【管理辞典】逃跑风险 / Flight risk

「释义」

逃跑风险原指被执法机关羁押的人有可能潜逃的风险。

在管理中，惠普用逃跑风险指数，向管理层汇报预测员工离职的意向。

「应用场景」

同样的概念也适用于预测性取向、种族、健康状况、定位和离职意向。即便一个模型综合来讲不是很准确，但针对相对有限的群体，也可能准确地预测到这些信息。

The same concept applies when predicting sexual orientation, race, health status, location, and your intentions to leave your job. Even if a model isn’t highly accurate in general, it can still reveal with high confidence — for a limited group — things like sexual orientation, race, or ethnicity.

很好理解人们为什么不想让其他人知道这些信息。2013年惠普预测将有超过30万员工可能离职——相关指标被惠普称为逃跑风险指数，并被提交给管理者。如果计划离职，你大概不会想在正式提出之前让领导知道。

It’s easy to think of reasons why people wouldn’t want someone to know these things. As of 2013, Hewlett-Packard was predictively scoring its more than 300,000 workers with the probability of whether they’d quit their job — HP called this the Flight Risk score, and it was delivered to managers. If you’re planning to leave, your boss would probably be the last person you’d want to find out before it’s official.

以上文字选自《哈佛商业评论》中文版2020年12月刊《预测类技术可能面临道德批判》

艾瑞克·西格尔（Eric Siegel）丨文

马冰仑 丨编辑