经济学人2019.5.11/Collision course
Collision course
碰撞航线
Collision/碰撞，撞击
Course/航线
As tensions rise between America and Iran, both sides need to step back
随着美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，双方都需要让步
The drums of war are beating once again. An American air-craft-carrier strike group is steaming towards the Persian Gulf, joined by b-52 bombers, after unspecified threats from Iran. John Bolton, the national security adviser, says any attack on America or its allies “will be met with unrelenting force”. In Tehran, meanwhile, President Hassan Rouhani says Iran will no longer abide by the terms of the deal signed with America and other world powers, whereby it agreed to strict limits on its nuclear programme in return for economic relief. Iran now looks poised to resume its slow but steady march towards the bomb—giving American hawks like Mr Bolton further grievances.
战鼓再次响起。美国一艘航空母舰战斗群在受到伊朗不明威胁后，正与b-52轰炸机一道驶向波斯湾。美国国家安全顾问约翰•博尔顿(John Bolton)表示，对美国及其盟友的任何攻击“都将遭到无情的武力反击”。与此同时，伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)在德黑兰表示，伊朗将不再遵守与美国和其他世界大国签署的协议条款。根据协议，伊朗同意严格限制其核计划，以换取经济援助。如今，伊朗似乎准备恢复缓慢但以稳健的步伐向制造核弹的目标迈进，这对博尔顿等美国鹰派人士进一步加深了他们的不满。
词汇
air-craft-carrier/ 航空母舰
abide by/遵守，信守
unrelenting/无情的；不屈不挠的
grievances/抱怨，不平（grievance复数）
Just four years ago America and Iran were on a different path. After Barack Obama offered to extend a hand if Iran’s leaders “un-clenched their fist”, the two sides came together, leading to the nuclear deal. That promised to set back the Iranian nuclear programme by more than a decade, a prize in itself, and just possibly to break the cycle of threat and counter-threat that have dogged relations since the Iranian revolution 40 years ago.
就在四年前，美国和伊朗走的是一条不同的道路。在巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)提出，如果伊朗领导人“松开拳头”，他将伸出援手之后，双方走到了一起，达成了核协议。这将使伊朗核计划倒退十多年，这本身就是一个奖赏，而且很可能打破自40年前伊朗革命以来困扰两国关系的威胁与反威胁的循环。
Today hardliners are ascendant on both sides (see Middle East & Africa section). Bellicose rhetoric has returned. Mr Bolton and Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, believe in using economic pressure to topple the Iranian regime and bombs to stop its nuclear programme. In Tehran the mullahs and their Revolutionary Guards do not trust America. They are tightening their grip at home and lashing out abroad. In both countries policy is being dictated by intransigents, who risk stumbling into war.
如今，双方的强硬派都占据了优势(见中东和非洲部分)。好战的言论又回来了。博尔顿和美国国务卿迈克•蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)都认为，应利用经济压力推翻伊朗政权，并使用炸弹阻止其核计划。在德黑兰，毛拉和他们的革命卫队不信任美国。他们正在收紧对国内的控制，并在海外大举出击。两国的政策都是非妥协者决定，他们冒着陷入战争的危险。
词汇
Ascendant/上升的；优越的
Bellicose/好战的；好斗的
Topple/推翻；颠覆；使倒塌
Intransigents/不妥协的人
It is probably too late to save the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (jcpoa). Iran has been complying, but critics in America complain that its temporary restrictions will ultimately legitimise the nuclear programme and that the deal will not stop Iran from producing missiles or sowing murder and mayhem abroad. President Donald Trump pulled America out of the agreement last year, calling it a “disaster”. It is not, but that damage is done. Renewed sanctions on Iran and the threat to punish anyone who trades with it have wrecked what is left of the agreement. Last week America cancelled waivers that let some countries continue to buy Iranian oil. It is extending sanctions to Iran’s metals exports. Instead of reaping the benefits of co-operation, Iran has been cut off from the global economy. The rial has plummeted, inflation is rising and wages are falling. The economy is in crisis.
