经济学顶刊Journal of Development Economics （双月刊）2023年第2期
Journal of Development Economics （双月刊）2023年第2期
——更多动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独
1.Rethinking the Lebanese economic miracle: The extreme concentration of income and wealth in Lebanon, 2005–2014
反思黎巴嫩经济奇迹:2005-2014年黎巴嫩收入和财富的极度集中
Lydia Assouad
I combine household surveys, national accounts and unique personal income tax records to produce the first estimates of the national income distribution in an Arab country, Lebanon. I find that income is extremely concentrated over the 2005–2014 period: The top 1 and 10 percent of the adult population received almost 25 and 55 percent of national income on average, placing Lebanon among the countries with the highest levels of income inequality in the world. These results challenge a long lasting narrative according to which inequality levels are not that high in the Middle East. They also confirm results from a large literature that emphasizes how the Lebanese sectarian-based mode of governance has allowed the ruling elite to extract large rents for decades and at the expense of the majority of citizens.
我将家庭调查、国民核算和独特的个人所得税记录结合起来，首次对阿拉伯国家黎巴嫩的国民收入分配进行了估计。我发现，在2005年至2014年期间，黎巴嫩的收入极为集中：收入最高的1%和10%的成年人平均获得了近25%和55%的国民收入，这使黎巴嫩成为世界上收入不平等程度最高的国家之一。这些结果挑战了一种长期存在的说法，即中东的不平等程度并没有那么高。他们还证实了大量文献的结果，这些文献强调黎巴嫩以宗派为基础的治理模式如何允许统治精英几十年来以牺牲大多数公民的利益为代价榨取巨额租金。
2.Tax revenue and mobile money in developing countries
发展中国家的税收和移动货币
Ablam Estel Apeti, Eyah Denise Edoh
This paper analyzes the effect of mobile money adoption on tax revenue performance in a large sample of 104 developing countries over the period 1990–2019. Estimations, based on the entropy balancing method, show that mobile money significantly increases tax revenue in mobile money countries relative to non-mobile money countries. This result remains robust to various robustness tests and may depend on time perspective, the type of mobile money service, and some structural factors, including a country's level of development, corruption level, rural population size, inflation rate, education level, tax revenue sample 25th percentile and average, revenue administration efficiency, and mature markets. A first level of disaggregation of tax revenue into direct and indirect tax revenue shows that mobile money increases both types of tax revenue, with a larger impact on direct tax revenue. A second level of disaggregation of these two components into different sub-categories shows that the effect on direct tax revenue is driven by personal income tax revenue and corporate income tax revenue and that on indirect tax revenue is determined by taxes on goods and services. Finally, a broadening tax base (proxied by GDP per capita), better institutional quality, and tax payment process simplification are the main channels through which mobile money adoption increases tax performance in developing countries.
本文分析了1990年至2019年期间104个发展中国家采用移动货币对税收绩效的影响。基于熵平衡方法的估计表明，相对于非移动货币国家，移动货币显著增加了移动货币国家的税收收入。这一结果在各种稳健性测试中仍然稳健，可能取决于时间视角、移动货币服务类型和一些结构性因素，包括一个国家的发展水平、腐败水平、农村人口规模、通货膨胀率、教育水平、税收样本第25百分位和平均值、税收管理效率和成熟市场。将税收收入分为直接税收入和间接税收入的第一个层次表明，移动货币增加了两种类型的税收收入，对直接税收入的影响更大。将这两个部分分解为不同的子类别的第二个层次表明，对直接税收入的影响是由个人所得税收入和企业所得税收入推动的，对间接税收入的影响是由商品和服务税决定的。最后，扩大税基(以人均GDP为代表)、提高制度质量和简化纳税流程是采用移动货币提高发展中国家税收绩效的主要途径。
3.Irrigation and the spatial pattern of local economic development in India
灌溉与印度地方经济发展的空间格局
David Blakeslee, Aaditya Dar, Ram Fishman, Samreen Malik, ... Karan Singh Bagavathinathan
We study the long-term impact of large-scale irrigation infrastructure on the composition of local economic activity in India. Our analysis uses high-resolution spatial data covering approximately 150,000 villages and towns and exploits spatial discontinuities in the coverage of irrigation projects. Irrigation increases agricultural output, wealth, and population density in rural villages. However, in towns it reduces population and nightlight density, the size of the non-agricultural sector, and large-firm activity. These results highlight the heterogeneous impacts that agricultural productivity gains can have on the patterns local economic development.
