经济学人 | 生育率暴跌，怎么办（下）
私V：guanguan6366 获取本篇文章完整精读笔记文档。
选段及译文来自《经济学人商论》，笔记由译群人团队原创，非商业用途。
What might that be? People often tell pollsters they want more children than they have. This gap between aspiration and reality could be in part because would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment. Yet even if these are fixed, economic development is still likely to lead to a fall in fertility below the replacement rate. Pro-family policies have a disappointing record. Singapore offers lavish grants, tax rebates and child-care subsidies—but has a fertility rate of 1.0.
这种改变可能是什么呢？在民意调查中，人们常常表示他们本来想要更多孩子。这种愿望与现实之间的差距在一定程度上可能是因为想要生育子女的人——他们实际上是在补贴未来没有孩子的退休人口——无法负担抚养更多孩子的成本，或者是因为其他政策上的失败，例如住房短缺或生育医疗不足。然而，即使这些问题得到解决，经济发展仍然可能导致生育率降至更替率以下。鼓励成家育儿的政策一直效果不佳。新加坡提供慷慨的补助、退税和育儿补贴，但生育率只有1.0。
in part because...部分是由于……，表示“部分原因”的词还可以有：
partly because…
Some people are unwilling to attend the classes partly because of the cost involved. 有些人不愿来上课，部份原因是所需的费用问题。
due in part to sth
Her success was due in part to luck. 她的成功在某种程度上是由于运气好。
thanks partly to sth
be partly to do sth 与…有一定关系
be partly to blame …要负一定责任
Would-be只能放在名词前修饰，表示：used to describe sb who is hoping to become the type of person mentioned （形容想要成为…的人）未来的
a would-be actor 想要成为演员的人
advice for would-be parents 对即将成为父母的人的忠告
我们曾经在TikTok这篇笔记中总结过连词符的用法，这里would-be属于这种情况：连接复杂形容词当形容词由两个或多个单词组成时，需要用连词符将它们连接在一起。例如：good-looking（好看的）、well-known（知名的）、high-tech（高科技的）。
[长句拆解] This gap between aspiration and reality could be in part because would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment.这句话比较长，但分析一下结构就会发现并不复杂。
句子主干是This gap could be because A or because of B.A是从句：would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children
在这个从句中，有一个插入成分：who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners 这个插入成分其实是一个定语从句，引导词who的先行词是would-be parents。
这个插入成分中还有一个插入语in effect（实际上）。
childless的-less词缀也讲下，构成形容词，有两种意思，一个是without 没有；无，比如：treeless 没有树木meaningless 无意义
childless也是属于这种情况。
还有一种意思是：not doing; not affected by 不做；不受影响，比如：tireless 孜孜不倦selfless 无私
Pensioner指a person who is receiving a pension, especially from the government 领养老金（或退休金、抚恤金）者，还有一种说法可以与之互换：senior citizen 资深公民，老年人，是一种委婉说法，尤指退休者
Pro-这个词缀大家应该都很熟悉了，构成形容词，表示in favour of; supporting 拥护；支持；亲，比如pro-democracy 拥护民主。
本段中的pro-family，顾名思义，就是promiting family life and traditional moral values 崇尚家庭生活和传统道德观的。与之相对的是anti-, 表示opposed to; against 反；反对，比如：anti-tank weapons 反坦克武器；antisocial 反社会
这段话中，我们还要重点关注一个小词：record. [ sing.] ~ (on sth)the facts that are known about sb/sth's past behaviour, character, achievements, etc. （有关过去的）事实；记录；经历；功过
在说“业绩表现”的时候，我们可以用record或track record，特别是在写个人陈述、公司简介的时候，用得很多：
The airline has a good safety record . 这家航空公司的安全情况一向很好。
He has an impressive record of achievement. 他所取得的一系列成就令人赞叹。
The job needs someone with a good track record in investment.这份工作需要一个在投资方面有良好业绩的人。
不过，record是双向的，它就是指过往表现，不论好坏：The report criticizes the government's record on housing. 这份报告批评了政府在住房问题上的所作所为。
Unleashing the potential of the world’s poor would ease the shortage of educated young workers without more births. Two-thirds of Chinese children live in the countryside and attend mostly dreadful schools; the same fraction of 25- to 34-year-olds in India have not completed upper secondary education. Africa’s pool of young people will continue to grow for decades. Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also cast more young migrants as innovators in otherwise-stagnant economies. Yet encouraging development is hard—and the sooner places get rich, the sooner they get old.