拯救被称为《联合全面行动计划》(jcpoa)的核协议可能为时已晚。伊朗一直在遵守协议，但美国的批评人士抱怨称，其临时限制将最终使核计划合法化，该协议不会阻止伊朗生产导弹，或在海外制造谋杀和破坏。去年，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布美国退出该协议，称其为一场“灾难”。事实并非如此，但损害已经造成。对伊朗的新一轮制裁，以及惩罚任何与伊朗进行贸易往来的人的威胁，破坏了协议的剩余部分。上周，美国取消了允许一些国家继续购买伊朗石油的豁免。它将制裁范围扩大到伊朗的金属出口。伊朗非但没有从合作中获益，反而被切断了与全球经济的联系。里亚尔暴跌，通货膨胀上升，工资下降。经济正处于危机之中。
词汇
Legitimize/使合法化
Mayhem/骚乱，混乱；故意伤害
Waivers/ [法] 弃权；豁免
Predictably, rather than bringing Iran’s leaders to their knees, America’s belligerence has caused them to stiffen their spines. Even Mr Rouhani, who championed the nuclear deal, has begun to sound like a hawk. Having long hoped that Europe, at least, would honour the promise of the deal, he is exasperated. On the anniversary of America’s exit from the agreement, on May 8th, he said that Iran would begin stockpiling low-enriched uranium and heavy water, which would in sufficient quantities breach its terms. Without economic progress in 60 days, he said, Iran “will not consider any limit” on enrichment. All this suggests that Iran will start moving closer to being able to build a nuclear bomb.
可以预见的是，美国的好战并没有让伊朗领导人屈服，反而让他们更加强硬。就连支持核协议的鲁哈尼，也开始听起来像个鹰派人物。长期以来，他一直希望欧洲至少会信守协议的承诺，但现在他感到愤怒。5月8日是美国退出该协议的周年纪念日，他说伊朗将开始储备低浓缩铀和重水，这将有足够的数量违反协议条款。他说，如果60天内没有经济进展，伊朗“不会考虑任何限制”铀浓缩。所有这一切都表明，伊朗将开始向拥有制造核弹的能力迈进。
词汇
Belligerence/斗争性；好战性；
Exasperated/恼怒的；烦恼的；愤怒的
Stockpiling/储备
Uranium/ [化学] 铀
As he walks his country towards the brink, Mr Rouhani has three audiences in mind. The first is hi sown hardliners, who detest the nuclear deal and have been pressing him to act. He appears to have appeased them, for now. On May 7th the front page of an ultraconservative newspaper declared: “Iran lighting match to set fire to the jcpoa.” He is also trying to get European companies to break with America. He will not succeed. Despite European Union attempts to design mechanisms that allow European businesses to skirt American sanctions, most of them have decided that the American market is too valuable.
在他带领国家走向崩溃之际，鲁哈尼想到了三个听众。第一个是他自己的强硬派，他们憎恨核协议，一直在敦促他采取行动。目前看来，他似乎已经安抚了他们。5月7日，一家极端保守主义报纸的头版宣称:“伊朗点燃火柴点燃了全面协议。他还试图让欧洲公司与美国决裂。他不会成功的。尽管欧盟试图设计一种机制，让欧洲企业绕开美国的制裁，但大多数企业都认为美国市场太有价值了。
词汇
Detest/憎恨；厌恶
Ultraconservative/极端保守主义的
Iran’s most important audience is America, with which it seems to be playing an old game. Iranian leaders have long seen the nuclear programme as their best bargaining chip with the West. Though they have claimed that it is peaceful, UN inspectors have found enough evidence to suggest otherwise. The technology is the same whether power or a weapon is the ultimate goal. Iran’s centrifuges can produce a bomb faster than sanctions can topple the regime, goes the logic of hardliners. But they are wielding a double-edged sword. The threat of obtaining a nuclear weapon is useless if it does not seem credible. And if it is credible, it risks provoking military action by America or Israel.
