【龙腾网】未来5年，东南亚哪些国家更有潜力?
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What countries in Southeast asia will have more potential in the next 5 years?
未来5年，东南亚哪些国家更有潜力?
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原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：翻译熊 转载请注明出处
Yue Yie, former Advisory Board Member (2017-2019)
Answered Jan 23, 2019 · Upvoted by Sendy Filemon, Born in and been living in Indonesia for 30+ years.
Whether it is within 5 years, 10 years or even 50 years it is always going to be Indonesia. My reason? It’s pretty much a democratic country unlike Vietnam or Cambodia or even Singapore. Despite its flaws Indonesia is a democratic country where freedom of press is still visible, its president can’t hold office for more than 2 terms and its people are willing to experiment for bad or for good, leaders who they feel can bring their country to a brighter future.
Indonesia also has all the other right ingredients to become a major force. It has a huge population with stable population growth, abundant natural resources and a hardworking and tough workforce. Just ask any plantation owners in Malaysia who would they pick as foreign workers and I can guarantee that they would pick as many Indonesians workers that they can get their hands to over Bangladeshis, Burmese or Nepalis etc. It’s a generally accepted fact here that Indonesian workers are known for their hardiness and strength doing menial jobs compared to other nationalities especially in the demanding plantation and construction sectors. I have seen and known a couple of Indonesian guys overseeing the development of a 60 acres palm land on their own. Impressed by their commitment and dedication the owner even gave 10 acres of his palm land to both of them as a reward as means to persuade them to stay and to give a lifetime commitment to continue working on the plantation.
Yue Yie, 前顾问委员会成员(2017-2019)
不管是在5年、10年甚至50年之内，都会是印度尼西亚。我的理由?它是一个民主国家，与越南、柬埔寨甚至新加坡都不一样。尽管存在缺陷，但印尼是一个民主国家，新闻自由依然可见，总统的任期不能超过两届，人民愿意尝试坏的或好的，以及那些认为可以为这个国家带来更光明未来的领导人。
印度尼西亚还具备成为一支主要力量的所有其他有利因素。它人口众多，人口增长稳定，自然资源丰富，劳动人口吃苦耐劳。只要问问马来西亚的种植园主，他们会选择谁作为外籍工人，我可以保证，他们会选择尽可能多的印尼工人。这是一个普遍接受的事实，在这里，印尼工人是众所周知的吃苦耐劳并做着卑微的体力工作，相比其他民族，特别是在要求苛刻的种植园和建筑行业。我曾见过并认识几个印度尼西亚人，他们独自监督一块60英亩的棕榈地的开发。他们的承诺和奉献给农场主留下了深刻的印象，农场主甚至给了他们10英亩的棕榈地作为奖励，作为说服他们留下来的手段，并给予终身承诺，继续在种植园工作。
Unlike let say Vietnam or the Philippines, Indonesia is as big and massive as both China and India but with a mixture of culture from both, a neat thing to have as a foil between the two extremes. It is capable of having its own domestic socio economic ecosystem without having to rely on other major markets to thrive. It is interesting to note that unlike what’s happening with China and India, Indonesia is breaking into the next phase of the digital economy at a stage where the tech revolution is already matured enough for them to reap the benefits without the pitfalls China and India had to face at the start of the economic revolution. Now Indonesia can pick and choose whatever approaches and models that they like and suits them the most.
Saving the best for last, Indonesia is far from being short of high skilled professionals as well, it currently has 2 unicorn class startups in Traveloka and Tokopedia not to mention Go Jek which already making waves across the SEA region as we speak. The scary thing is, it should be noted that both startups wouldn’t be as successful and as big as it is now without the participation of ordinary Indonesians willing to try new things including to subscribe to such services in the first place. A telling sign that ordinary Indonesians are not as closed minded as some people are trying say all over the medias and news.