我们研究了大规模灌溉基础设施对印度地方经济活动构成的长期影响。我们的分析使用了覆盖约15万个村庄和城镇的高分辨率空间数据，并利用了灌溉项目覆盖中的空间不连续性。灌溉增加了农村的农业产量、财富和人口密度。然而，在城镇，它减少了人口和夜间照明密度，减少了非农业部门的规模和大型企业的活动。这些结果强调了农业生产率提高对地方经济发展模式的异质影响。
4.Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India
该领域的主观风险信念功能:来自印度烹饪燃料选择和健康的证据
Hide-Fumi Yokoo, Toshi H. Arimura, Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay, Hajime Katayama
We investigate the accuracy of the perceptions of health risks in India. The context of our study is the risk of developing physical symptoms related to household air pollution caused by cooking. Using field data collected from 588 respondents in 17 villages in West Bengal, we regress the probability of symptoms on fuel choices to predict respondent-specific health risk changes. The estimated risks, which we treat as objective risks, are then compared with the corresponding subjective probabilistic beliefs, which are elicited by an interactive method with visual aids. Our results show that, on average, the respondents slightly underestimate the change in risk when switching from cooking with firewood to cooking with liquefied petroleum gas, even though their beliefs are qualitatively correct. The results further show that risk misperception is associated only with religion among individuals’ observed characteristics, suggesting that their unobserved characteristics play a substantial role in risk misperception.
我们调查了印度人对健康风险认知的准确性。我们研究的背景是与烹饪引起的家庭空气污染相关的身体症状的风险。利用从西孟加拉邦17个村庄的588名受访者收集的现场数据，我们回归了燃料选择的症状概率，以预测受访者特定的健康风险变化。我们将估计的风险视为客观风险，然后将其与相应的主观概率信念进行比较，这是由视觉辅助的交互式方法引起的。我们的研究结果显示，平均而言，受访者略微低估了从柴火烹饪到液化石油气烹饪的风险变化，尽管他们的信念在本质上是正确的。结果进一步表明，在个体的可观察特征中，风险误解仅与宗教相关，这表明个体的不可观察特征在风险误解中起着重要作用。
5.Measuring remittances
测算汇款
Giuseppe De Arcangelis, Alexander Fertig, Yuna Liang, Peter Srouji, Dean Yang
Remittances received by households from international migrants are of interest in an increasing number of microeconomic analyses. Making use of novel data, we measure misreporting of remittances sent by migrants in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to remittance recipients in the Philippines. We obtained administrative transaction data from a sample of Filipino migrants who were clients of a popular money transfer operator (MTO). We then surveyed these migrants as well as their primary remittance recipients about the same remittance flows. Migrant-reported remittances are only 6% lower than MTO administrative records, and we cannot reject their equality. A custom smartphone app designed to facilitate migrant remittance reporting does not help raise reporting accuracy. Recipient-reported remittances are 23% lower than migrant reports on average. Recipients under-report even more when they receive remittances less frequently and when remittances make up a lower share of household income.
