IfFP China|为什么退休计划会出错,以及如何修正
根据经验法则,每两个退休计划中,必然有一个会有缺陷或不足而不合格。这是为什么呢?我们又该如何避免?
即使腰缠万贯,富人也害怕人活着,钱没了。尽管有诸多技术助力,以及一系列退休规划,但仍不能绝对地肯定我们的计算和退休计划最终会如我们所愿。原因是多方面的:人为因素和技术因素导致每两个退休计划中就有一个计划不能实现目标。如果已知到达理想目的地的概率只有50%,您还会登机吗?
人为因素包括金融心理试探,如主观估值错误以及选择性感知、非理性决策和实施不一致。人喜欢与自己和平相处,与世界和平相处,在后半生更是如此。所谓的“认知失调”即经济学家马克斯﹒吕舍尔·马蒂(Max Lüscher Marty)所称的思想与行为矛盾:“说‘我吸烟,吸烟有害健康’的人都出现了认知失调。说‘我吸烟,吸烟让我平静’的人都表现出了认知恒定。”行为金融学仍然只关注投资过程,寻求解释为什么投资者高买低卖,或者为什么我们贪婪地搞加密货币投机生意。关键是延伸行为心理学洞察,深入了解退休规划过程。
此外还有技术因素,包括导致“伪知识”或“伪可靠性”的假设。具体包括对通货膨胀、利率和预期寿命的假设,以及忽视我们无法量化或衡量但仍然存在或发生的风险,但这仍然可能发生:我们称之为不确定性。经济、监管或政治环境中可能存在不确定性,不确定性与自然、气候或我们的健康有关。虽然我们无法利用数学模型来预测它们发生的概率,但仅凭这一点并不意味着可以否定不确定性。
实际上,人们消耗资产时通常遵循4%法则。许多财富管理者、退休规划者和金融影响者仍然推崇“Bengen法则”,即假设每年消耗4%的资产,这样做很安全,可以保住投资。但是,在科学上早已证明这一规则是错误的(例如,W.Pfau在2017年推翻了这项规则)。
按照4%法则,源源不断地从资产中抽取资金。然而,开始退出时遭遇强烈的市场负面波动严重不利于长期财富前景。可惜,许多退休规划者忽视了这种被称为回报序列风险的影响,导致退休人员在享受良好健康和长寿的同时也可能会耗尽资金。
如果在退休规划一开始就尽早解决错误,那么在很大程度上可以避免此类错误。因此,退休顾问应具备实践经验,掌握最新知识和丰富的实操技能。
风险是无法完全避免的,通常,最大的风险就是不再冒险。不做决定也是一种决定,不过这是个糟糕的决定。没有绝对的确定性,但确定在人力所及的范围已尽人事是非常有益。在您能平静而满足地回顾往昔,享受退休生活而不必担心经济问题时,就已经实现了自己的目标。

以下为Reto Spring老师的原稿
Why retirement plans go wrong – and how to get them right
As a rule of thumb, one in two retirement plans must be disqualified as flawed and inadequate. What are the reasons and how can mistakes be avoided?
Even wealthy people are afraid of having life left at the end of their money. And despite many technical aids and a great deal of retirement planning, there is no absolute certainty that our calculations and retirement plans will work out as we wish. Reasons are manyfold: human as well as technical factors make about every second retirement plan missing its targets. Would you board a plane if you knew that the probability of reaching your desired destination would be only 50%?
Human factors include financial psychological heuristics such as subjective valuation errors as well as selective perception, irrational decisions and inconsistent implementations. People like to be at peace with themselves and the world, and more so in the second half of their life. There is a bon mot about "cognitive dissonance," as contradictions in thinking and acting are called, by the economist Max Lüscher-Marty: "Whoever states, I smoke, and smoking is harmful to health, experiences cognitive dissonance. Whoever states, I smoke, and smoking calms me down, experiences cognitive constancy." Behavioral finance still focuses exclusively on the investment process, seeking explanations for why investors buy at highs and exit at lows, or why we greedily speculate in cryptocurrencies. The key here is to extend behavioral psychology insights to the retirement planning process.
More technical factors include assumptions leading to "fake knowledge" or "pseudo reliability." These include assumptions about inflation, interest rates and life expectancy, as well as the neglect of risks that we cannot quantify or measure, but that nevertheless exist or may occur: Let's call them uncertainties. These can occur in the economic, regulatory, or political environment, have to do with nature, the climate or our health. Just because we can't cast the probability of occurrence in a mathematical model, doesn't mean we can negate it.
In practice, people when depleting their assets, often adhere to the 4% rule. Many wealth managers, retirement planners, and financial influencers still advocate the "Bengen Rule", which postulates that if you consume 4% of your assets each year, you are on the safe side and will preserve your investment. Though, the rule has been scientifically disproved for long (e.g., W. Pfau in 2017).
According to the 4 % rule, money is continuously withdrawn from the assets. However, strong negative market fluctuations at the beginning of the withdrawal process will be seriously detrimental for the long-term wealth perspective. Unfortunately, this effect, known as sequence of return risk, is disregarded by many retirement planners, with the effect that retirees, while enjoying good health and a long life, may run out of money.
Mistakes of such kind can be avoided to a large extent, if they are early addressed at the beginning of retirement planning. To this end, retirement advisors should have practical experience, up-to-date knowledge as well as implementation skills.
Risks cannot be completely avoided. Often, the biggest risk is to take no more risk. And not making a decision is also a decision, though a bad one. There is no absolute certainty. But the certainty of having done everything humanly possible is highly beneficial enough. You reach your goal when you can look back on your life calmly and contentedly and enjoy your retirement with no financial worries.
Reto Spring is a Swiss financial planner. He holds a Swiss Postgraduate Diploma of Higher Education in Financial Planning (Financial Planning Expert) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) license. He is the Chairman of the Swiss Financial Planners Association FPVS. Reto has been working as an independent fee-based advisor for physicians and entrepreneurs with a focus on retirement planning. Today, he lectures financial planning at Swiss educational institutions and publishes regularly. Reto Spring is also a regular lecturer and columnist for the IfFP Swiss Wealth Management Professional Training Center Shanghai.

Reto Spring
雷托·斯普林
瑞士金融理财规划师
➤ IfFP财富管理专业培训中心(上海)的常驻讲师和专栏作家瑞士金融理财规划师
➤ 拥有瑞士理财规划高等教育研究生文凭(理财规划专家)和注册理财规划师(CFP)执照
➤ 现任瑞士财务规划师协会FPVS主席
➤ 一直为医生和企业家提供独立的收费咨询服务,重点专注于退休规划方面。
➤ 在瑞士教育机构教授金融理财规划课程,并定期出版作品
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来源:IfFP瑞士财富管理专业培训中心
ID:IfFP瑞士财富管理专业培训中心 非授权不得转载,侵权必究