Antonia Suwandi Hwa Hwa
Jan 23, 2019 · 23 upvotes
I think, being a democratic country is a disadvantage rather than advantage. I’m an Indonesian, but speaking of ASEAN, I highly rate Vietnam. Because they copy everything what China government have done, plain copy-paste. If we see China is now successful, so will Vietnam. Their governments are oligarchic, not autocracy, that makes the power balanced. In other hand, democracy just slows down everything, not good for economy.
我认为，作为一个民主国家是一种劣势而不是优势。我是印尼人，但谈到东盟，我很看重越南。因为他们复制中国所做的一切，简单的复制粘贴。
如果我们看到中国现在成功了，越南也会成功。寡头，这使得权力得以平衡。另一方面，民主只会让一切都慢下来，对经济没有好处。
Yue Yie
Original Author · Jan 31, 2019 · 16 upvotes
You have valid points but I believe Indonesian version of democracy is way better than some other democratic countries and they are learning fast thanks to the internet. The model China and Vietnam are using may be effective in the short term but when it saturates ordinary citizens will end up becoming drones in an ant or bee like ecosystem. The reason why many among the well off among the Koreans, Singaporeans and Chinese leaving their homelands is because of the same drone culture embedded in their socio economic system.
你的观点是正确的，但是我相信印尼版的民主比其他一些民主国家要好得多，多亏了互联网，他们学得很快。中国和越南正在采用的模式可能在短期内是有效的，但当它饱和时，普通公民最终将成为蚂蚁或蜜蜂一样的生态系统中的无人机。
许多韩国人、新加坡人和中国人离开家乡的原因是，他们的社会经济体系中嵌入了同样的无人机文化。
Pushpendra Kumar
Jan 24, 2019 · 27 upvotes including Yue Yie
yeah but economy isn’t everything. Economic growth has to be matched with a healthy society and intellectual capital growth. A china model almost goes against that. Vietnam is in dire straits on that front completely
Indonesia is on a right track like India and people’s willingness to participate in this growth is more important than people forced to participate
是的，但是经济不是一切。经济增长必须与健康的社会和智力资本的增长相匹配。中国模式几乎与此背道而驰。而越南在这方面也完全处于水深火热之中。
印尼正走在印度那样的正确轨道上，人们参与这一增长的意愿比人们被迫参与更重要。
Do Duc Nam
Jun 23, 2019 · 3 upvotes
India are not on the right track, never before, in the 80s, people used to talk about how India will lead the Asia economy ahead of China also having Kaifeng reform, the fact is China lead the Asia economy and Vietnam are slowly learning and follow that path, if India are really on the right track, why India life quality can only compete with SEA countries, tbh can only compare to CMLV countries, Vietnamese consume more electricity, have higher HDI per capital, have better internet connection, live longer than Indian even we have the same GDP per capita, Indian should stop illusion yourself, Indonesia are one the right track for now, same as China, not India.
Even China model against healthy society and intellectual capital growth, why China don’t have caste system, deep religion issue, massive poverty and Chinese students comeback to China after study in Western universities, why Indian don’t comeback to India to make India a better country ? The Vietnam society are better than India society, same as China society are ahead of India’s.
印度没有走在正确的轨道上，从来没有。
在80年代，人们常说印度将如何领导亚洲经济并领先中国，印度也会改革开放。事实上，中国引领着亚洲经济，而越南正在慢慢地学习和遵循这条道路，如果印度真的在正确的轨道上，为什么印度的生活质量只能与东盟国家竞争?
