短期主义 / Short-Termism

「释义」

短期主义是指优先考虑眼前的利益、快速执行的项目和短期的结果，而不是长期的结果和高瞻远瞩的行动。短期主义是由于某些认知上的偏差造成的。

「应用场景」

反对短期主义的论点有一大预设前提，就是市场整体低估了长期投资的价值，因此长期项目的价值未能完全反映在股价上。诚然，市场有时会出差错，但表达出这种担忧的人目前尚未拿出可靠的证据充分支持自己的呼吁。

A major premise of short-termism worriers is that markets systematically undervalue long-term investments, which are consequently not fully reflected in stock prices. Although markets do sometimes err, people who express such concern have thus far not provided solid empirical evidence to justify their alarm.

二十年来，关于短期主义的耸人听闻的警告层出不穷，成长型企业，即股价主要取决于对其长期回报的期望的企业大幅度增值。截至2020年第三季度末，纳斯达克100指数（很大比重为科技公司）中的公司占了美国股市资本总额的1/4以上，而且市盈率很高，反映出市场希望根据企业未来前景（而非目前收益）评估其价值。

Indeed, over the past two decades, as dire warnings regarding short-termism have proliferated, growth companies—whose value largely reflects expectations about their payoff in the long term—have enjoyed substantial appreciation in value. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, the companies in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 made up more than one-quarter of the total capitalization of U.S. stock markets, and they were trading at high price/earnings ratios, reflecting the willingness of the markets to attach great value to companies on the basis of their future prospects rather than their current earnings.

以上文字选自《哈佛商业评论》中文版2021年1月刊《别被妖魔化的短期主义吓到》

卢西恩·别布丘克（Lucian A. Bebchuk） | 文

马冰仑 丨编辑