3 Simple Habits to Improve Your Critical Thinking

by Helen Lee Bouygues

A few years ago, a CEO assured me that his company was the market leader. “Clients will not leave for competitors,” he added. “It costs too much for them to switch.” Within weeks, the manufacturing giant Procter & Gamble elected not to renew its contract with the firm. The CEO was shocked — but he shouldn’t have been.

几年前，一位CEO很有自信地告诉我，他的公司是所在市场的领先者。他还对我说：“客户是不会转去竞争对手那里的，因为换公司的成本太高了。”然而不到几周，制造业巨头宝洁公司却选择了不与他的公司续约。这位CEO对此震惊不已，但实际上，这件事不应该让他感到意外。

For more than 20 years, I've helped struggling organizations. Sometimes they reach out because they have been mismanaged. Sometimes they have not stayed in front of changing technologies. In a few cases, members of the senior team were simply negligent. But in my experience, these organizational problems shared a root cause: A lack of critical thinking.

这20多年来，我一直都在帮助陷入困境的组织。他们会来找我，有时是因为组织的管理不当，有时是因为他们没有处在新技术的前沿，甚至有几家组织出现了高管团队成员失职的情况。但是，以我的经验来说，这些组织发生这类问题，都是由同一个根本原因造成的，那就是：批判性思维的缺乏。

Too many business leaders are simply not reasoning through pressing issues, taking the time to evaluate a topic from all sides. Leaders often jump to the first conclusion, whatever the evidence. Even worse, C-suite leaders will just choose the evidence that supports their prior beliefs. A lack of metacognition — or thinking about thinking — is also a major driver, making people simply overconfident.

面对各种紧急的问题，有太多商业领袖不会理性地思考，也不会花时间从各个方面进行评估。很多时候，领导者会在缺乏确凿证据的情况下妄下结论。更糟的是，有些C级高管只会选择相信那些与他们之前的想法一致的证据。另一个主要原因就是元认知（对思考的思考）的缺乏：一旦缺乏了元认知，人们就会变得太过自信。

The good news is that critical thinking is a learned skill. To help people get better at it, I recently started the nonprofit Reboot Foundation. Based on my personal experience as well some of the work of our researchers, I've pulled together three simple things that you can do to improve your critical thinking skills:

好消息是，批判性思维是一门可习得的技能。我整理出了三个简单的做法，这些做法是以我个人的经验和我们的研究人员的一些研究成果为根据的。

1. Question assumptions / 质疑假设

2.  Reason through logic/ 用逻辑进行推理

3.  Diversify thought / 运用多元化思维

Now, you might be thinking, “I do that already.” And you probably do, but just not as deliberately and thoroughly as you could. Cultivating these three key habits of mind go a long way in helping you become better at an increasingly desired skill in the job market.

这个时候，你可能会想：“这些方法，我已经在用了呀！”就算如此，你也有可能用得不够刻意、不够彻底。如今，批判性思维能力受到了越来越多雇主的青睐；只要培养起这三个重要的思维习惯，你将能有效地提升这一技能。

Question assumptions

质疑假设

When I work to turn around an organization, I'll typically start by questioning the firm’s assumptions. I once visited dozens of stores of a retail chain, posing as a shopper. I soon discovered that the company had presumed that its customers had far more disposable income than they really had. This erroneous belief made the company overprice its clothing. They would have made millions more each year if they had sold lower-priced shirts and pants.

我在整顿一家公司的时候，通常会先质疑公司的假设。有一次，我乔装成了购物者，走访了某个零售连锁店的数十家商店。我很快就发现，顾客的实际可支配收入比公司的假设少了很多。这一错误的假设，导致公司给服装定下了过高的价格。要是公司的衬衫和裤子的价格低了一些，他们每年就会多赚数百万美元。

Of course, it's hard to question everything. Imagine going through your day asking yourself: Is the sky really blue? What if the person next to me isn't my colleague but her twin sister? How do I really know that the economy won't implode tomorrow?

当然，要质疑所有的假设是很难的。想象一下，你一整天都在问自己：天空真的是蓝色的吗？如果我身旁的那个人不是我的同事，而是她的双胞胎姐妹，那我该怎么办？我要怎么确定经济不会明天就崩溃？

The first step in questioning assumptions, then, is figuring out when to question assumptions. Turns out, a questioning approach is particularly helpful when the stakes are high.