事实上，印度只能和CMLV（意义不明）国家相提并论，越南人消耗更多的电力，有更高的人类发展指数，有更好的互联网连接，比印度人更长寿，即使我们有相同的人均GDP，印度人也应该停止幻想。印尼走在正确的轨道，和中国一样，但印度没有。
即使中国模式是反对健康社会和智力资本增长的，为什么中国没有种姓制度，没有严重的宗教问题，没有大规模的贫困，中国学生在西方大学毕业后回到中国，为什么印度人不回到印度，让印度成为一个更好的国家? 越南社会比印度社会好，中国社会比印度社会好。
Pushpendra Kumar
Jun 24, 2019 · 1 upvote
But looking at your English I am quite concerned about education level in Vietnam
但是看看你的英语，我很关心越南的教育水平。
Ngan Dang
Jul 9, 2019 · 10 upvotes
English is not the main barometer to decide the education level, Japanese and Koreans are not good at English but see how developed they are.Vietnam has some similarity to east asia culture they lean less to the West culture so the gov doesn’t teach much English in school, Vietnamese youth try to teach themselves English, so look how much self drive is that. In my opinion which country ppl have the stronger drive and intelligence will develop faster, I see that growing in VN youth everyday.
英语不是决定教育水平的主要晴雨表，日本人和韩国人不擅长英语，但看看他们有多发达。越南和东亚文化有一些相似之处，他们不那么依赖西方文化，所以政府在学校教的英语不多，越南年轻人试着自学英语，所以看看他们有多大的自觉性。在我看来，哪个国家的人有更强的动力和智能会发展得更快，我每天都能看到越南年轻人的成长。
Lei Wenda (雷文达)
Jan 2 · 1 upvote
He ran out of counterarguments, so he resorted to insults and nitpicking trivial things.
他已经没有反驳的余地了，所以他诉诸于侮辱和鸡毛蒜皮的小事。
Conrad Strife, works at The College and University Experience
Answered Jan 23, 2019
No one can exactly predict who’s going to be successful in the future. All Southeast asian countries I believe have potentials to be successful.
Who said before that United States of America, a colonized country by England (majority) and Spain (minority), who were built by rebels of the English King, would be a very powerful and influential nation in less than a century?
Who said England would be a dominant and powerful country in just 70 years because of their greatest Queen Elizabeth I and her peoples loyalty? Who said it would be the biggest and most powerful Empire during 1700s & 1800s if it was just a pawn or a very poor country 200 years ago?
Who said Singapore would be a very developed country in just a span of a few decades from being a developing/third world country full of drug issues? Who said it would be one of the safest countries today last 70 years or so when the drug crimes were still prent? Singapore became the richest country in South east asia during late 60s or early 70s and it is still today. Some people back in the past said that Singapore would be a failed state because it’s just a city without natural resources. They asked, how could it survive without Malaysia, which has plenty of natural resources? Get back to these people who said these criticisms. Tell them you are a very proud Singaporean. These critics will eventually realize they were wrong.
Conrad Strife, 有在学院和大学工作的经验
没有人能准确地预测谁将来会成功。我相信所有东南亚国家都有成功的潜力。
在此之前，谁说过，由英国国王的叛乱者建立的被英国(多数)和西班牙(少数)殖民统治的美利坚合众国，会在不到一个世纪的时间里成为一个非常强大和有影响力的国家?
谁说英国将在70年内成为一个统治和强大的国家，因为他们最伟大的女王伊丽莎白一世和她的人民的忠诚?谁说它会是18世纪和19世纪最强大的帝国，如果它只是一个卒子或者是200年前一个非常贫穷的国家?
谁说新加坡会在几十年内从一个毒品泛滥的发展中/第三世界国家变成一个非常发达的国家?谁说在过去70年左右的时间里，当毒品犯罪仍然猖獗的时候，它会是最安全的国家之一? 新加坡在60年代末或70年代初成为东南亚最富有的国家，至今仍是如此。过去有些人说新加坡会是一个失败的国家，因为它只是一个没有自然资源的城市。他们质疑，离开了拥有丰富自然资源的马来西亚，它如何能生存?回到那些提出这些批评的人。告诉他们你是一个非常自豪的新加坡人。这些批评者最终会认识到他们错了。
Philippines was the richest country in South east asia and second to Japan in Asia in the last 70 years or so. It was admired by South Koreans during the Philippines glorious days when South Korea was still undeveloped/developing. Its capital was termed as the “Paris of Asia” because of its European beauty. Manila was one of the most destroyed cities during World War II but it happened to recover in just a decade. It was governed by the Americans and Spanish before the natives. It almost had the firsts, from having the first Airline, first metro system, etc. Now it is free and independent, being governed by its own people. Where is it now? How do you judge this country today? Third world? Many Beggars? Street Children? Dirty? Over-populated? Brain Drain? Undisciplined? Mismanaged? What else offending generalizations/stereotypes do you have about this country?