在越来越多的微观经济分析中，国际移民家庭收到的汇款引起了人们的兴趣。利用新颖的数据，我们测算了阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)的移民向菲律宾的汇款接收人汇款的误报情况。我们从菲律宾移民样本中获得了行政交易数据，他们是一家流行的汇款运营商(MTO)的客户。然后，我们就相同的汇款流量对这些移民及其主要汇款接收人进行了调查。移民报告的汇款仅比MTO行政记录低6%，我们不能拒绝他们的平等。为方便移民汇款报告而设计的定制智能手机应用程序无助于提高报告的准确性。接收人报告的汇款比移民报告的汇款平均低23%。当收款人收到汇款的频率较低和汇款占家庭收入的比例较低时，他们漏报的情况会更严重。
6.The insights and illusions of consumption measurements
消费测算的洞察和幻觉
Erich Battistin, Michele De Nadai, Nandini Krishnan
While household well-being derives from long-term average rates of consumption, welfare estimates rely on shorter-duration survey measurements. We develop a strategy to identify the distribution of these long-term rates by leveraging a large-scale randomization that elicited repeated short-duration measurements from diaries and recall questions. Identification stems from diary–recall differences in reports from the same household, does not require reports to be error-free, and hinges on a research design with broad replicability. Our strategy delivers practical and cost-effective suggestions for designing survey modules to yield the closest measurements of household well-being. We find little empirical support for the claim that acquisition diaries yield the most accurate measurement of poverty and inequality and offer new insights to interpret and reconcile diary–recall differences in household surveys.
家庭幸福来源于长期平均消费率，而福利估算则依赖于较短时间的调查测算。我们开发了一种策略，通过利用大规模随机化，从日记和回忆问题中引出重复的短期测算，来确定这些长期率的分布。识别源于同一家庭报告的日记回忆差异，不要求报告无错误，并取决于具有广泛可复制性的研究设计。我们的策略为设计调查模块提供实用和具有成本效益的建议，以产生最接近的家庭幸福测算。我们发现很少有实证支持这样一种说法，即获取日记能最准确地衡量贫困和不平等，并为解释和调和家庭调查中日记回忆的差异提供了新的见解。
7.No bulls: Experimental evidence on the impact of veterinarian ratings in Pakistan
没有公牛:巴基斯坦兽医评级影响的实验证据
Syed Ali Hasanain, Muhammad Yasir Khan, Arman Rezaee
We implement a platform to crowdsource information about service provision quality and prices charged and reveal this information to consumers in a market – artificial insemination of livestock in Punjab, Pakistan – where individual signals of quality are noisy. We measure the impact of this information revelation using a randomized controlled trial. Farmers receiving information enjoy 25% higher insemination success and no higher prices than controls. These effects are due to existing veterinarians increasing effort, rather than farmers switching to possibly higher-quality providers. These results illustrate the viability of information clearinghouses successfully aggregating information in low-capacity markets. They also suggest the importance of doing so by implying large welfare benefits from our low-cost information intervention.
我们搭建了一个平台，将有关服务提供质量和收费价格的信息众包，并在一个市场(巴基斯坦旁遮普省的牲畜人工授精)向消费者披露这一信息，在这个市场中，个人质量信号很嘈杂。我们使用随机对照试验来衡量这一信息披露的影响。收到信息的农民的授精成功率比对照组高25%，而且价格并不比对照组高。这些影响是由于现有兽医的努力，而不是农民转向可能更高质量的供应商。这些结果说明了信息交换中心在低容量市场成功地聚合信息的可行性。他们还暗示了这样做的重要性，暗示了我们低成本的信息干预带来的巨大福利。
8.Measuring consumption over the phone: Evidence from a survey experiment in urban Ethiopia
通过电话测量消费:来自埃塞俄比亚城市调查实验的证据
Gashaw T. Abate, Alan de Brauw, Kalle Hirvonen, Abdulazize Wolle
The paucity of reliable, timely household consumption data in many low- and middle-income countries have made it difficult to assess how global poverty has evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard poverty measurement requires collecting household consumption data, which is rarely collected by phone. To test the feasibility of collecting consumption data over the phone, we conducted a survey experiment in urban Ethiopia, randomly assigning households to either phone or in-person interviews. In the phone survey, average per capita consumption is 23 percent lower and the estimated poverty headcount is twice as high than in the in-person survey. We observe evidence of survey fatigue occurring early in phone interviews but not in in-person interviews; the bias is correlated with household characteristics. While the phone survey mode provides comparable estimates when measuring diet-based food security, it is not amenable to measuring consumption using the ‘best practice’ approach originally devised for in-person surveys.