在生育率不提高的情况下，释放世界贫困人口的潜力可以缓解受过教育的年轻劳动力不足的问题。三分之二的中国儿童生活在农村，大多在条件极简陋的学校就读；在印度，同样比例的25至34岁人口没有完成高中教育。未来几十年，非洲的年轻人口将继续增长。提高他们的技能本身是好事，同时还可能让更多的年轻移民进入原本将停滞不前的经济体，发挥创新者的作用。但是，促进发展很难——而且一个地区越快富裕起来，也就越快老龄化。
Africa’s pool of young people will continue to grow for decades.在这句话中，pool的意思是指某个特定的资源或群体，即非洲年轻人的总体数量或群体。
来几个例句：
The company is looking to hire from a diverse pool of candidates. 公司正在寻找来自不同背景的候选人。
The school organized a talent show to showcase the diverse skill pool of its students. 学校组织了一场才艺表演，展示学生们的各种技能。
The government is investing in programs to tap into the country's growing entrepreneurial pool. 政府正在投资计划，以开发该国不断增长的企业家资源。
再来看这句话：Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also cast more young migrants as innovators in otherwise-stagnant economies.
cast的意思应该是：[ VN] ~ sb (as sth)~ sb (in sth)to describe or present sb in a particular way 把某人描写成；把某人表现为，比如：
He cast himself as the innocent victim of a hate campaign. 他把自己说成是一场诋毁声誉行为的无辜受害者。
The press were quick to cast her in the role of ‘the other woman’. 新闻界很快把她描述成“第三者”的角色。
Cast more young migrants as innovators，就是把更多年轻移民打造成创新者的角色。
Otherwise指除此以外、在其他情况下或者在没有其他改变时。它用于描述一个对比或对照，强调在特定情况下所提到的情况与其他情况的不同之处。
Otherwise-stagnant economy指原本停滞不前的经济中，通过将更多年轻移民视为创新者cast more young migrants as innovators，能够产生积极的影响。
换句话说，如果不将他们视为创新者，那么在这个经济中就没有其他改变或希望。在翻译的时候，otherwise在这种语境下经常处理为“原本/平时如何如何”，比如
an otherwise beautiful country一个原本很美丽的国家。
The decorations for the games have lent a splash of colour to an otherwise drab city.运动会的装饰为这个平时乏味的城市增添了几抹色彩。
Eventually, therefore, the world will have to make do with fewer youngsters—and perhaps with a shrinking population. With that in mind, recent advances in AI could not have come at a better time. An über-productive AI-infused economy might find it easy to support a greater number of retired people. Eventually AI may be able to generate ideas by itself, reducing the need for human intelligence. Combined with robotics, AI may also make caring for the elderly less labour-intensive. Such innovations will certainly be in high demand.
