每天一篇经济学人 | A new outbreak of disease ...

Monkeypox is not covid mk2, but it needs to be nipped in the bud

猴痘并不是covid mk2，但需要将其消灭在萌芽状态

A new outbreak of disease

新的疾病爆发

Since britain reported a case of monkeypox on May 7th, more than 300 further instances have been noted across the world. The disease, which is usually confined to Africa, is now present in at least 17 countries in Europe and five other non-African ones.

自从5月7日英国报告了一起猴痘病例以来，世界各地又发现了300多起猴痘病例。这种疾病通常局限于非洲，现在至少在17个欧洲国家和5个非洲以外的国家出现。

The symptoms (fever, exhaustion and pustules which spread across the face and body) are similar to those of smallpox, a disease that once plagued humanity but has now been exterminated. Some researchers suggest that, by ending routine anti-smallpox vaccination, this extermination may have opened the door for monkeypox to spread.

【1】pustule 脓包

这种疾病的症状(发烧、疲惫和脓疱遍布面部和身体)与天花相似。天花曾一度困扰人类，但现在已被消灭。一些研究人员认为，这种消灭是通过结束常规的天花疫苗接种，这可能为猴痘的传播打开了大门。

The World Health Organisation (who) says the illness rarely kills healthy adults if treated early, but can be dangerous for children, pregnant women and the immunocompromised. Those caveats are important. There is no recorded case of anyone outside Africa having died of monkeypox. But in that continent, where health care is often poor, it is fatal 3-6% of the time. Also, a strain prevalent in Congo is much more likely to kill than the west African variant now spreading outside the continent.

【1】caveat 警告；预告

世界卫生组织(who)表示，如果及早治疗，这种疾病很少会导致健康成年人死亡，但其对儿童、孕妇和免疫功能低下的人可能是危险的。这些警告很重要。没有非洲以外的人死于猴痘的记录。但在非洲大陆，那里的医疗保健通常很差，致命率为3-6%。此外，在刚果流行的一种毒株比现在在非洲大陆以外传播的西非变种更有可能导致死亡。

Previous European outbreaks have been limited to travellers from Africa, or their close contacts. The first case found in Britain this month involved someone recently arrived from Nigeria. Since then, the disease has spread more widely. By May 25th Britain had diagnosed 71 cases. Spain had reported 119. Portugal, 39. Argentina, Austria and Denmark confirmed infections on May 23rd.

以往的欧洲疫情仅限于来自非洲的旅行者或其密切接触者。本月在英国发现的第一例病例涉及一名最近从尼日利亚来的人。从那以后，这种疾病传播得更广了。截至5月25日，英国已确诊71例。西班牙报告了119例。葡萄牙39例。阿根廷、奥地利和丹麦于5月23日确诊感染病例。

Monkeypox is most frequently transmitted by skin-to-skin contact, bodily fluids or contaminated material such as clothes and bedding. Many of the recent European infections have been linked to big events, including a gay-pride parade in Spain and a fetish festival in Belgium. Hans Kluge, the who’s regional director for Europe, has warned that “transmission could accelerate” during the summer months, fuelled by festivals and parties. He recommends thorough handwashing and protective equipment for health workers. Infected people and their contacts have been advised to isolate for 21 days and health authorities are using contact-tracing to minimise the spread.

猴痘最常通过皮肤接触、体液或受污染的物质(如衣服和被褥)传播。最近欧洲的许多感染病例都与大事件有关，包括西班牙的同性恋骄傲游行和比利时的恋物节。世卫组织欧洲地区主任汉斯•克鲁格警告称，在节日和派对的推动下，夏季“传播可能会加速”。他建议卫生工作者彻底的洗手并配备防护设备。被感染者及其接触者已被建议隔离21天，卫生部门正在通过接触者追踪将传播降至最低。

But the virus is not as rapidly transmissible as sars-cov-2. Nor does it mutate as quickly as coronaviruses are prone to do, reducing the risk of it suddenly becoming more dangerous. And Western countries know how to deal with it. The last big outbreak outside Africa was in 2003, when monkeypox-carrying prairie dogs caused more than 70 cases in America. That incident was quickly contained.

不过这种病毒的传播速度不如新冠。它也不像冠状病毒那样迅速变异，这降低了它突然变得更危险的风险。西方国家知道如何应对。上一次非洲以外的大爆发是在2003年，当时携带猴痘的草原土拨鼠在美国导致了70多起病例。这一事件很快得到了控制。

Vaccination can help people recover even after they have been infected, and smallpox jabs (of which many countries retain large stocks) are estimated to be 85% effective against monkeypox. Some places are already “ring-vaccinating” the personal contacts of those infected, both to protect the individuals in question and to break the chain of infection. So, although the number of cases will probably continue to rise for a while, monkeypox is most unlikely to lead to lockdowns in the way that covid-19 did.

接种疫苗可以帮助人们在感染后恢复健康，天花疫苗(许多国家保留了大量天花疫苗)估计对猴痘有85%的疗效。一些地方已经对感染者的个人接触者进行“环形疫苗接种”(为感染者周围的密切接触者接种疫苗)，这样既能保护相关的人，又能打破感染链。因此，尽管病例数量可能会在一段时间内继续上升，但猴痘最不可能像新冠那样导致封锁。