许多低收入和中等收入国家缺乏可靠、及时的家庭消费数据，因此难以评估2019冠状病毒病大流行期间全球贫困的演变情况。标准的贫困测量需要收集家庭消费数据，而这些数据很少通过电话收集。为了测试通过电话收集消费数据的可行性，我们在埃塞俄比亚城市进行了一项调查实验，随机分配家庭进行电话采访或当面采访。在电话调查中，人均消费比现场调查低23%，估计贫困人数是现场调查的两倍。我们观察到调查疲劳的证据出现在电话访谈的早期，而不是在面对面访谈中;偏差与家庭特征相关。虽然电话调查模式在衡量基于饮食的粮食安全时提供了可比较的估计值，但它不适用于使用最初为面对面调查设计的“最佳实践”方法来衡量消费量。
9.Exhaustive or exhausting? Evidence on respondent fatigue in long surveys
累人还是让人筋疲力尽?长时间调查中受访者疲劳的证据
Dahyeon Jeong, Shilpa Aggarwal, Jonathan Robinson, Naresh Kumar, ... David Sungho Park
Living standards measurement surveys require sustained attention for several hours. We quantify survey fatigue by randomizing the order of questions in 2–3 hour-long in-person surveys. An additional hour of survey time increases the probability that a respondent skips a question by 10%–64%. Because skips are more common, the total monetary value of aggregated categories such as assets or expenditures declines as the survey goes on, and this effect is sizeable for some categories: for example, an extra hour of survey time lowers food expenditures by 25%. We find similar effect sizes within phone surveys in which respondents were already familiar with questions, suggesting that cognitive burden may be a key driver of survey fatigue.
生活水平测量调查需要几个小时的持续注意力。我们通过在2-3小时的面对面调查中随机分配问题的顺序来量化调查疲劳。额外一小时的调查时间会增加受访者跳过问题的概率10%-64%。由于省略更常见，资产或支出等汇总类别的总货币价值随着调查的进行而下降，这对某些类别的影响相当大:例如，额外一小时的调查时间可以减少25%的食品支出。我们在电话调查中发现了类似的效应大小，在这些调查中，受访者已经熟悉了问题，这表明认知负担可能是调查疲劳的关键驱动因素。
10.Delivery times in international competition: An empirical investigation
国际竞争中的交货时间:一项实证研究
Andrea Ciani, Karsten Mau
This paper investigates the role of timely delivery in international competition. Using a demand-side, industry-specific measure of time-sensitivity, we assess the effect of Chinese competition on the export performance of Eastern European transition economies into Western European (EU15) destination-product markets. Our empirical analysis relies on exploiting the increase of Chinese competition in global markets during the first decade of the 2000s. We find evidence of heterogeneous adjustments to Chinese competition among Eastern European exporters due to the differential importance of timely delivery across sectors (i.e. time-sensitivity). While we observe sizable real displacement effects, they appear to be at least 50 percent smaller for time-sensitive exports. Relying on firm-level customs data, we establish that this mechanism also plays a role for responses to Chinese competition within firms.
本文研究了及时交货在国际竞争中的作用。利用需求侧、行业特定的时间敏感性指标，我们评估了中国竞争对东欧转型经济体向西欧(欧盟15国)目的地产品市场出口绩效的影响。我们的实证分析依赖于利用中国在21世纪头十年在全球市场上日益增强的竞争力。我们发现东欧出口商对中国竞争的异质性调整的证据是，由于不同部门之间及时交货的重要性不同(即时间敏感性)。虽然我们观察到相当大的实际替代效应，但对于时间敏感的出口来说，这种效应似乎至少要小50%。基于企业层面的海关数据，我们发现这一机制在应对中国企业内部竞争时也发挥了一定作用。
11.Military investment and the rise of industrial clusters: Evidence from China’s self-strengthening movement
军事投资与产业集群的崛起:来自中国自强运动的证据
Shiyu Bo, Cong Liu, Yan Zhou
This paper investigates the short- and long-term impact of large-scale military investment on civilian industrial growth by focusing on China’s first attempt to modernize its military sector between 1861 and 1894. Panel data from 1858 to 1937 suggest that the program generated positive effects on civilian firm entry, but these effects appeared only after the government relaxed constraints on the entry of private firms. Long-term analysis shows that counties that received more military investment through the program, driven by plausibly exogenous ex ante political connections, had greater output in civilian industries in the 1930s. Analysis of the mechanisms suggest that the program boosted local economies through input–output linkages, human capital accumulation, and the rise of modern banks.