因此，最终世界将不得不接受年轻人口减少的现实——而且可能还要接受总人口的萎缩。考虑到这一点，AI近来的进展可谓恰逢其时。一个大量运用AI、生产率超高的经济体可能更容易赡养更多退休人口。最终，AI可能会自己产生想法，减少对人类智能的需求。与机器人技术相结合后，AI还可以降低照顾老人的劳动强度。这样的创新必然有着巨大的需求。
Make do with表示将就，凑合：
We were in a hurry so we had to make do with a quick snack. 我们很匆忙，只好将就着来了点小吃。
Why make do with a copy if you can afford the genuine article? 如果你买得起正品，为什么还拿复制品凑合呢？有点“权宜之计”的意思。那么，“权宜之计”如果用其他词性（比如名词或形容词）表达，还有哪些选择呢：
fudge /fʌdʒ/: N an unsatisfactory compromise reached to evade a difficult problem or controversial issue 不太令人满意的折中方案
This solution is a fudge rushed in to win cheers at the party conference.这个解决方案是为了赢得党的会议的赞誉而仓促搞出来的表面文章。
该词也可以用作动词：V-T If you fudge something, you avoid making a clear and definite decision, distinction, or statement about it. 模糊处理
Both have fudged their calculations and avoided specifics.双方都模糊处理了其计算结果并回避了细节。
palliative /ˈpæliətɪv/本意就是医学上的“治标措施”:
( medical 医 ) a medicine or medical treatment that reduces pain without curing its cause 治标药物；缓解剂；治标措施；保守疗法, 可引申为“权宜之计”：(formal usually disapproving ) an action, a decision, etc. that is designed to make a difficult situation seem better without actually solving the cause of the problems 权宜之计；消极措施；缓冲剂，比如：
The loan was a palliative, not a cure, for ever-increasing financial troubles.贷款对于日益增长的财政困难是一种权宜之计而非根治。
用作形容词也可：palliative treatment 保守疗法short-term palliative measures 短期的权宜之计
Sticking-plaster，来自于sticking plaster, 即橡皮膏，创可贴，加个连字符就是形容词：dealing with a problem in a temporary and unsatisfactory way 权宜:
a sticking-plaster approach/solution/measure
makeshift，形容词：[ usually before noun ] used temporarily for a particular purpose because the real thing is not available 临时替代的；权宜的，比如：
A few cushions formed a makeshift bed. 临时用几个垫子拼了一张床。
Expedient /ɪkˈspiːdiənt/也可表达类似的概念：
ADJ If it is expedient to do something, it is useful or convenient to do it, even though it may not be morally right. 权宜的，比如：
Governments frequently ignore human rights abuses in other countries if it is politically expedient to do so.如果在政治上对自己有利，政府经常忽视其他国家侵犯人权的行为。
quick and dirty：made or produced very quickly but not very well 粗制滥造的，临时应急的；暂时凑合使用的；权宜之计的，【一般用于贬义】：
European officials last month unveiled plans for a quick and dirty tax policy to apply to big digital firms, in theory by the end of the year.上月，欧盟官员公布计划，将对大型数字企业实行临时税收政策，理论上会在今年年底实施。
With that in mind, recent advances in AI could not have come at a better time. 这句话中的could not have come at a better time是一种强调的表达方式，通过否定预期和比较级，用来表示某件事情发生的时机非常适宜，强调AI的进步恰好发生在一个非常好的时机。所以，我们可以提炼出这样的写作句式：sth. could not have come at a better time.某件事的发生恰逢其时。
我们再来认识一下这个词缀：uber- ，也是文中的über-，这个词缀来自德语，构成名词和形容词，表示of the greatest or best kind; to a very large degree 最好的；超级的。比如：
His girlfriend was a real uber-babe, with long blonde hair and a big smile. 他的女友是个超级靓妞，一头长长的金发，脸上带着灿烂的笑容。
The movie stars the uber-cool Jean Reno. 超级酷哥让•雷诺演出这部影片。
什么叫AI-infused？先看Infuse的词义：[ VN] ~ A into B~ B with A( formal ) to make sb/sth have a particular quality 使具有，注入（某特性）
Her novels are infused with sadness. 她的小说充满哀伤。An AI-infused economy就是说在这个经济体中大量运用AI技术，意思和后面出现的-intensive有点类似，比如： ...the development of capital-intensive farming....资本密集型农业的发展。
If technology does allow humanity to overcome the baby bust, it will fit the historical pattern. Unexpected productivity advances meant that demographic time-bombs, such as the mass starvation predicted by Thomas Malthus in the 18th century, failed to detonate. Fewer babies means less human genius. But that might be a problem human genius can fix.
如果技术真的能帮助人类度过婴儿荒，那也将符合历史规律。过往意想不到的生产率进步意味着人口定时炸弹并未引爆，例如托马斯·马尔萨斯（Thomas Malthus）在18世纪预测的大饥荒就没有出现。新生儿减少意味着人类才智减少。但人类才智也许能解决这个问题。
“隐患”可以怎么表达呢？除了hazard, danger之外，通过本段，我们掌握一个词组time bomb：a situation that is likely to cause serious problems in the future，来两个关于失业率的例句：
Rising unemployment is a political time bomb for the government. 日益严重的失业问题对政府来说是一枚政治上的定时炸弹。
Unemployment is building up into a social time bomb across the industrialized world.失业正成为工业化社会中的一种社会性潜在破坏因素。
本专题完。
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