所以，质疑假设的第一步，就是弄清楚什么时候才要质疑假设。事实证明，在高风险的情况下，质疑的做法特别有效。

So if you are in a discussion about long-term company strategy upon which years of effort and expense will be based, be sure to ask basic questions about your beliefs: How do you know that business will increase? What does the research say about your expectations about the future of the market? Have you taken time to step into the figurative shoes of your customers as a “secret shopper”?

所以，如果你正在参与有关公司长远策略的讨论，而这一策略将耗费多年的努力和大量的资金，你就要针对自己的想法提出一些基本的问题：你怎么知道业务会增长？是否有研究支持你对未来市场的展望？你有没有伪装成“秘密购物者”，从顾客的角度看待自己的业务？

Another way to question your assumptions is to consider alternatives. You might ask: What if our clients changed? What if our suppliers went out of business? These sorts of questions help you gain new and important perspectives that help hone your thinking.

另一个质疑假设的方法，就是考虑替代方案。你可以问问自己：要是客户换去了其他公司，怎么办？要是我们的供应商倒闭了，怎么办？提出这类问题，能帮助你获得新的重要观点，从而磨炼你的思考能力。

Reason through logic

用逻辑进行推理

Years ago, I took on the task of turning around the division of a large lingerie company. The growth of one of its major product lines had been declining for years. No one could figure out why.

几年前，我接下了整顿一家大型内衣公司的某个部门的任务。多年来，这个部门的一个主要产品线的增长一直都在下滑，但没有人想得出原因何在。

It turned out that the company had made the reasoning mistake of over-generalization, drawing a sweeping conclusion based on limited or insufficient evidence. Namely, the company believed that all of their international customers had similar preferences in lingerie. So it shipped the same styles of brassieres to every store across Europe.

原来，公司在推理上犯了以偏概全的错误，也就是说，公司在证据有限或不足的情况下，草率地下了结论。公司以为所有的国际顾客对内衣的偏好都是相似的，于是就向欧洲各地的所有商店供应了相同款式的胸罩。

When my team started talking to staff and consumers, we realized that customers in different countries reported very distinct tastes and preferences. British women, for example, tended to buy lacy bras in bright colors. Italian women preferred beige bras, with no lace. And those in the United States led the world in sports bra purchases.

我的团队跟员工和消费者交谈后发现，不同国家的顾客的品味和偏好截然不同。举个例子：英国女性喜欢购买色彩鲜艳的蕾丝胸罩；意大利女性则喜欢没有蕾丝的米色胸罩；而运动胸罩在美国的销量领先于世界。

For this lingerie company, improving their reasoning helped the firm dramatically improve its bottom line. The good news is that the formal practice of logic dates back at least 2,000 years to Aristotle. Over those two millennia, logic has demonstrated its merit by reaching sound conclusions.

推理能力的提升，让这家内衣公司的利润增加了许多。好消息是，逻辑的正式实践至少可以追溯到两千年前亚里士多德的时代。在这两千年里，人们运用逻辑得出了合理的结论，可见逻辑思维是有效的。

So at your organization, pay close attention to the “chain” of logic constructed by a particular argument. Ask yourself: Is the argument supported at every point by evidence? Do all the pieces of evidence build on each other to produce a sound conclusion?

所以，每当有人向你提出论点时，你要密切注意这个论点所依赖的“逻辑链”。你要问问自己：这个论点的每一个环节是不是都有证据支持？所有的证据是不是环环相扣，从而得出合理的结论？

Being aware of common fallacies can also allow you to think more logically. For instance, people often engage in what’s known as “post hoc” thinking. In this fallacy, people believe that “because event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X.”

此外，只要对一些常见的谬误有所了解，你的思维也将会变得更有逻辑性。举个例子：很多人的思维受到了“后此谬误”的影响。所谓后此谬误，指的是“由于Y发生在X之后，所以Y一定是由X造成的”的错误推理。

So, for instance, a manager may believe that their sales agents rack up more sales in the spring because they're fired up by the motivational speeches offered at the annual sales conference in February — but until that assumption is tested, there's no way the manager can know if their belief is correct.