Everything has its potentials as long as you see that it keeps moving on and does not stop/quit. Everything has the potential to succeed as long as you see it is growing, no matter how fast or slow it is. Everything has the potential to fail/fall as long as you witness its degradation, mismanagement, and treacheries.
South east asia has 10 members (East Timor is still not recognized by most SEA countries). I’ll just state my own positive personal opinion about their potentials to be successful. I might sound biased about my own country but it’s not because of my pride but because, I’m just of course, very supportive of my own country, just like how you would be for your own country. But rest assured that this will not be offensive and my opinions will be based from facts as much as possible together with my personal observations and predictions which are very subjective.
POTENTIALS:
（略）
SUMMARY:
Singapore is at Stage 3.
Malaysia is transitioning from Stage 2 to Stage 3
Thailand and Indonesia are at Stage 2
Philippines and Vietnam are transitioning from Stage 1 to Stage 2
Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are at Stage 1
(I did not include Brunei because I haven’t seen Brunei in the list of this so-called “Stage” metrics. Brunei however, has unquestionably well-doing citizens because of its per capita though I do not generalize it at all.
WARNING:
If you are going to comment why this is ranked like this or that, just don’t do it please. We all gather information from the internet and every website shows different rankings. This country might be ranked higher in this website than the other website, but they still almost have the same metrics. If you believe that the website that you saw has the real facts, then stick with it. I won’t forcefully impose the metrics that I got from different websites to your belief. If you believe your website of reference is better, stick with it. I don’t really 100% believe the websites that I used as a reference but for me, they still show at least the average results of their metrics. We don’t know the very exact details especially that different websites give different results but at least, they are all not very far from each other. They are still all related. And for me, this is how I put the average of their metrics based on the different websites I relied on. Good Vibes only please :)
END NOTES:
We are all humans here, South east asians specifically. We are not being defined by the rankings of our country, so let’s get away from any uneducated stereotypes and teases. We compete to reach success and development, not to impose crab mentality. If a country is poorer, let’s support it and give hope, instead of teasing or bullying it. If a country is richer, let’s admire and still support it for its continuous progress.
I believe that if a country had managed to be progressive in the past, then it has no reason not to be progressive again in the future. For those that had not been progressive even in the past, you don’t have any ways to go but to aim higher and higher. When you are at the bottom, the only way for you is to get at the top. If you are at the top, it’s either you stay or you fall.
All ASEAN countries have big potentials. If European unx managed itself to be progressive, why can’t we? ASEAN is a very young regional association. We never started by having everything. But once we grow, we can have everything. There should not be an end to our growth. Humans die, but civilizations must not. Our ancestors left the world worse than we found it. We, together, shall leave the world a better place than we found it. If you are lucky to be born in a better place, then keep the world a better place.
Everyone has differences, everyone has similarities. Every countries has both positive and negative traits. We must respect each other. We, ASEANs, must work as a team in developing our countries and region. If others can do, what’s the reason we can’t?
Post scxt: My highest bet are those from top 1 to top 7. Since Singapore is already developed and Brunei is somewhat developed, I’ll vote Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam (by rank) as countries with most/highest potentials, whilst Laos and Cambodia with moderate potentials, and Myanmar with the least potential as of “today”. This vote of mine is from my personal perspective alone and does not intend to offend anyone. This actually was just requested by a commentator, which is very insignificant for me, but I still put it anyways.