伊朗最重要的听众是美国，他们似乎在玩一场老游戏。长期以来，伊朗领导人一直将核计划视为他们与西方讨价还价的最佳筹码。尽管他们声称这是和平的，但联合国核查人员已经发现了足够的证据表明事实并非如此。无论最终的目标是力量还是武器，技术都是一样的。强硬派的逻辑是，伊朗的离心机制造核弹的速度比制裁推翻政权的速度还要快。但他们正在挥舞一把双刃剑。如果核武器的威胁看上去不可信，那么它就毫无用处。如果这是可信的，就有可能引发美国或以色列的军事行动。
词汇
Centrifuge/离心机
Wielding/运用；挥动
The potential for miscalculation is large and growing. American troops are within miles of Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria. Its warships are nose to nose with Iranian patrols in the Gulf. America recently declared the Guards a terrorist group; then Iran did the same to American forces in the Middle East. Officials on both sides say their intent is peaceful, but who can believe them? America’s accusations that Iran has been planning to attack American forces or its allies in the Middle East are suspiciously unspecific. Violence by Iran’s proxies may be just the sort of provocation that leads America to launch a military strike. Mr Pompeo once suggested that he preferred American sorties to nuclear talks with Iran. Mr Bolton penned an article in 2015 in the New York Times entitled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran”. Now even Mr Rouhani appears to agree that the way forward lies with provocation and escalation.
误判的可能性很大，而且还在不断增加。美国军队距离伊朗支持的驻伊拉克和叙利亚部队只有几英里。它的军舰与伊朗在海湾地区的巡逻船势均力敌。美国最近宣布这些警卫为恐怖组织;然后伊朗对美国在中东的军队也做了同样的事情。双方官员都表示，他们的意图是和平的，但是谁能相信他们呢?美国指责伊朗一直计划袭击美国军队或其在中东的盟友，这一指责令人生疑地含糊不清。伊朗代理人的暴力可能正是导致美国发动军事打击的挑衅。蓬佩奥曾表示，比起与伊朗的核谈判，他更喜欢美国的武装出击。2015年，博尔顿在《纽约时报》(New York Times)上发表了一篇题为《停止伊朗的核弹，轰炸伊朗》(To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran)的文章。现在，就连鲁哈尼似乎也同意，前进的道路在于解决不断扩大的纷争。
词汇
Miscalculation/误算
Accusation/控告，指控；谴责
Proxies- proxy/代理人
Provocation/挑衅；激怒；挑拨
Escalation/增加；扩大；逐步上升
A nuclear Iran would spur proliferation across the Middle East. Bombing would not destroy Iranian nuclear know-how, but it would drive the programme underground, making it impossible to monitor and thus all the more dangerous. The only permanent solution is renewed negotiation. Mr Trump, a harsh critic of America’s foreign wars, therefore needs to keep the likes of Mr Bolton in check. He will face pressure from hardline politicians at home and opposition in the region, not least from Israel.
拥有核武器的伊朗将刺激整个中东地区的核扩散。轰炸不会摧毁伊朗的核技术，但会将核计划转入地下，使其无法监控，因而更加危险。唯一的永久解决办法是重新谈判。因此，严厉批评美国对外战争的特朗普需要控制住博尔顿这样的人物。他将面临来自国内强硬派政客和该地区反对派的压力，尤其是来自以色列的压力。
词汇
Spur/骑马疾驰；给予刺激
Proliferation/增殖，扩散；分芽繁殖
know-how/诀窍；实际知识；专门技能
Doing deals, though, is a Trump trademark. The president has shown an ability to change direction abruptly, as with North Korea. A new war is not in his interest, even if being hard on Iran is part of his brand. The Europeans can help him by urging Iran to keep within the deal—and condemning it if it leaves. Mr Rouhani, who spurned Mr Trump in the past, now says he is willing to talk with the deal’s other signatories if today’s agreement is the basis. That has so far been a non-starter for the Trump administration. It should not be. As the threat of a conflict grows, all sides need to head back to the negotiating table.
然而，做交易是特朗普的一个标志。总统已经显示出突然改变方向的意图，就像朝鲜一样。一场新的战争不符合他的利益，即使对伊朗采取强硬态度是他的招牌的一部分。欧洲可以通过敦促伊朗遵守协议来帮助他，如果伊朗离开，欧洲还可以谴责伊朗。鲁哈尼过去曾对特朗普不屑一顾，现在他表示，如果以今天的协议为基础，他愿意与该协议的其他签署国进行谈判。到目前为止，这对特朗普政府来说是不可能的。不应该是这样。随着冲突威胁的增加，各方都需要回到谈判桌上来。
词汇
Condemning/谴责；处刑
Spurn/摒弃；藐视
Signatory/签名人，签约国
