Costing the earth

让地球付出代价

【《让地球付出代价》是BBC广播4台的一档节目，关注人类对环境的影响以及环境的反应，质疑公认的事实，挑战当权者，报道改善世界的进展。】

Countries most exposed to climate change face higher costs of capital

受气候变化影响最大的国家面临更高的资本成本

Poor countries find themselves trapped in a vicious cycle

贫穷国家发现自己陷入了一个恶性循环

词汇

vicious cycle /恶性循环

Aug 17th 2019

IN EAST AFRICA millions of people are suffering from a prolonged drought. Deadly typhoons are wreaking havoc in Vietnam. Honduran coffee-farmers are seeing their crops wither in the heat. Poor countries have less capacity than rich ones to adapt to changing weather patterns, and tend to be closer to the equator, where weather patterns are becoming most volatile. As the world heats up, they will suffer most.

在东非，数百万人正在遭受长期干旱。致命的台风正在越南肆虐。洪都拉斯咖啡农看到他们的作物在高温下枯萎。穷国适应气候变化的能力不如富国，而且往往更接近赤道，而赤道的气候模式正变得最反复无常。随着世界变暖，他们将遭受最大的损失。

词汇

Havoc/大破坏；浩劫；蹂躏

Equator/赤道

Volatile/不稳定的；反复无常的

By 2030 poor countries will need to spend $140bn-300bn each year on adaptive measures, such as coastal defences, if they want to avoid the harm caused by climate change. That estimate, from the UN Environment Programme, assumes that global temperatures will be only 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, which seems unlikely. Adding to the costs, research suggests that these countries face higher interest rates than similar countries less exposed to climate risks. This raises the prospect of a vicious cycle, in which the most vulnerable countries pay more to borrow, making adaptation harder and them even more exposed.

到2030年，贫穷国家若想避免气候变化带来的危害，每年将需要花费1400亿至3000亿美元用于海岸防御等适应性措施。这一估计来自联合国环境规划署，他们假定到本世纪末，全球气温将仅比工业化前水平高出2摄氏度，但这似乎不太可能。此外，研究表明，这些国家面临的利率要高于受气候风险影响较小的类似国家。这就增加了恶性循环的可能性，在这种恶性循环中，最脆弱的国家需要支付更多的借款，这使得适应气候变化变得更加困难，而且他们的风险更大。

 

The research focuses on the V20, a group founded by 20 vulnerable countries whose membership has since grown to 48. The members are mostly poor, together accounting for less than 5% of global GDP. They include low-lying atolls, such as the Marshall Islands, and economies dominated by agriculture, such as Kenya. The researchers, led by Ulrich Volz of SOAS University of London and Bob Buhr of Imperial College Business School, examined sovereign-bond yields between 1996 and 2016 for 46 countries, 25 of them in the V20. After controlling for non-climate factors, such as income per person and levels of public debt, they estimate that V20 countries must pay interest rates 1.2 percentage points higher than comparable countries. That raises the V20’s borrowing costs by about 10%, equivalent to an extra $4bn each year in interest payments.

这项研究的重点是V20，这是一个由20个脆弱国家组成的组织，其成员已经增加到48个。这些成员国大多很穷，加起来不到全球GDP的5%。成员包含低洼的环礁，如马绍尔群岛，以及以农业为主的经济体，如肯尼亚。由伦敦大学亚非学院的乌尔里希•沃尔兹和帝国理工学院商学院的鲍勃•布尔领导的研究人员对46个国家1996年至2016年间的主权债券收益率进行了研究，其中25个国家属于V20。在控制了人均收入和公共债务水平等非气候因素后，他们估计V20国家必须支付比同等国家高1.2个百分点的利率。这将V20国家的借贷成本提高了约10%，相当于每年额外支付40亿美元的利息。

词汇

Atoll/环礁；环状珊瑚岛

 

Companies may also be charged more for loans if they are perceived as more exposed to climate-related risks. In a new paper researchers at SOAS looked at the cost of corporate debt for more than 60,000 firms in 80 countries. A fifth of the companies, holding about 3% of the total debt, were in the countries most vulnerable to climate change. They were charged interest rates on average 0.83 percentage points higher—again roughly a 10% premium.

如果企业被认为更容易受到气候相关风险的影响，它们的贷款可能也会被收取更高的费用。在亚非学院的一篇新论文中，研究人员对80个国家的6万多家公司的公司债务成本进行了研究。其中五分之一的公司(约占总债务的3%)位于最易受气候变化影响的国家。他们收取的利息平均高出0.83个百分点——大约是10%的溢价。

 

High interest rates largely reflect a greater risk of default. So credit-rating agencies are looking at climate risks, too. Undiversified economies that are reliant on agriculture are particularly susceptible, says Marie Diron of Moody’s. In the 37 countries that the firm thinks are most vulnerable, farming accounts for 44% of employment on average. (Together they have issued $2.8trn of sovereign debt, about 4% of the world’s total.) Those relying on tourism could also be in trouble. And climate-exposed countries often have weak institutions, says Ms Diron. They struggle to plan for and respond to disasters.

高利率在很大程度上反映了更大的违约风险。因此，信用评级机构也在关注气候风险。穆迪公司的玛丽•迪伦说，依赖农业的单一经济体尤其容易受到影响。在该公司认为最脆弱的37个国家中，平均44%的就业来自农业。(它们总共发行了2.8万亿美元的主权债务，约占全球总债务的4%。)那些依赖旅游业的国家也可能陷入困境。迪伦女士说，受气候影响的国家往往公共机构薄弱。他们努力于计划和应对灾难。

词汇

Undiversified/单一的；无变化的；千篇一律的

 

Some of the smaller vulnerable countries have been attempting to build climate resilience by pooling insurance risk to make premiums more affordable. The first such attempt was the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, which has paid out $139m since it was founded in 2007. The payouts help alleviate cashflow problems after disasters, reassuring investors and credit-rating agencies. In the past five years similar insurance schemes have popped up in sub-Saharan Africa, Central America and the Pacific.

一些易受气候变化影响的小国家一直在试图通过分担保险风险来提高保费的可承受性，从而增强气候适应能力。第一个此类尝试是加勒比巨灾风险保险基金(Caribbean disaster Risk Insurance Facility)，自2007年成立以来，该基金已支付1.39亿美元。这些支出有助于缓解灾难后的现金流问题，安抚投资者和信用评级机构。在过去的五年里，类似的保险计划在撒哈拉以南的非洲、中美洲和太平洋地区出现。

 

Others are seeking to reduce the interest-rate premium with “blended finance”, whereby multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank bear part of the risk for mitigation and climate-resilience projects. In April the V20 launched such a programme. Officials plan to apply to use $500m from the UN’S Green Climate Fund in the V20. Such schemes will help, but only a bit. In truth, climate-vulnerable countries can do little to offset the rise in the cost of capital.

其他国家则寻求通过“混合融资”来降低利率溢价，即由世界银行(World Bank)和亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)等多边机构承担减缓和气候适应项目的部分风险。今年4月，V20国家中推出了这样一个项目。官员们计划在V20中申请使用来自联合国绿色气候基金的5亿美元。这样的计划会有所帮助，但只是一点点。事实上，易受气候影响的国家几乎无法弥补资本成本的上升。

词汇

Mitigation/ 减轻；缓和；平静