12.The freedom to choose: Theory and quasi-experimental evidence on cash transfer restrictions
选择的自由:现金转移限制的理论和准实验证据
Jade Siu, Olivier Sterck, Cory Rodgers
Should cash transfer programmes restrict consumer choice? For example, should food assistance delivered in cash be restricted to food and exclude temptation goods? Theoretically, restrictions induce (1) a substitution effect away from restricted goods and (2) a negative wealth effect if transfers are extra-marginal and the resale of goods is costly. The welfare impact on transfer recipients is negative. We test these predictions by exploiting a natural experiment in a refugee settlement in Kenya, where some refugees receive monthly cash transfers restricted to food while others receive unrestricted transfers. In line with theory, we find that restricted transfers increase participation in a shadow resale market and negatively affect non-food expenditure, temptation-goods spending, and subjective well-being. Consistent with theory, restrictions have no significant effect on food consumption. Our results show that policy-makers should avoid restrictions to maximise positive impacts on transfer beneficiaries, especially when extreme poverty implies that transfers are extra-marginal.
现金转移支付计划应该限制消费者的选择吗?例如，以现金形式提供的粮食援助是否应仅限于粮食而不包括诱惑物品?理论上，限制会导致(1)限制商品的替代效应;(2)如果转移是超边际的，并且商品的转售是昂贵的，则会产生负的财富效应。对转移支付受助人的福利影响为负。我们利用肯尼亚一个难民定居点的自然实验来验证这些预测，在那里，一些难民每月获得仅限于食物的现金转移，而另一些难民则获得不受限制的现金转移。根据理论，我们发现，限制性转移增加了影子转售市场的参与，并对非食品支出、诱惑商品支出和主观幸福感产生了负向影响。与理论一致，限制措施对食品消费没有显著影响。我们的研究结果表明，政策制定者应该避免限制，以最大限度地对转移支付受益人产生积极影响，特别是在极端贫困意味着转移支付属于超边际转移的情况下。
13.Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan
以机器学习和手机数据为目标的项目:来自阿富汗反贫困干预的证据
Emily L. Aiken, Guadalupe Bedoya, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Aidan Coville
Can mobile phone data improve program targeting? By combining rich survey data from a “big push” anti-poverty program in Afghanistan with detailed mobile phone logs from program beneficiaries, we study the extent to which machine learning methods can accurately differentiate ultra-poor households eligible for program benefits from ineligible households. We show that machine learning methods leveraging mobile phone data can identify ultra-poor households nearly as accurately as survey-based measures of consumption and wealth; and that combining survey-based measures with mobile phone data produces classifications more accurate than those based on a single data source.
手机数据能提高程序的针对性吗?通过将阿富汗“大推动”反贫困项目的丰富调查数据与项目受益人的详细手机日志相结合，我们研究了机器学习方法在多大程度上可以准确区分符合项目福利条件的超贫困家庭与不符合条件的家庭。我们表明，利用手机数据的机器学习方法可以几乎与基于调查的消费和财富指标一样准确地识别超级贫困家庭;将基于调查的措施与手机数据相结合，产生的分类比基于单一数据源的分类更准确。
14.Firms and inequality when unemployment is high
当失业率高时，企业和不平等
How important are firms for wage inequality in developing countries where structural unemployment is high? Research focused on contexts close to full employment has suggested a substantial role of firms in labor market inequality. Using matched employer–employee data from South Africa, I find that firms explain a larger share of wage variation than in richer countries. I consider drivers of this, documenting first a higher productivity dispersion as found for other developing countries. Secondly, I estimate the separations elasticity by instrumenting wages of matched workers with firm wages, and I find a low separations elasticity. This generates a high degree of monopsony, and the correspondingly high estimated rent-sharing elasticity helps explain the important role of firm wage policies in inequality. Monopsony may be driven by higher unemployment, and regional heterogeneity provides suggestive evidence for this. Such firm-level competitive dynamics may exacerbate inequality in developing countries more generally.