举个例子：一名管理者可能会认为，他的销售代理在春季的销售额有所增加，是因为他们参加了二月的年度销售会议，受到了激励演讲的启发。但是，除非对这一假设进行测试，否则这名管理者不可能知道这个想法究竟正不正确。

Seek out diversity of thought and collaboration

多元化的思维和合作

For years, I was the only female partner on McKinsey's transformation team. And today, while I serve on more than a half-dozen corporate boards, I am typically the only Asian and the only woman in the room during meetings.

我曾经是麦肯锡公司转型团队中的唯一一个女性合伙人，而且这个局面持续了很多年。如今，我是超过六个企业董事会的成员，但是每次开会的时候，我通常都是房间里的唯一一个亚洲人、唯一一个女性。

By virtue of my background and life experiences, I tend to see things differently from the people around me. This has often played to my advantage. But I'm not immune to groupthink, either. When I'm around people similar to me for whatever reason — age, politics, religion— I try to solicit different points of view. It makes me a better thinker.

由于我的背景和生活经历跟别人不一样，所以我看待事物的角度也跟我周围的人不一样。虽然这一点常常让我处于优势，但是我也不是不会陷入群体思维的陷阱。所以，当我周围的人在某些方面（比如年龄、政治立场、宗教）跟我相似的时候，我就会试着征求不同的观点。这样做能让我成为更好的思考者。

It's natural for people to group themselves together with people who think or act like them. This happens especially readily online, where it's so easy to find a specific cultural niche. Social media algorithms can narrow our perspectives further, serving up only news that fits our individual beliefs.

思维和行为相似的人聚集在一起，本来就是很自然的事情，特别是在网上，因为人们很容易就能在网上找到特定的小众文化群体。社交媒体算法也会使我们的观点进一步变得狭隘，因为它只会提供一些与自己的想法一致的新闻。

This is a problem. If everyone in our social circles thinks as we do, we become more rigid in our thinking, and less likely to change our beliefs on the basis of new information. In fact, the more people listen to people who share their views, research shows the more polarized their views become.

问题就出在这里：如果我们社交圈子中的人的想法跟自己一样，我们的思维就会变得固化，即使面对新的信息，我们的想法也会变得更不容易改变。事实上，研究表明，人们越是听到别人表达出与自己相同的观点，他们的观点就越会变得两极分化。

It's crucial to get outside your personal bubble. You can start small. If you work in accounting, make friends with people in marketing. If you always go to lunch with senior staff, go to a ball game with your junior colleagues. Training yourself this way will help you escape your usual thinking and gain richer insights.

所以，不要把自己隔离起来。你可以从小的方面做起。如果你从事会计工作，那就去跟从事营销的人交朋友。如果你总是跟资深的人员吃午饭，那就跟资历较浅的同事一起去看球赛。这样的训练方法，能帮助你摆脱平时的思维，从而让你得到更丰富的洞察力。

In team settings, give people the chance to give their opinions independently without the influence of the group. When I ask for advice, for instance, I typically withhold my own preferences and ask team members to email me their opinions in separate notes. This tactic helps prevent people from engaging in groupthink.

你也要给予团队成员独立发表意见的机会，不让他们受到团队的影响。举个例子：当我向团队成员征求意见时，我通常会隐瞒自己的偏好，然后要求大家分别用电子邮件把自己的想法发给我。使用这个策略，能够避免群体思维的发生。

While these simple tactics may sound easy or even obvious, they're rare in practice, particularly in the business world, and too many organizations don’t take the time to engage in robust forms of reasoning. But the important work of critical thinking pays off. While luck plays a role — sometimes small, sometimes large — in a company’s successes, the most important business victories are achieved through thinking smart.

虽然这些简单的策略听起来容易做到，甚至是显而易见的，但是很少有人付诸实践，特别是在商界中，而且很多组织也不肯花时间进行扎实的推理。但是，批判性思维的采用是一项重要的工作，它能让你得到回报。虽然运气对一家公司的成功起到了可大可小的作用，但是公司在业务上的最重要的胜利，是通过明智的思考取得的。

海伦·李·布依格（Helen Lee Bouygues）|文

海伦·李·布依格是巴黎瑞布基金会（Reboot Foundation）的总裁。她曾经是麦肯锡公司的合伙人，并且曾在十多家公司短暂担任过首席执行官、首席财务官或首席运营官。

欧明谓 |译     周强|编校