【龙腾网】比特币的上涨仍不足以危及强势货币
正文翻译
New York (CNN Business)The price of Bitcoin has soared this week while the US dollar -- the world's number one reserve currency -- tumbled. Could this be the beginning of the end of the greenback's reign?
纽约（商业）当世界第一储备货币：美元暴跌的时候，本周比特币的价格飙升。这是否预示着美元的支配地位开始终结？
Bitcoin (XBT) hit a high of more than $48,000 on Tuesday after Tesla (TSLA) reported a $1.5 billion investment in the cryptocurrency and said it could soon be used to buy its electric cars.
Bitcoin was up some 5% Tuesday afternoon, while the US dollar index was down 0.6%.
在特斯拉宣布大举投资15亿美元买入加密货币并允诺很快可以用加密货币买他们的电动车后，比特币价格在本周二一度越过48000美元。在美元指数下跌0.6%的时候，比特币在周二下午升值5%
Tesla isn't the first company to dabble in bitcoin, but it's definitely the most prominent one: A vote of confidence from the richest man in the world, Telsa CEO Elon Musk, is quite the endorsement.
特斯拉不是第一间涉足比特币的公司，但它肯定是最瞩目的一间公司：特斯拉公司CEO埃隆·马斯克,这位世界最富有的人对比特币投下信任的一票就是最好的背书。
"As more and more companies start accepting bitcoin, this will only lead to further increases in demand in a market which is limited in supply," wrote Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at ThinkMarkets, in a note to clients.
ThinkMarkets的分析师Fawad Razaqzada在一份给客户的通知中提及：“当越来越多的公司开始接受比特币，这只会导致市场中的比特币因为需求增加但供应受限而进一步升值”。
"Bitcoin is becoming an alternative asset," said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies. "It's not correlated to anything else in the market."
杰富瑞的外汇业务全球主管Brad Bechtel说：“比特币正在变成一个资产选项，它与市场里的其它资产并不互相关联。“
And that makes it an attractive asset to add to a portfolio, Bechtel said.
Bechtel说：”这让比特币成为一种有吸引力的资产并加入投资组合中“
That's pretty bullish for the long-term bitcoin outlook, even as some, notably Bank of America, have called the crypto rally "the mother of all bubbles."
尽管一些如美国银行的机构嘲讽加密货币为所有泡沫之母，比特币的长期展望仍然相当乐观。
But don't turn all your hard-earned dollars into bitcoin just yet.
但也不要现在就把你来之不易的钞票都投到比特币上。
Sure, the euro and China's yuan have become more popular in recent years and cryptocurrencies have arrived on the scene. But for now, there's nothing to knock the dollar's status.
当然，近年来欧元和人民币也变得越来越普遍，同时众多的加密货币纷纷涌现。但是直到目前为止，都还没任何一种可以撼动美元的地位。
Bitcoin has jumped more than 30% in February alone -- an impressive increase. But "that kind of price action is the exact opposite" of what reserve investors are looking for," Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, told CNN Business. "Rather than making it more attractive as a reserve asset it makes it less attractive, because volatility is risk."
单在2月，比特币就升值超过30%-一个令人印象深刻升幅。“但这类价格波动恰恰和储备投资者所追求的目标相反” Bannockburn Global Forex 的首席市场策略师Marc Chandler提到：“作为一个储备资产，少点引人关注比非常引人关注更好，因为波动也就是风险。”
Reserve investors such as central banks aren't looking for the biggest return. They look instead for value-preserving investments. And while bitcoin's volatility might diminish as the cryptocurrency market matures, it hasn't so far.
Another reason bitcoin isn't about to become the world's reserve currency is that it's not really a currency, wrote Chandler on his blog. "[Cryptocurrencies] do not fulfill the economists' definition of money: a means of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account," he said.
如中央银行之类的储备投资者并不寻求巨额回报，他们更希望找到保值的投资。当加密货币市场成熟后，比特币可能会减少波动，但至少到目前为止这种情况还没出现。比特比另一个不能成为世界储备货币的原因是，它并不是一种真正的货币，钱德勒在他的博客中写道：”加密货币不满足经济学家位对钱的定义：一种交换手段，一种价值承载，一种记帐单位“
Weaker dollar under Biden
拜登领导下的弱势美元
President Donald Trump repeatedly expressed his desire for a weaker dollar when he was in office, but global trade tensions and geopolitical wobbles boosted its safe haven status and made the dollar appealing for investors.
Conditions look a bit different for President Joe Biden and the greenback could weaken as a result of the new administration's economic agenda, including more government stimulus.
特朗普总统在任的时候反复表达他希望维系弱势美元的愿望，但是全球贸易紧张和地缘政治动荡提高了美元的安全港地位，使得美元对投资者更具吸引力。拜登总统上台后情况有了小小的变化，由于新政府的经济议程，包括更多的政府刺激计划，美钞可能变得更弱。
Interest rates now are ultra low and the Federal Reserve has signaled that they will stay there until the recovery is well under way. That makes America's currency less appealing for investors.
当前利率已经非常低，同时联储局已经释放出信号：他们会保持当前状态直至经济复杂顺利进行。这导致投资者对美元兴趣缺缺。
US Treasury yields, which follow interest rate expectations, have ticked up recently amid hopes for a faster economic recovery. But economists at Capital Economics don't think this trend will last given the Fed's stance on low rates.
美国国债收益率跟随利率的预期，在近期市场弥漫着经济快速复苏的氛围中上涨。但是鉴于美联储对低利率的立场，Capital Economics的经济学家们并不认为这个趋势将会持续下去。
The vaccine rollout paired with continued government support could lead to a mini economic boom in the summer, and lead more optimistic investors to take some risks. That would be bad for the super safe US dollar, as those investors could favor riskier currencies.
在新冠疫苗的出现还有政府持续的支持下，今夏可能出现一个经济的小高峰，这会让更多乐观的投资者愿意更冒进一些。这对超级安全的美元不是一个好消息，因为这些投资者会倾向投资那些更有风险的货币。
