The world economy: Goodbye globalisation

--A more nationalistic and self-sufficient era beckons. It won’t be richer—or safer 

经济学人5月刊

The underlying anarchy of global governance is being exposed. France and Britain have squabbled over quarantine rules, C is threatening Australia with punitive tariffs for demanding an investigation into the virus’s origins and the White House remains on the warpath about trade. Despite some instances of co-operation during the pandemic, such as the Federal Reserve’s loans to other central banks, America has been reluctant to act as the world’s leader. Chaos and division at home have damaged its prestige. C’s secrecy and bullying have confirmed that it is unwilling—and unfit—to pick up the mantle. Around the world, public opinion is shifting away from globalisation. People have been disturbed to find that their health depends on a brawl to import protective equipment and on the migrant workers who work in care homes and harvest crops.

an·archy n. /ˈænəki/n. 无政府状态；混乱；无秩序

squab·ble v. /ˈskwɒbl/  [ V ] ~ (with sb) (about/over sth) to argue noisily about sth that is not very important （为琐事）争吵，发生口角

punitive adj. /ˈpjuːnətɪv/  

1.intended as punishment 惩罚性的；刑罚的；处罚 •He was awarded punitive damages (= in a court of law) . 法庭判给他处罚性的损害赔偿。

2.very severe and that people find very difficult to pay （租税等）苛刻的·punitive taxes 惩罚性征税

On the warpath: 准备作战；正在作战；盛怒；大发雷霆

mantle /ˈmæntl/  

1.[ sing. ] the ~ of sb/sth ( literary ) the role and responsibilities of an important person or job, especially when they are passed on from one person to another （可继承的）责任，职责，衣钵 •The vice-president must now take on the mantle of supreme power. 副总统现在必须承担起最高权力的重任。

2. C ] ( literary ) a layer of sth that covers a surface 覆盖层 •hills with a mantle of snow 白雪覆盖的山峦 3.（尤指旧时的）披风，斗篷； 4.（煤气灯的）白炽罩；5.地幔

brawl /brɔːl/  a noisy and violent fight involving a group of people, usually in a public place 喧闹；斗殴；闹事  •a drunken brawl 酒后闹事

This is just the start. Although the flow of information is largely free outside China, the movement of people, goods and capital is not. Consider people first. The Trump administration is proposing to curtail immigration further, arguing that jobs should go to Americans instead. Other countries are likely to follow. Travel is restricted, limiting the scope to find work, inspect plants and drum up orders. Some 90% of people live in countries with largely closed borders. Many governments will open up only to countries with similar health protocols: one such “travel bubble” is mooted to include Australia and New Zealand and, perhaps, Taiwan and Singapore. The industry is signalling that the disruption to travel will be lasting. Airbus has cut production by a third and Emirates, a symbol of globalisation, expects no recovery until 2022.

curtail v. /kɜːˈteɪl/  [ VN ] ( formal ) to limit sth or make it last for a shorter time 限制；缩短；减缩 • Spending on books has been severely curtailed. 购书开支已被大大削减。

protocol n.   /ˈprəʊtəkɒl/n. 协议；草案；礼仪 v. 拟定

moot /muːt/  ( NAmE ) unlikely to happen and therefore not worth considering （因不大可能发生而）无考虑意义的 •He argued that the issue had become moot since the board had changed its policy. 他争辩说这项议题已变得毫无实际意义，因为董事会已经改变了政策。 ( formal ) to suggest an idea for people to discuss propose, put forward 提出…供讨论

a moot ˈpoint/ˈquestion  a matter about which there may be disagreement or confusion 悬而未决的事；有争议的问题

Trade will suffer as countries abandon the idea that firms and goods are treated equally regardless of where they come from. Governments and central banks are asking taxpayers to underwrite national firms through their stimulus packages, creating a huge and ongoing incentive to favour them. And the push to bring supply chains back home in the name of resilience is accelerating. On May 12th Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, told the nation that a new era of economic self-reliance has begun. Japan’s covid-19 stimulus includes subsidies for firms that repatriate factories; European Union officials talk of “strategic autonomy” and are creating a fund to buy stakes in firms. America is urging Intel to build plants at home. Digital trade is thriving but its scale is still modest. The sales abroad of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft are equivalent to just 1.3% of world exports.

Narendra Modi：印度现任首相

repatriate v.   /ˌriːˈpætrieɪt/  、

1. to send or bring sb back to their own country 遣送回国；遣返 •The refugees were forcibly repatriated. 难民被强制遣送回国。

2. ( business 商 ) to send money or profits back to your own country 寄（钱）回国；将（利润）调回本国

The flow of capital is also suffering, as long-term investment sinks. Chinese venture-capital investment in America dropped to $400m in the first quarter of this year, 60% below its level two years ago. Multinational firms may cut their cross-border investment by a third this year. America has just instructed its main federal pension fund to stop buying Chinese shares, and so far this year countries representing 59% of world GDP have tightened their rules on foreign investment. As governments try to pay down their new debts by taxing firms and investors, some countries may be tempted to further restrict the flow of capital across borders.

It’s lonely out there

Don’t be fooled that a trading system with an unstable web of national controls will be more humane or safer. Poorer countries will find it harder to catch up and, in the rich world, life will be more expensive and less free. The way to make supply chains more resilient is not to domesticate them, which concentrates risk and forfeits economies of scale, but to diversify them. Moreover, a fractured world will make solving global problems harder, including finding a vaccine and securing an economic recovery.

domesticate v.   /dəˈmestɪkeɪt/  

1.to make a wild animal used to living with or working for humans 驯养，驯化（动物）

2.to grow plants or crops for human use 驯化，培育（植物或农作物）

3.使精于家务；使喜爱家居 •Some men are very hard to domesticate. 有些男人很难做好家务活。

forfeit /ˈfɔːfɪt/   

N. something that a person has to pay, or sth that is taken from them, because they have done sth wrong 罚金；没收物

V. to lose sth or have sth taken away from you because you have done sth wrong （因犯错）丧失，被没收

Adj. [ not before noun ] ( formal ) taken away from sb as a punishment 被罚；被没收

fracture /ˈfræktʃə/   

1.N-COUNT A fracture is a crack or break in something, especially a bone. (尤指骨头) 断裂

•  At least one-third of all women over ninety have sustained a hip fracture. 90岁以上的妇女中至少有1/3遭受过髋骨骨折。

2.V-T/V-I If something such as a bone is fractured or fractures, it gets a crack or break in it. 折断  •  You've fractured a rib, maybe more than one. 你断了一根肋骨，也许不止一根。

3. V-T/V-I If something such as an organization or society is fractured or fractures, it splits into several parts or stops existing. 分裂 •  His policy risks fracturing the coalition.   他的政策有分裂联盟的危险。

Tragically, this logic is no longer fashionable. Those three body-blows have so wounded the open system of trade that the powerful arguments in its favour are being neglected. Wave goodbye to the greatest era of globalisation—and worry about what is going to take its place.