在结构性失业率高的发展中国家，企业对工资不平等的影响有多大?专注于接近充分就业环境的研究表明，企业在劳动力市场不平等中发挥了重要作用。利用来自南非的匹配雇主-雇员数据，我发现与较富裕国家相比，企业对工资差异的解释比例更大。我考虑了这一现象的驱动因素，首先记录了其他发展中国家更高的生产率差异。其次，本文通过将匹配工人的工资与企业工资相匹配来估计离职弹性，发现离职弹性较低。这就产生了高度的垄断，相应地估计的较高的租金分担弹性有助于解释企业工资政策在不平等中的重要作用。高失业率可能是垄断的驱动因素，地区异质性为这一点提供了暗示性证据。这种公司层面的竞争动态可能会更普遍地加剧发展中国家的不平等。
15.Can school environmental education programs make children and parents more pro-environmental?
学校的环境教育项目能使孩子和家长更支持环保吗?
Marcela Jaime, César Salazar, Francisco Alpizar, Fredrik Carlsson
We evaluate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental educational program with value-laded content on children's and parents' knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding the consumption and disposal of plastics.We do this using a randomized field experiment targeting fourth-grade children in Chile.The educational program had a sizeable and a positive impact on children’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices, but no effect on parents' behavior.Heterogeneous effects indicate that the program had a larger effect among children in more vulnerable schools, but there was still no effect on parents.Finally, because parents may ultimately determine what constitutes acceptable behavior for children, promoting permanent changes in behavior will require interventions of this sort to be complemented with other initiatives targeting parents.
我们评估了环境教育项目对儿童和家长关于塑料消费和处置的知识、态度和实践的直接和间接影响。我们在智利进行了一项针对四年级儿童的随机现场实验。该教育项目对儿童的知识、态度和实践产生了相当大的积极影响，但对父母的行为没有影响。异质性效应表明，该计划对弱势学校的儿童有更大的影响，但对家长仍然没有影响。最后，因为父母可能最终决定什么是孩子可接受的行为，促进行为的永久性改变将需要这种干预措施，并与其他针对父母的举措相辅相成。
16.Sharing risk to avoid tragedy: Informal insurance and irrigation in village economies
分担风险避免悲剧:农村经济中的非正式保险和灌溉
Karol Mazur
Irrigation provides insurance against aggregate weather shocks, which can interact with other institutions functioning in village communities. I study this relationship in a model of joint co-operation over irrigation and risk sharing under limited commitment. The model dynamics show that if access to irrigation can be regulated by villagers, the two institutions reinforce each other. However, non-excludable irrigation crowds out risk sharing (as is the case with government-managed irrigation). I estimate the framework on data from three villages in India and use it to quantify the relationship between informal insurance and irrigation, and the welfare impact of irrigation public policy.
灌溉提供了抵御总体天气冲击的保险，这可以与村庄社区的其他运作机构相互作用。本文通过一个有限承诺下的灌溉合作和风险分担模型研究了这一关系。模型动力学表明，如果村民可以调节灌溉，这两种制度就会相互促进。然而，非排他性灌溉挤占了风险分担(就像政府管理的灌溉)。我根据来自印度三个村庄的数据估计了这个框架，并使用它来量化非正式保险和灌溉之间的关系，以及灌溉公共政策对福利的影响。
17.Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries
灾害易发国家的宏观经济结果
Alessandro Cantelmo, Giovanni Melina, Chris Papageorgiou
Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 5.3 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be small, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.