Development growth might change tomorrow, next week, next year, or next decade, we might now know. A quiet country can rise so loudly tomorrow and a loud country can fall so quietly tomorrow. Let’s all just appreciate the potentials of all these countries rather that betting for a winner. There’s no winner. They all have potentials. It’s just that a country has more this than the other but that still doesn’t make that country a winner. They both have it but not always at the same level. Something will always be higher but time changes and so are the statuses of these countries. Country A might have a better “a” but worse “b”. Country B might have a better “b” but worse “a”. In the end, they are just the same, both progressing countries in different ways.
There’s no loser countries here. All countries are winners because all of them have the potentials. If you are categorizing a country as loser, then you don’t deserve to be an ASEAN member. You are ignorant hands-off. We made ASEAN to unite, not to fight. ASEAN is not a loser, therefore it has no loser countries. We are here in this association to lift ourselves up, not to pull someone down just to feel better or higher. No country is more perfect. All countries are perfect in their own ways.
总结：
新加坡处在第三阶段。
马来处在第二和第三阶段的过渡阶段。
泰国和印尼处在第二阶段。
菲律宾和越南处在第一和第二阶段的过渡阶段。
柬埔寨，老挝和缅甸处在第一阶段。
(我没有把文莱包括在内，因为我还没有在这个所谓的“阶段”指标列表中看到文莱。然而，文莱无疑有良好的公民，因为它的人均GDP很高，尽管我没有囊括它。)
提示：
如果你要评论为什么这个排名是这样或那样的，请不要这样做。我们都是从互联网上收集信息，每个网站显示不同的排名。这个国家在这个网站上的排名可能比其他网站高，但它们的指标几乎是一样的。如果你相信你看到的网站是真实的，那就坚持下去。我不会强行把我从不同网站得到的指标强加给你。如果你认为你的参考网站更好，坚持下去。我并不是100%相信我引用的那些网站，但对我来说，它们至少显示了它们的指标的平均结果。我们不知道确切的细节，不同的网站会给出不同的结果。但至少，它们差距并不大，它们仍然是相关的。对我来说，这就是我如何根据我所依赖的不同网站计算出的它们的平均值。请嘴下留情~
最后：
我们都是人，尤其是东南亚人。我们没有被国家的排名所定义，所以让我们远离任何没有受过教育的刻板印象和戏弄。我们竞争是为了获得成功和发展，而不是强加螃蟹心态。如果一个国家更穷，让我们支持它，给它希望，而不是取笑或欺负它。如果一个国家更富有，让我们钦佩它，并继续支持它的不断进步。
我相信，如果一个国家在过去成功地实现了进步，那么它就没有理由在未来不再进步。对于那些甚至在过去也没有进步的人，你没有任何办法，只能更加努力。当你在底层时，唯一的方法就是爬到顶层。如果你是在顶端，要么你留下，要么你倒下。东盟国家都有很大潜力。
如果欧盟设法使自己进步，为什么我们不能?东盟是一个非常年轻的地区组织。我们从不一开始就拥有一切。但是一旦我们发展，我们就可以拥有一切。我们的发展不应该停止。人会死亡，但文明不会灭亡。我们的祖先留下的这个世界的比我们发现它时还要糟糕。我们将共同为世界留下一个比我们发现时更美好的地方。如果你有幸出生在一个更好的地方，那么就让世界变得更好。
每个人都有不同，每个人都有相似之处。每个国家都有其优点和缺点。我们必须互相尊重。我们东盟国家必须在发展中国家和地区团结一致。如果别人能做到，为什么我们不能?
补充：
我们现在可能知道，发展增长可能在明天、下周、明年或下一个十年发生变化。一个安静的国家明天会崛起得如此之快，一个吵闹的国家明天会衰落得如此之快。让我们欣赏所有这些国家的潜力，而不是打赌谁会赢。这里没有赢家，它们都有可能。只是一个国家比另一个国家拥有更多，但这仍然不能使那个国家成为赢家。他们都有，但并不总是在同一水平上。有些东西总是会更高，但是时间会改变，这些国家的地位也会改变。
