366, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac044

Abstract 

This paper studies how frictions in the acquisition of new customers distort the allocation of activities across heterogeneous producers. We add bilateral search frictions in a Ricardian model of trade and use French firm-to-firm trade data to estimate search frictions faced by French exporters in foreign markets. Estimated coefficients display a strong degree of heterogeneity across countries and products that correlates with various proxies for information frictions. Markets with high estimated frictions are shown to display less dispersion in sales between high- and low-productivity firms, a consequence of the distortive impact of frictions. A counterfactual reduction in the level of search frictions significantly improves the efficiency of the selection process by pushing the least productive exporters out of the market while increasing export sales at the top of the productivity distribution.

本文研究了获得新客户的摩擦如何扭曲异质生产者之间的活动分配。我们在李嘉图贸易模型中添加了双边搜索摩擦，并使用法国企业对企业的贸易数据来估计法国出口商在国外市场面临的搜索摩擦。估计系数在不同国家和产品之间显示出强烈的异质性，这与信息摩擦的各种代理相关。具有高摩擦估计的市场在高生产率企业和低生产率企业之间的销售分散较小，这是摩擦的扭曲影响的结果。搜索摩擦水平的反事实降低，通过将生产率最低的出口商挤出市场，同时增加生产率分布顶端的出口销售，显著提高了选择过程的效率。

 

 

10.Can Distributed Intermittent Renewable Generation Reduce Future Grid Investments? Evidence from France

分布式间歇可再生能源发电能减少未来电网投资吗?来自法国的证据

Nicolas Astier, Ram Rajagopal, Frank A Wolak

Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 367–412, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac045

This paper estimates the relationship between investments in five distributed generation technologies and hourly net withdrawals from over 2,000 electricity distribution networks in France between 2005 and 2018. We find that investments in distributed wind and solar generation have little or no impact on the annual peak of hourly net withdrawals from the distribution grid, while investments in hydroelectric and thermal distributed generation significantly reduce it. An optimistic analysis of the impact of investments in battery storage suggests that high levels are required for distributed wind and solar to deliver similar reductions in the annual peak of hourly net withdrawals. Our results imply that public policies favoring distributed wind and solar generation over utility-scale generation cannot be rationalized by savings in future grid investments.

本文估计了2005年至2018年期间，法国对五种分布式发电技术的投资与2000多个配电网络的小时净取电量之间的关系。我们发现，分布式风能和太阳能发电的投资对配电网每小时净抽电量的年度峰值影响很小或没有影响，而水力发电和热分布式发电的投资则显著降低了这一峰值。一项对电池存储投资影响的乐观分析表明，分布式风能和太阳能需要较高的水平，才能在每小时净取电量的年度峰值上实现类似的降低。我们的研究结果表明，支持分布式风能和太阳能发电而不是公用事业规模发电的公共政策不能通过节省未来电网投资而合理化。