本文利用动态随机一般均衡模型，研究了自然灾害冲击对灾害易发国家宏观经济结果和福利的影响途径。我们使用泰勒投影来求解该模型，该求解方法被证明可以有效地处理根据经验证据校准的高影响天气冲击。我们发现，天气冲击的巨大而持久的影响显著影响了易受灾害影响国家的收入趋同路径。平均而言，与不容易发生灾害的国家相比，这些冲击造成的福利损失相当于消费永久性下降5.3%。人们发现，自筹资金投资于弹性公共基础设施的国家的福利收益很小，而要实现显著的福利收益，国际援助必须相当大。此外，相比在灾害发生后发放援助，援助国在灾害发生前为恢复力融资更具成本效益。
18.He said, she said: The impact of gender and marriage perceptions on self and proxy reporting of labor
他说和她说:性别和婚姻观念对劳动力自我报告和代理报告的影响
Ervin Dervisevic, Markus Goldstein
The accurate estimation of agricultural employment and labor productivity are crucial in understanding opportunities for improvements in productivity and economic growth in developing countries. Available labor statistics mostly come from surveys in developing countries, which mostly rely on one person providing information about all household members. However, there are only a few empirical studies that provide a framework for understanding the potential advantages and disadvantages of using self and proxy reporters to collect such data. Using self and proxy reports from surveys in Ghana, we find significant differences in estimated labor productivity with very different implications in terms of policy-making. We find that differences in reporting are most likely due to gender and marriage satisfaction of both self and proxy reporters, so differences in reporting are due to bias and are not classical measurement error.
准确估计农业就业和劳动生产率对于了解发展中国家提高生产率和经济增长的机会至关重要。现有的劳动力统计数据大多来自发展中国家的调查，这些调查主要依赖于一个人提供所有家庭成员的信息。然而，只有少数实证研究提供了一个框架，以了解使用自我和代理记者收集此类数据的潜在优势和劣势。利用加纳调查的自我报告和代理报告，我们发现估计的劳动生产率存在显著差异，在决策方面的影响也存在很大差异。我们发现，自我报告者和代理报告者的报告差异最可能是由于性别和婚姻满意度的差异，因此报告差异是由于偏见而不是经典的测量误差。
19.Experience in financial decision-making: Field evidence from Malawi
财务决策经验:来自马拉维的实地证据
Xavier Giné, Jessica Goldberg
Fifty-three percent of subjects who owned a high-fee account with a local bank in Malawi did not switch to a new, lower-fee account when given the choice. In contrast, holders of high-fee accounts who had been induced to make more transactions in the past were significantly more likely to adopt the new, cheaper account. Using estimates from a structural model, we find that the different propensity to switch is better explained by differences in the valuation of the new account rather than differences in the cost of switching. Experience using financial products can thus improve financial decision making.
在马拉维当地银行拥有高收费账户的受试者中，53%的人在有选择的情况下没有切换到新的低收费账户。相比之下，过去被诱导进行更多交易的高收费账户持有人更有可能采用新的、更便宜的账户。利用一个结构模型的估计，我们发现，转换的不同倾向可以更好地解释为新账户估值的差异，而不是转换成本的差异。因此，使用金融产品的经验可以改善金融决策。
20.Student loans: Credit constraints and higher education in South Africa
学生贷款:信贷限制与南非的高等教育
Marc Gurgand, Adrien Lorenceau, Thomas Mélonio
The empirical evidence that enrollment in higher education is constrained by access to credit is limited and usually indirect. We use a regression discontinuity design based on the fact that student loans are granted according to a score threshold at a South African credit institution (Eduloan) providing short-term loans at market conditions: we find that the credit constraint is substantial, as it reduces enrollment by more than 40 percentage points in a population of mostly middle-class applicants. However, this effect is entirely concentrated on women, and women granted a loan catch up with men’s enrollment levels. This heterogeneity is not explained by lower incomes in the sample of women. It implies that women have lower access to credit, or that their options for managing without a credit are more limited than men’s.
高等教育入学受到信贷限制的经验证据是有限的，而且通常是间接的。基于这样一个事实，即学生贷款是根据南非一家信贷机构(Eduloan)在市场条件下提供短期贷款的分数门槛发放的:我们使用了一个断点回归设计:我们发现信贷约束是巨大的，因为它减少了以中产阶级为主的申请人人口的入学率超过40个百分点。然而，这种影响完全集中在女性身上，获得贷款的女性赶上了男性的入学水平。这种异质性不能用女性样本的较低收入来解释。这意味着妇女获得信贷的机会较低，或者她们在没有信贷的情况下进行管理的选择比男子更有限。
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