Just how gummed up are supply chains?

A number of measures suggest that disruptions are historically high—and uncertainty lies ahead

THE GENERAL public learned far more about supply chains last year than it probably cared to. A host of disruptions to production and shipping interacted with soaring demand for goods to produce bare shelves and rising prices. Although goods have been in short supply, the number of measures tracking supply-chain woes has proliferated at an impressive pace in recent months. All paint a picture of historically high levels of disruptions, and an uncertain path ahead.

去年普通民众对供应链的了解远比他们所关心的要多。众多生产和运输的中断与物资急剧短缺相互作用导致了货架空空如也与价格上涨。尽管货物供应短缺，但最近几个月追踪供应链物流困境的手段激增并令人印象深刻。都描绘出一片破坏程度到历史新高的画面，并且前途未卜。

gum up /ɡʌm ʌp/搞乱；把事情搞糟；使出毛病

A host of ：一大群，众多，大量

One gauge is an “ocean timeliness indicator”, published by Flexport, an American logistics firm. This reports how long it takes a shipment to move from the supplier’s warehouse to the departure gate of the destination port, for two big freight routes out of China: to Europe and America. Three years ago the journey to Europe took just under 60 days, and that to America just under 50. Travel times then rose steadily after the pandemic struck. But the trends for the two routes have diverged a little in recent months. Shipping times to Europe have fallen from above 110 days down to 108. Transport to America, at 114 days’ total journey time, takes longer than ever (see chart, top panel).

一个测量工具是一家美国物流公司Flexport推出的“海洋航线指示”。它可以通报两条主要航线（中国到美国和欧洲）货物从供应商仓库离库到目的地港口的入港花费的航运时间。三年前，从中国到欧洲的航运时间不超过60天，去美国不超过50天。但自疫情爆发后，航运时间稳步上涨。但这两条航线最近几个月发展趋势有些不一样。到欧洲的航运时间从110天降至108天。去美国，则需要花114天，比以往任何时候都长。（见图表，顶端曲线图）

diverge   v. /daɪˈvɜːdʒ/  1.~ (from sth) 分叉；岔开•The parallel lines appear to diverge. 这些平行线像是岔开了。 2.~ (from sth) ( formal ) ( of opinions, views, etc. 意见、观点等 ) 分歧；相异 •Opinions diverge greatly on this issue. 在这个问题上意见分歧很大。 3.~ from sth . 偏离；背离；违背•to diverge from the norm 与常态不符

A global supply-chain pressures index, compiled from a variety of indicators by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,tells much the same story. Before the pandemic the highest-ever reading of the index (which the researchers have computed back to the 1990s) was in April 2011.Then, troubles associated with an earthquake and tsunami in Japan pushed the index up to 1.7 standard deviations above its long-run average. The measure surged much higher in spring 2020, to 3.9 standard deviations above the mean;last year it rose even further still, reaching 4.4 in October.It has since retreated, but only by a touch, continuing to signal a high level of stress (see chart, bottom panel).

由纽约联邦储备银行经济学家们多种指示数据编译而来的全球供应链压力指数可以很好的说明情况。在新冠大流行之前，最高的可读指标是2011年的4月份（该数据研究者计算至90年代）。当时，由日本的地震和海啸带来的困难将指数推高到高于长期平均1.7的标准差。2020年春天，该指标更是大幅度上升，高于平均3.9的标准差；去年，该数字还要高，10月份更是达到4.4的标准差。从去年10月开始，峰值开始下降，但幅度不大，仍持续显示供应链承受的高水平压力（看图表，底部折线图）。

Compile  v. /kəmˈpaɪl/ 1.编写（书、列表、报告等）；编纂 •We are trying to compile a list of suitable people for the job. 我们在努力编制一份适合做这项工作的人员名单。2.( computing 计 ) 编译

Another indicator, maintained by Capital Economics,a consultancy, takes account of both goods and labour shortages across the G7group of large economies.It also suggests that stresses remained intense in late 2021.Freight rates, for their part, rocketed during the first nine months of 2021, before flattening off in the final quarter of last year. Yet as high rates become negotiated into longer-duration shipping contracts, elevated costs could persist into 2023 and beyond.

由凯投宏观（Capital Economics，英国一家经济研究咨询公司）维护的另一个指标将G7大型经济集团的货物与劳动短缺都考虑进去。该指标表明到2021年底，供应链压力依旧持续。G7的航运费2021年前9个月如坐火箭一样飙升，之后的第四季度平缓下来。但是，随着高运费已经谈判进入到长期航运合同中去，预计高运输成本将持续到2023年甚至更长时间。

Whether and when matters improve depends on the course that both the virus and the global economic recovery now take. The appearance of the Omicron variant in parts of China could lead to lock downs and further disruptions at ports.In America,a record number of covid-19 cases has meant that fewer longshoremen and truck drivers are in work. Hopes are dimming that a pause in production,associated with China's new year holiday in early February,might allow ports to work through existing backlogs.

无论如何，供应链问题的改善取决于疫情及全球经济复苏两者的进程。奥密克戎毒株在中国部分出现会导致封锁及港口进一步的中断。在美国，新冠确诊数据则表明在岗工作的港口工人及货车司机减少。由于2月上旬中国新年假期出现的生产中断可能会让港口干完已存在的挤压工作，但这个希望越来越渺茫。

Longshoremen /ˈlɒŋˌʃɔːmən/ n. 码头工人，港口装卸工

Backlog n. /ˈbæklɒɡ/积压的工作

Respite could come instead from cooling demand in the rich world,particularly in America,which in 2021 displayed a voracious appetite for all manner of goods. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, a bank, have constructed an indicator of supply-chain stress that looks at both supply and demand conditions. Their measure suggests that the latter are mainly responsible for the easing of pressures since late 2021.Trade growth has decelerated, for instance, thanks to reduced demand for both consumer and capital goods.

相反，富裕国家需求的降温可能会带来缓解，尤其是在美国。2021年，美国对各种商品都表现出了巨大的需求。摩根斯坦利银行的分析师们构建了一个衡量供应链压力的指标，该指标同时考虑供给和需求状况。他们的指标表明，后者（需求）是自2021年底以来压力缓解的主要原因。例如，由于对消费品和生产资料的需求减少，贸易增长已经减速。

respite  n./ˈrespaɪt/ 1.~ (from sth) 暂停；暂缓•The drug brought a brief respite from the pain. 药物暂时缓解了疼痛。respite care暂缓性照料2.短暂的延缓；喘息 •His creditors agreed to give him

voracious  adj. /vəˈreɪʃəs/ 1.饭量大的；贪吃的；狼吞虎咽的•a voracious eater 贪吃的人；2.（对信息、知识）渴求的；求知欲强的•a voracious reader 求知欲极强的读者

Flexport predicts that, although Americans' demand for goods relative to their appetite for services will remain unusually high in 2022, the imbalance should become less pronounced in the months ahead than it was over the past year.If people start to hear a little less about supply-chain snarls, their own shifting shopping habits may explain why.

Flexport预测，尽管美国人对商品的需求相对于他们对服务的需求将在2022年保持异常高的水平，但与去年相比，这种不平衡在未来几个月应该会变得不那么明显。如果人们开始少听到一些关于供应链的混乱新闻，那可能是他们自己转变的购物习惯起了作用。

pronounced ：这里是明显，显著的意思

snarl /snɑːl/  动词. 1.[ V ] ~ (at sb/sth) ( of dogs, etc. 狗等 ) 龇牙低吼 •The dog snarled at us. 狗朝我们低声吼叫。2.~ (sth) (at sb) 咆哮着说；不耐烦地说 •‘Get out of here!’ he snarled. “滚开！”他吼道。3.ˌsnarl ˈupˌsnarl sth←→ˈup (1) 阻塞；妨碍（某事物）•The accident snarled up the traffic all day. 这次事故使交通堵塞了整整一天。(2)（使）缠结•The sheets kept getting snarled up. 床单老缠到一起  n. （动物的）呲牙低吼；愤怒叫嚷（声），咆哮（声）；缠结物；混乱，堵塞

《经济学人商论》2022年2月刊